2019 NFL Picks Week 9: Relegate the Titans
As an expert on European Football (I listen to one podcast), relegation is a wonderful thing. Each year, the worst three teams from the top division are relegated to the division below and replaced with the most worthy teams from that pool. It’s kind of like if the Bengals Jets and Dolphins had their salary cap cut down next year because of their poor performance, and in their place we had…yeah we don’t have any minor leagues for American Football, so the idea fizzles a bit. Either way, I want to relegate the Tennessee Titans! I’m sick of them managing to somehow both win and lose games they shouldn’t, and this past week’s win-and-cover-because-of-a-blown-call was the final straw. Most people don’t know they exist, and it’s time the Titans just went away. On to the picks!
Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I got this line before it moved all the way up to 10.5 points, and I was feeling great about it when the Niners had a 14-point lead in the third quarter. I’m still not entirely sure how they managed to stop scoring points and give up an 88-yard touchdown to make it all fall apart, but I guess that’s why you never go all-in on one game’s spread. There’s always next time! 49ers -8
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs. Houston Texans
Jacksonville isn’t ACTUALLY at home here, as they’ll be “hosting” the Texans in London. Even at a neutral site, I’m not sure this line makes sense; Houston just lost their best defender to a season-ending injury, and the Jaguars rank higher than them in DVOA on both sides of the ball. I’m not positive Minshew Magic is a real thing, but I definitely believe in that mustache. Jaguars +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Chicago Bears
Nothing about the recent performance of these two teams suggests this is a smart pick, but the way the Eagles have burnt me in the past has left too much of a mark. They went on the road last week and beat a team eerily similar to the Bears, but it still took them a while to get going. A desperate Chicago team here should be able to contain a Philadelphia offense still looking for a vertical threat, and they’ll pull out all of the stops to get points against a still-suspect secondary. They may lose on another doinked field goal, but it won’t be by more. Bears +5
Pittsburgh Steelers EVEN vs. Indianapolis Colts
Why are people still interested in the Steelers? They went down 14-0 to the Dolphins last week! Mason Rudolph is still their quarterback, and a solid-but-unspectacular defense isn’t enough to keep them in games against solid competition. This should be a close game throughout, but I’d rather have Jacoby Brissett and Frank Reich thank Mason Rudolph and Mike Tomlin in a nail-biter. Colts to win
Miami Dolphins +3 vs. New York Jets
On one side, a team clearly tanking. On the other, the Jets. Who should we expect to win? Honestly, with the game in Miami, I think the Dolphins actually could win this week. Of course, winning usually requires trying, and Miami isn’t about that life. As I mentioned before, the Steelers fell into a 14-0 hole against the Dolphins last week; it would have been an issue against a team trying to win, but Miami gave up 27 unanswered points and almost blew a +14.5-point line. If this game is close late, don’t be surprised to see Ryan Fitzpatrick spike the ball backward and lead the Dolphins to a come-from-ahead loss. Jets -3
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
Still no line posted for this game as we wait for information on Patrick Mahomes’s status. This is a tough one to pick either way because of how effective the Chiefs’ offense looked last week with Matt Moore filling in. There’s no reason to think they can’t still put up points against Minnesota’s strong-but-not-impenetrable defense, and while Kirk Cousins has looked fantastic of late, there’s always a chance he goes full Cousins at the worst moment. I’m tempted to pick KC to win, but I wouldn’t like to see them favored if Matt Moore is starting or favored by more than 3 if Mahomes makes it back. We’ll update again before kickoff.
Carolina Panthers -4 vs. Tennessee Titans
In case you skipped the intro, I hate the Titans. I’m tired of their uniforms, I’m tired of there 21+ point win streak stat, and I’m tired of seeing them make both sides of a given bet reasonable. Luckily I think the Panthers can kick them in the teeth this week with a strong pass rush and creative looks to Christian McCaffrey. The Tannehill revival has to end soon, and traveling to Carolina to face a team ready to make up for an embarrassing loss is a great opportunity. Panthers -4
Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs. Washington
I don’t want to repeat myself too much from my last segment on the Bills, but here we are. The Buffalo offense shouldn’t be favored by double-digits against anybody. It will always be tough sledding for them, and this week is no different. A couple big plays from Case Keenum will be enough to cover here. Washington +9.5
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Seahawks are a decidedly average team despite Russell Wilson’s best efforts because their head coach and offensive coordinator do their best to make things easier on their opponents. Tampa Bay actually has a better defense than Seattle this year, and while we know Generous Jameis will hand the ball over at least once in this game, the Bucs’ offense will also be able to hit some deep shots to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Russ will pull them through to a win at home, but never count on Pete Carroll to make it look easy. Buccaneers +6.5
Oakland Raiders -2 vs. Detroit Lions
Ahh Oakland. Still relevant because of a quick-play offense tailored to Derek Carr’s strengths and a solid offensive line. Unfortunately, their defense still sucks without Khalil Mack and Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career. If the line was reversed, I’d be confident in Detroit to lose the game in hilarious fashion. As underdogs, they can still lose in hilarious fashion but cover the spread. I think they’ll probably win outright. Lions +2
Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Did something about the Chargers-Bears game last week make people think the Chargers are good? Was it squeaking past Mitchell Trubisky because of a missed mid-range field goal? Continuing to give the ball to Melvin Gordon III despite his struggles? The Packers, meanwhile, managed to cover the spread in Kansas City against an offense still coordinated by Andy Reid. They should have a much easier time this week against Philip Rivers and whoever is coordinating the Chargers’ offense now that Ken Whisenhunt has been fired. Packers -3
Denver Broncos +3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Do you prefer the team who benched their starting quarterback in apparent response to his comments about not being aggressive enough with nothing to lose? Or the team whose fourth-down bag of tricks includes halfback draws and intentional false starts? Brandon Allen is taking over as quarterback of the Broncos this week, and while I’d usually be hesitant about picking a sixth-round pick in his first NFL start, Joe Flacco didn’t set the bar very high. If the Denver defense can continue shutting down opposing offenses and they can find 12 points here and there, the game should stay close, and in that case I like the points at home. Broncos +3.5
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 vs. New England Patriots
The marquee game of the weekend sees New England squaring off with by far their stiffest competition to-date. How big of a jump will this be? The Ravens rank 7th in offensive DVOA, and the average rank of the seven teams the Patriots have played so far is 27.5. The BEST offense they’ve faced is the 22nd-ranked New York Giants. Tom Brady and the offense have looked decidedly average for their part, and the same goes for Baltimore’s once-terrifying defense. The biggest gap in the rankings is on special teams, where Justin Tucker and co. have Baltimore sitting in first place compared to an uncharacteristic 26th for the Pats. I would love to see Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run the ball down New England’s throat all night long, but there’s a reason Bill Belichick is so good against first- and second-year quarterbacks: he’s exceptional at making them play to their weaknesses. I think this will be a low-scoring game, but the Patriots will pull it out. Sad times continue for the non-New England parts of the country. Patriots -3.5
New York Giants +7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
These teams met earlier this season when Eli Manning was still starting for the Giants, and it went very well for Dallas. Now Daniel Jones is under center, and he’s been…well, worse than Eli Manning by DVOA. Which is fine! He’s a rookie quarterback, and it’s usually difficult for rookies to succeed in the NFL! No such problems haunt the current Cowboys’ roster, and they’re coming off a huge win over Philadelphia and a bye week. Unless they lean into their worst tendencies (handing the ball off and avoiding play-action for no apparent reason), this should be a cakewalk. Cowboys -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
