2019 NFL Picks Week 12: Are You Still Reading These?
I have to admit, three straight weeks of futility has me pretty lost on these picks. Do I have to start believing the Jets can score points? Are the Browns really threatening to turn their season around? Do the Falcons have a rejuvenated defense despite not adding any notable talent? It’s impossible to tell, but I’m leaning more on season-long stats and my gut feel for each team this week to come to the right decision. Oh, and we’re also picking a lot of road teams again. It reminds me of more successful times…
Houston Texans -3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jacoby Brissett is back and the Texans are coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens. No shame in losing big to this season’s version of Baltimore, but the numbers don’t suggest they’re any better than the Colts so far this year. Indianapolis won their earlier matchup, and they have an edge on both sides of the line. Deshaun Watson shouldn’t be counted out, and I’d be more surprised by a second consecutive dud than a bounceback this week, but the extra half point here is too much to ignore. Colts +3.5
Buffalo Bills -4 vs. Denver Broncos
It seems too easy to pick the Broncos here. They’re the better team by DVOA, they’re getting four points, and they’re coming off a narrow loss to a quality team in the Vikings. Josh Allen has looked better than I expected him to in his second year, but the Buffalo offense is still a bit of a mess and their defense isn’t a top-ten unit capable of carrying them past the best teams in the league. Something about Brandon Allen starting for a second consecutive week on the road is just giving me the willies here. A rowdy crowd in a frozen stadium will make for the most hostile environment he’s experienced, and I think his whole game will resemble the second half against Minnesota. Bills -4
Chicago Bears -6 vs. New York Giants
I don’t really know why I’m making this pick. Maybe I feel like Mitchell Trubisky’s injury will be enough to bring Chase Daniel back in, and while Chase might not be worth getting excited about he’s also responsible for the last game in which Chicago scored more than 20 points. Add in a still-strong defense going against turnover-prone Daniel Jones and a poor offensive line, and this might be Chicago’s last chance to look like a relevant team. Six points is a lot to cover when your offense only averages 15.5, but the defense will pad that total this week at home. Bears -6
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I pick against Pittsburgh; Jacoby Brissett gets injured and Adam Viniateri (and the holder) blows a game-winning kick. I pick Pittsburgh; they score 7 points against Cleveland and see their quarterback help start a fight that would be embarrassing if the NFL didn’t have so much to be embarrassed about already. If there’s one team who can get me the right pick when the Steelers are involved, it’s the Bengals. They may have covered against Oakland, but it was more the result of luck than anything else. They should be playing for the top pick at this point, and they can’t afford to jeopardize that by losing by less than a touchdown. Steelers -6.5
Cleveland Browns -11 vs. Miami Dolphins
So let me make sure I understand this: the Browns beat Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph, lose their best defender for the rest of the year, and still get to be double-digit favorites? I know Miami is terrible, but they’re already better than we thought they would be. I’m not ready to believe in Cleveland’s comeback this strongly yet. Give me Fitzmagic and the points! Dolphins +11
Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta seems determined to keep Dan Quinn around, with back-to-back blowout wins over the Saints and Panthers. A lot of credit is being given to Raheem Morris, who was moved to being Atlanta’s secondary coach after their bye week. It probably made sense to give their defense a little more instruction, but it doesn’t explain how they’ve given up single-digit points to two division rivals in the last two weeks. With the second-fewest takeaways per game of any team this year, the Falcons are uniquely positioned to not take advantage of Jameis Winston’s generosity. If Mike Evans and Chris Godwin can go to work on Atlanta’s secondary, they should have no problem winning this game outright. Buccaneers +4
New Orleans Saints -9.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Both teams are reeling from losses to the previously pitiful Falcons, but the Saints are clearly the superior team by most metrics. They’ll be prepared to mitigate the damage Christian McCaffrey can do on his own, and with Alvin Kamara back to form they’ll be moving the ball efficiently on offense. Most importantly, I expect their defense to continue a troubling trend for Panthers fans and force at least two turnovers from Kyle Allen. I don’t want to say that it’s retribution for considering him as a starting quarterback of the future over Cam Newton, but…that was a dumb thing to consider. Saints -9.5
Washington +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Both teams are disappointing by W-L record, but only Washington has reached the depths of losing to the Jets. A big part of their problem has been the (understandably!) poor play of rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who has two touchdowns and five interceptions across four games this year. Detroit has looked surprisingly competent with Jeff Driskel playing for the injured Matthew Stafford, and they’ll be able to score against Washington’s 28th-ranked defense. Can their own banged-up defense hold up their end of the bargain? If the Giants can hold Washington to 3 points, then yes. Absolutely. Lions -3.5
New York Jets +3 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Jets still have an offense playing worse than Miami’s, but their defense has looked very good since a professional-caliber quarterback returned from his mono-induced absence. It was disappointing to see Oakland fall flat against Cincinnati last week, but they likely would have covered with a little better luck. Now they’re only giving up three points to a bottom-five team by DVOA. I think Derek Carr can pull this one out. Raiders -3
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s highly possible Gardner Minshew is a better quarterback than Nick Foles, whose return last week was greeted by a drubbing at the hands of the Colts. It isn’t encouraging to be picking this Jags’ rushing defense against Derrick Henry, but it’s never encouraging to pick the Titans anywhere. Ryan Tannehill is going to plummet to earth at some point, and I think it’s in this game. Let’s take the points. Jaguars +3
New England Patriots -7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I was a bit surprised to see the line this high after Tom Brady’s struggles against Philadelphia. The New England offense now sits outside the top-ten, and their defense has only faced a test of this caliber once: in their loss to the Ravens in Week 9. I don’t think the Cowboys can match Baltimore in terms of offensive creativity, but they should be able to effectively run the ball and only challenge the stingy Patriots’ secondary on their own terms. Even if they struggle, New England lacks the weapons they’d need to really pull away. Cowboys +7
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Green Bay Packers
How afraid am I of this version of Aaron Rodgers? Most signs point to picking the Niners here, with an elite pass rush capable of pressuring Rodgers and getting him off his spot. If they’re disciplined enough to keep him in the pocket, it would make for a statement game at the top of the NFC rankings. Of course if they can’t, it will be up to Jimmy Garoppolo, whose best performances of the year have come against the Cardinals (twice), the Bengals, and the Panthers. Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly drip with swagger, but they’ll do enough to keep this game close. And when the game is close…Rodgers drinks your milkshake. Packers +3
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Why are the Eagles favored here? Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign continues along, Philadelphia still hasn’t found any receivers capable of catching a football, and both teams are bad on special teams. Maybe I just love Russ a little too much because of what he’s done for my fantasy team this year, but doesn’t the idea of him, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Josh Gordon going against the Eagles’ secondary sound like a terrible mismatch? Seahawks +1.5
Los Angeles Rams +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
No one gets credit for shutting down Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. Sure, the Rams are home in this game, but Baltimore has won their past three games against teams with winning records (Texans, Patriots, Seahawks) by an average of almost 22 points per game! I like what Wade Phillips has done with the Rams’ defense, but the Ravens are on a different kind of roll entirely, and they need every win to help lock up a first-round bye. Ravens -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
