2019 NFL Picks Week 13: Time is Running Out
I mean, we all got excited about the Browns going 7-8-1 last year after years of futility, right? So I’m counting last week’s 6-8 finish as a big win given recent performance. We’ll be in Scandinavia for this week’s games, but hopefully we can find some way to watch along with all of you!
Detroit Lions +1 at Chicago Bears
The Detroit Lions were reaching out to Josh Johnson this week to see if he’d be available to fill in for a banged-up Jeff Driskel, and they weren’t able to do anything because of the contract Johnson signed with the XFL. I know the Bears aren’t good, but their defense will be able to feast again this week and even Mitchell Trubisky can beat Matt Patricia’s “schemes”. I’m happy only giving a point here. Bears -1
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. Buffalo Bills
This game is an interesting matchup between a team whose coaching routinely drags down the abilities of a talented roster and a team whose coach seems to get a lot out of players with limited skill sets. The Cowboys seem intent on ruining a great season from Dak Prescott by running in predictable situations and being overly conservative. Sean McDermott has crafted an overachieving squad by developing and leaning on Josh Allen and a strong offensive line. With this game in Dallas, though, I expect talent to win out the way it did for the Eagles earlier this year: the Cowboys will turn a couple of early scores into defensive pressure and coast to a two-score victory. Cowboys -7
Atlanta Falcons +7 vs. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta’s resurgent defense crashed to earth against the Buccaneers last week, reminding us once again not to trust small sample sizes. The Falcons managed to knock off New Orleans just a couple of weeks ago, but Drew Brees and co. won’t be complacent coming into this one. The Saints still have a track to a first-round bye, and they’ll take care of business neatly this Thanksgiving. Saints -7
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
Great, back to the AFC South. The Titans looked great last week in a dismantling of Jacksonville, but it’s difficult to say what that proves this year. The Colts probably won’t let Derrick Hunry run roughshod through their secondary all game, and they’d benefit greatly from putting extra pressure on the surprising Ryan Tannehill. I think the Colts have a coaching edge in this one, and with a healthy Jacoby Brissett it should be enough to cover 3 points at home. Colts -3
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. New York Jets
It sounds like the Bengals will be getting Andy Dalton back this week, which would be encouraging if the rest of their team was deep and talented enough to carry him through his faults. This version of the Bengals most certainly is not, and they’re going against a suddenly competent Jets team. Sam Darnold hasn’t convinced me of anything yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him gradually improve as he recovers from his bout with mono. Throw in a defense capable of stymying the Bengals’ already-weak run game, and the Jets could walk away with a second consecutive surprise blowout. Jets -3.5
Carolina Panthers -10 vs. Washington
The Panthers are in the same boat as the Saints, coming off a surprising loss to the Falcons just a couple of weeks ago. Kyle Allen has absolutely returned to earth, but Carolina is a far better team than the Detroit team we saw Washington top last week. Christian McCaffrey is going to enjoy another huge fantasy day, and Dwayne Haskins will be confounded into some crippling mistakes. Panthers -10
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams coming off blowout wins, one with the most exciting offense in football and the other with a defense capable of pressuring any quarterback into mistakes. So the questions here are 1) can Jimmy Garoppolo score enough points to hold up the offense’s end of the bargain? and 2) will Lamar Jackson be slowed down by the fierce pass rush and defense of San Francisco. I think Baltimore’s defensive improvement is real, and I have more faith in Lamar Jackson than Jimmy G at this point. Ravens -4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was a little surprised to see the Jaguars favored this week, but I suppose Jameis’s 3 turnovers have to manifest somewhere. Apart from ball security issues, the Bucs should have no trouble putting up points on a depleted Jacksonville defense. With Nick Foles hardly impressing and Leonard Fournette set to take on the league’s top defense against running backs, I’m having a hard time finding points for Jacksonville. Buccaneers +1.5
New York Giants +6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers need a big bounce back after the beating they took in San Francisco last week, and the Giants have been obliging to most teams this year. With Aaron Rodgers facing a much tamer defense this time around, Green Bay’s offense will look far smoother than what we’ve seen recently. Daniel Jones is going to continue to struggle going against a competent and disciplined Packers’ defense. Green Bay should have no problem covering a touchdown. Packers -6.5
Miami Dolphins +9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Fitzmagic might be running out in Miami, which makes this matchup against the recently strong Eagles’ defense extra scary. The Eagles need a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Miami’s bottom-ranked defense will help Carson Wentz regain his MVP-candidate form. If Philadelphia can catch a couple passes this week, the line above is far too low. Eagles -9
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Oakland Raiders
This line seems like an overreaction to Oakland’s dud last week against the Jets. I just have a hard time counting on Kansas City’s defense to hold any game within 10 points, and unless the Raiders’ preferred gameplan has to be abandoned within the first two drives, they’ll keep things interesting. Even if Mahomes can get the Chiefs to 45, there’s little reason to believe they can hold Oakland to 35. Raiders +10
Arizona Cardinals +4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams might be able to patch their holes up enough to get a win in Arizona this week, but Goff’s continued struggles make it hard to imagine them winning by a lot. It’s hard for me to trust a team who looks so lost on offense, so I’m going with the increasingly-aggressive Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. They might lose in a high-scoring affair, but 4 points is too much padding. Cardinals +4
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Two teams heading in very different directions. The Steelers had to bench Mason Rudolph for Devlin “Duck” Hodge last week in order to take down the mighty Dolphins, and the Browns are coming off consecutive wins with an eye on a wild card spot. Pittsburgh’s biggest advantage in this game would be leaning on their defensive line to make Baker Mayfield uncomfortable, but they weren’t able to do that just a couple weeks ago. It’s always fun picking against third-string QBs anyway, right? Browns -1.5
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Did the Chargers do something interesting in the past ten days to justify being a road favorite? Even if they win this game, which they should, there’s no way they’ll win by a full three points. If they did, their fans might feel comfortable for a whole Sunday afternoon! Denver’s defense will keep them in this game long enough to lose by less than 3. Broncos +2.5
Houston Texans +3 vs. New England Patriots
Have we seen the Texans really show out against a good team this year? They got run off the field against the Ravens a few weeks back, and all of Deshaun Watson’s magic doesn’t seem to be enough to make up for the injuries they’ve experienced this season. The Patriots’ defense will smother anything Houston tries to get going, and Tom Brady will manage a few more points than we saw this past weekend in the freezing rain. Patriots -3
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I just really hate picking Seattle as the favorite. Their overly-conservative offense consistently handicaps Russell Wilson, as they insist on handing the ball to human fumble machine Chris Carson. Their defense has looked better in recent weeks, but the Minnesota offense is rolling well and should continue to succeed with Dalvin Cook and play-action passes against a middling opponent. Russ can certainly pull out a victory, but it won’t be by more than 3 points. Vikings +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
