2019 NFL Picks Week 14: There's Always Next Year?
Turns out the 2-1 start on Thanksgiving was a total misdirect! Of course we should have anticipated the Bengals getting their first win of the season, the Dolphins hanging 37 points on the Eagles, and the Patriots losing outright. I had a little more time than usual to go through our picks this week, and I’m hoping the extra attention to detail can get us back in the green. Here goes nothin’
Chicago Bears +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
One of the benefits of extra time to dig into these lines is looking through each team’s results throughout the season. At first, seeing the Cowboys and their top-ranked offense favored by only 3 points over Mitchell Trubisky seemed crazy, but looking at the Cowboys’ losses this year made a different case. Three of Dallas’s losses came against a Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints team, the New York Jets, and the Buffalo Bills. Those teams all have a similar profile to Chicago’s rankings of 8th on defense and 25th on offense, so we took the home underdog and a field goal of help. Bears +3
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Carolina Panthers
This line would have looked insane just a few weeks ago, but again, that’s the story of this season. Atlanta looked surprisingly tough against the Saints last week while Carolina…lost a home game to Washington. It’s safe to say the shine has come entirely off of Kyle Allen, which leaves us in an interesting position heading into this game. Atlanta won this matchup by 26 points in Week 11, and since then the Panthers have fired their head coach. I don’t think either team has a lot to play for at this point, but if anyone’s arrow is pointing up, it’s Atlanta’s. Falcons -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s two-score loss to the Titans last week seemed like the last flailing efforts of the Colts to stay in the playoff hunt, with Andrew Luck’s retirement and a long list of injuries finally doing them in. They may not make it to the postseason, but I was a little surprised to see them getting a full field goal against the Buccaneers in this game. Jacoby Brissett should have no trouble throwing the ball on Tampa Bay’s defense, and I’m always excited to get points in addition to the ones Jameis Winston hands to the other team. Mix in a pick-six and a bizarre fumble, and Indianapolis is really getting about 13 points in Tampa. Colts +3
New York Jets -5.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Ahhh, two of the teams I hate the most this season. The Dolphins were so nice to start the year, with Josh Rosen making them an easy team to pick against regardless of the size of the spread. Fitzmagic had to come along and ruin that, starting with an 8-point win over these same Jets in Week 9! They followed that up with a tough win on the road in Indianapolis, at which point I decided I couldn’t write them off entirely. Naturally they followed that up with two straight 17-point losses to the Bills (ehhh, okay) and the Browns (what now?!). Then they dropped 37 points on the Eagles last week and pulled out another win. Which Miami team should we expect this week? And will the Jets look like the team who won three straight games by a combined 55 points after losing to the Dolphins, or the team who gave Cincinnati their first win of the season right after? I won’t be watching to find out, but I’m picking the Jets at home. Jets -5.5
New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
We need to create some type of concern index to properly evaluate this game. I don’t feel great about the Saints with the way Drew Brees tailed off down the stretch last season and seems to be doing the same this time around, but I don’t feel great about Jimmy Garoppolo going against anyone who isn’t the Cardinals. Since blowing out Arizona in Week 8 and returning from their bye, New Orleans has squeaked past the Panthers, beaten the Bucs, and split with the Falcons. None of those teams present a challenge anywhere near what the Niners are bringing to town, and I’m a little more enthusiastic about their recent track record of a huge win over the Packers and a close loss in Baltimore. It doesn’t hurt to see both of San Francisco’s losses coming by 3 points, either. 49ers +2.5
Minnesota Vikings -12.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Minnesota won the Week 7 matchup in Detroit by 12 points, and it feels like the teams have headed in opposite directions since then. Minnesota has one-score losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks since then, and the Lions have lost to…everyone but the Giants. Oakland is almost understandable, Dallas is okay, but Chicago twice and Washington really make you cringe. Minnesota needs to take care of business at home in order to stay in the Wild Card hunt, and they’ll get it done. Vikings -12.5
Houston Texans -9 vs. Denver Broncos
It isn’t much fun watching or picking Denver in any of their games this year, but nine points seems like an overreaction to Houston’s win over New England last week. They’ve lost three games by that many points this week, all to playoff-bound teams: the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Packers. The Texans should be able to hold on to win the AFC South, but I’m not sure if they can put together the type of complete game they’ll need to cover this spread. They’ve only won two games by such a large amount this year, against teams with defenses currently ranked 26th (Atlanta) and 24th (Jacksonville). Denver, at 12th, should make it harder for the game to turn into a rout. Broncos +9
Buffalo Bills +6.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Everything about this line is asking me to take the Bills. They’ve been improving as the year has progressed, now up to 11th in DVOA and 19th in offensive DVOA. They also kept things close against the Patriots way back in Week 4, but it’s difficult to find any other measuring stick for this game. Since then, Buffalo has played the Mariota version of the Titans, the Dolphins (twice), the Eagles, Washington, the Browns, the Broncos, and the Cowboys. None of those teams holds a candle to the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson should be able to crack 30 points even against Buffalo’s quality defense. I think Josh Allen and co. will come up well short against a Ravens defense now ranked 4th in DVOA. Ravens -6.5
Cleveland Browns -8.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton returned to the field last week and promptly led Cincinnati to its first win of the season, over the hapless New York Jets. Against a mediocre opponent, going from a terrible quarterback to an average one might be more meaningful than going from an average quarterback to a great one; the Browns are absolutely a mediocre opponent, ranking 17th in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Even if Cleveland stumbles into a strong performance (remember, they’ve beaten the Ravens and the Bills this year), average Andy Dalton should be enough to cover a line this large. Bengals +8.5
Green Bay Packers -13 vs. Washington
I know Washington has somehow found two wins against the Lions and the Panthers, but those teams have deep-seated issues all over the place. The Packers had their doors blown off by the 49ers a couple of weeks ago, but they bounced back with an 18-point win over the Giants last week. Washington won’t put up much more of a fight this week, and this one will be over early. Packers -13
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
So…the Jaguars are going back to Gardner Minshew after an ill-advised dalliance with Nick Foles, and somehow they’re home underdogs against the Chargers? Philip Rivers seems to be turning into Brett Favre before our eyes, and the Chargers have only beaten Miami by more than one point on the road this season. I think we can expect the return of Minshew to provide the Jaguars with the same type of spark he did when he first came in for Foles, and three points should be enough to cover whatever tragic ending the second Los Angeles team has in mind this week. Jaguars +3
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Devlin “Duck” Hodges came up with enough plays to help Cleveland beat themselves last week, and now he’s going on the road to take on Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. The Steelers have a very strong defense, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cardinals improved offense struggle in the early quarters. I just have a hard time seeing Duck go on the road and pulling out a win with Pittsburgh’s 28th-ranked offense. I’m not particularly enthusiastic, but Arizona should win at home. Cardinals +2.5
Oakland Raiders +3 vs. Tennessee Titans
Two teams headed in very different directions face off in Oakland this week, with the Titans winning five of their six games since moving to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and Oakland losing their last two games by a combined 62 points. Derrick Henry has been running like a freight train through any defense he’s encountered, and Tennessee seems to be doing a great job of not beating themselves. Oakland’s 31st-ranked defense won’t provide enough resistance to keep this game close, and they’ll continue sliding down the standings. Titans -3
New England Patriots -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots are probably scraping the internet for bulletin board (as if those exist anymore) material after a tough loss to Houston last week, but anyone suggesting they can’t get the job done is just testing out their hot takes. Unfortunately, the Chiefs present a difficult challenge for a team relying heavily on their defense. When New England beat the Chiefs in last year’s playoff classic, they leaned on a strong run game and hit some big conversions to Gronk down the stretch; this year, their run game isn’t as strong and they don’t have anything resembling a Gronk to make those types of plays. Patrick Mahomes will continue to score points even against a historically impressive Patriots’ defense, and it will be fascinating to see what Belichick and Brady do to keep up. New England can absolutely still win this game, but I would be surprised if it was by more than three. Chiefs +3
Los Angeles Rams +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Somehow Seattle looked at the tape of their playoff flameout against the Cowboys last year and thought, “we should double down.” It doesn’t make any sense, but here we are with the Seahawks at 10-2 and exactly ONE win by more than one score. The only thing making their approach sustainable is the MVP-level play of Russell Wilson, and I’m not ready to predict a down week for him even against the Rams’ 5th-ranked defense. Seattle came out with a one-point home win when these teams met in Week 5, and I’m expecting a similar game here. If Sean McVay and the Rams can keep anything going from their 34-point outburst last week, they’ll be able to get a win at home. Rams +1
Philadelphia Eagles -10 vs. New York Giants
The Giants are going back to Eli Manning this week. What that means for the New York offense is an utter mystery, but it’s hard to imagine him performing worse than Daniel Jones in his return. If Philadelphia can give up 37 to Ryan Fitzpatrick, I’d expect the Giants to manage something on offense, which should be enough to cover 10 points against an Eagles team averaging 19 points per game since Week 6. I don’t recommend anyone actually watch this disaster-that-somehow-has-NFC-East-implications, but don’t be surprised if it looks even weirder than it sounds. Giants +10
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
