2019 NFL Picks Week 15: Picking the Big Favorites
Well that was a pleasant surprise! We still have an outside chance to finish the season at .500 thanks to last week’s stunning success, but we’ll need at least two more strong weeks to get there. Hopefully it was a result of the extra time spent reviewing individual teams’ performances, because we’ve had a chance to do the same thing this week. As for teams like the Jets and Jaguars…ugh, who knows?
Baltimore Ravens -15.5 vs. New York Jets
15.5 is a big spread to cover against a Jets defense shockingly ranked 12th in DVOA, but the Jets managed to lose by 16 just two weeks ago. To the Bengals. The Ravens are better than the Bengals in every phase of the game, and they can’t afford to mess around if they want to lock up home field through the AFC playoffs. Our biggest risk here is a Sam Darnold backdoor cover, but I don’t think Baltimore’s 4th-ranked defense will give New York any breathing room. Ravens -15.5
Cincinnati Bengals +9.5 vs. New England Patriots
The Bengals offense has looked much better with a professional quarterback lining up under center again, but there’s no way they should be single-digit underdogs to an elite team. New England’s back-to-back losses to the Texans and Chiefs aren’t exactly embarrassing, and their top-ranked defense will be clamping down on Cincinnati from the jump. The Patriots can’t afford to lose another game, and these are the kinds of games they don’t mess up on their way to a first-round bye every season. If you’re really worried about laying so many points, take comfort knowing the Bengals’ defense has given up 25 points per game. Patriots -9.5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Neither of these teams will be making the playoffs this year, and it’s hard to see what anyone will be playing for. Mike Evans will likely be out for the Buccaneers, but they still have a deep set of skill-position players including Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard. Without Matt Stafford and with their defense slipping each week, Detroit won’t be able to take advantage of Jameis’s mistakes. I think the Lions have quit on Matt Patricia more than anyone in Tampa has quit, so let’s avoid choosing them until we see signs of life. Buccaneers -3.5
Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs. Chicago Bears
I’m not sure what to expect from Green Bay at this point. They’re 10-3, but it’s not exactly inspiring. Their best wins are probably a close call at home against Minnesota and a road victory over Matt Moore, and they’ve looked utterly outmatched in road losses to the Chargers and 49ers. Of course, nothing about the Bears this season has been inspiring, with an impressive 4-1 record in their last five games marred by the mediocrity of their opposition. Dallas is the best team they’ve beaten during the stretch, but they’ve had trouble getting wins against anyone lately. Averaging just over 20 points per game doesn’t suggest they’ve fixed their offensive problems, but their defense has continued to impress. I think they’ll do enough in this matchup to keep things close until the end, and if they can lose 10-6 instead of 10-3 like they did in the first game of the season, we’ll have a cover. Bears +4.5
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Houston Texans
The AFC South is on the line! Somehow, Ryan Tannehill has turned Tennessee’s offense into a formidable foe, combining with Derrick Henry to average 37.5 points per game over their last four contests. None of the defenses they’ve faced in this stretch have been intimidating, but neither is Houston’s 27th-ranked unit. If the Texans can’t slow down the Titans’ offense, they’ll once again have to lean heavily on Deshaun Watson to come up with enough magic to pull out the road win. He’s absolutely capable of such magnificence, but I don’t want to bet on it. Titans -3
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver and Drew Lock are coming off two straight wins, but beating the Chargers is nothing to write home about and handling Houston the week after they beat New England feels a little fluky. I don’t expect Kansas City to let Noah Fant run wild the way Houston did, and Denver doesn’t have the personnel to attack Kansas City’s weak run defense. I think Patrick Mahomes will continue regaining his form week by week, and he’ll break 30 points here. Chiefs -9.5
New York Giants -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Wait…what? Why are the Giants favored by more than the customary 3 points at home? They haven’t won since Week 4 against Washington, and they haven’t played a murderer’s row of opponents. Miami, meanwhile, remains feisty with a point differently of -17 across their last six games. It never feels good picking a team in a tank battle, but I love getting the extra half point here with Ryan Fitzpatrick doing his thing against New York’s 25th-ranked defense. Dolphins +3.5
Washington +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This line looked weird when I first saw it, and it’s only continued to look weird as I’ve thought about it since. I don’t really like the idea of picking Philadelphia against anyone at this point, and that discomfort was helpful in picking the Giants +10 last week. Now they’ve cut that amount in half, but Washington isn’t much different than the Giants from a statistical standpoint. I think the reduced line is enough to justify picking Philadelphia even though they’re averaging just 19.5 points per game since Week 6. Washington is going to struggle even more than usual with Derrius Guice injured again, and this will put the Eagles in a perfect position to continue bobbling the NFC East back and forth with Dallas. Eagles -5
Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is a lot like Green Bay, in that they’ve won 10 games this season by an average of just 5.6 points. A combination of their 17th-ranked defense and the continued mismanagement of their offensive gameplan makes it difficult to pull away in games, but the Panthers may be presenting them with the perfect opportunity to finally win big. The Panthers are turning the ball over like they employ Jameis Winston since they first fell to pieces against the 49ers, and I don’t expect their defense or all-around play to improve with Ron Rivera out of the building. If the new Panthers are the team we watched lose by 20 to the Falcons last week, they can definitely lose to the Seahawks by a touchdown. Seahawks -6.5
Oakland Raiders -7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Two teams enter, but only one can lose. The Raiders and Jaguars have combined to go 0-6 in their last six games with a point differential of -157 (26.2 points per game). Such futility hasn’t been seen since the short-lived Josh Rosen era in Miami, and obviously that makes it difficult to pick a winner here. I’m banking on some regression to the mean here, and assuming two incompetent teams will just flail around at each other unsuccessfully for sixty minutes. If it was 3 points, I’d take the semi-functioning Raiders, but they don’t deserve a full touchdown. Jaguars +7
Arizona Cardinals +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Cardinals have really disappointed me lately, but they’ve experienced a bit of bad luck on their way to back-to-back home losses. Pittsburgh managed a six point win last week thanks to a non-offensive touchdown and red zone turnovers from Kyler Murray, and while rookie mistakes are to be expected, it won’t happen every week. The Browns’ defense doesn’t stack up to the Steelers’ favorably, ranking 16th overall (3rd for Pittsburgh) and 9th in sack rate (2nd). I don’t expect them to travel to the west coast well with their undisciplined performances this year, and Arizona will get enough breathing room on offense to pull out the win. Cardinals +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Hey, the Chargers put together a complete performance last week! For the first time all season, we saw the version of the Bolts that many of us expected coming into the year, and they pummeled the Jaguars 45-10. Of course, everyone has been pummeling the Jaguars of late, as we covered in our section about them and Oakland. Hosting the Vikings this week presents a much taller task, as Minnesota ranks 7th in DVOA. If the Chargers can put together a second straight week of above average play in all three phases, they can undoubtedly pull off another upset like they did against the Packers in Week 9. I’m not ready to count on the Chargers just yet. Vikings -3
Dallas Cowboys +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s pick of the Bears +3 over the Cowboys was based largely on Dallas’s struggles against teams with top-end defenses and middling-to-bad offenses. Guess what the Rams have! A defense ranked 6th and an offense ranked 17th in DVOA. Until Dallas can consistently get stops, even against mediocre offenses, I’m not ready to bank on them beating good teams. The Rams’ struggles this year have been overstated, with losses to the Buccaneers (okay, weird), Seahawks, 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens. The Cowboys haven’t performed better than any of those last four teams, and we can happily pick against them until they do. Rams -1.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
We’ve seen a mini-resurgence from the Falcons lately, scoring 27 points per game on their way to three wins in five weeks. I don’t expect the magic to hold up as they travel west to take on San Francisco and their elite defense and pass rush. The Niners have blown out the mediocre teams they’ve played this year, winning seven games by double digits. They should be able to get an eighth with Atlanta’s 26th-ranked defense coming to town. 49ers -11
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I haven’t done well picking Pittsburgh’s games this season, and as of late their defense has consistently done enough to not only cover spreads but to win outright. They haven’t won by more than one score since Week 8, though, and Buffalo at 11th in DVOA is considerably better than other victims like the Browns, Colts, and Bengals. Buffalo needs this win to stay out ahead in the wild card hunt, and I expect Josh Allen to do just enough to let his defense win them the game against Duck Hodges. Bills +1.5
New Orleans Saints -9.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has done more this season than anyone could have expected, but it really seems like their ability to fight through has finally run out. They’ve now lost five of their last six games with both Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton banged up, and traveling to New Orleans is no one’s idea of a respite. After a wildly entertaining loss to the 49ers last week, the Saints need every win they can get to get a first-round bye and any hope of home field advantage. I think New Orleans will get out to an early lead, and the Colts just don’t have the explosiveness they’d need to keep pace. Saints -9.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
