2019 NFL Picks Week 16: The Culmination of Lessons Learned
As always, this NFL season has been strange. The Patriots are in line for a first round bye, of course, but otherwise we’ve seen a lot of upheaval. This week we’ll need to apply the lessons we’ve learned all season to avenge some earlier losses (the Ravens and the Browns, the Packers and the Vikings, the NFC West) and get ourselves back to even footing for the season. Let’s see if we can balance the past and the present and come up with some answers!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 vs. Houston Texans
Last week, the seemingly divergent paths of the Texans and the Titans finally bit us. It was nice to get a bit of run from Tennessee, but in an important divisional game we picked Ryan Tannehill as a favorite over Deshaun Watson. I can’t say I regret the decision with the way Houston has been playing lately, because it’s hard to figure out which team you’ll get from one week to the next. This week they’ll be traveling to Tampa Bay, where Jameis Winston is waiting with neither of his top receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin hit the bench in back-to-back weeks, leaving a consistently unpredictable quarterback with fewer players capable of bailing him out. If the Bucs had one or both of their star wideouts available, I’d pick them to do enough damage to the Houston secondary to keep this one close or even win outright. Without them…Jameis’s multiple turnovers will be a death sentence. Texans -2
New England Patriots -6 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills were the first team to puncture the Patriots’ air of invincibility when they nearly pulled out an upset victory in Buffalo in Week 4. Josh Allen had one of his worst games of the year, Matt Barkley was forced into action, and somehow the Patriots only won by six points. Each team has lost three times since then, but the excitement around the Bills is weighing this line down a bit. There’s no reason to believe the Patriots can’t win by six points again this time around, especially playing in front of their home crowd. A loss here would put the Patriots at very slight risk of losing the AFC East for the second time since 2003, and we just aren’t so fortunate. The New England defense will smother Josh Allen and Buffalo once again, and they’ll score just enough points to cover the spread. Patriots -6
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
When these teams met in Los Angeles in Week 6, the 49ers managed to pull away from a very slow first half to win by 13 points. It was the first real sign of cracks in the Rams’ offense, and things haven’t improved much since. After scoring almost 30 points per game in their first five contests, Sean McVay and Jared Goff have managed just over 20 in the 10 games since. The Niners have experienced a similar decline on the other side of the ball, though. After harassing quarterbacks and giving up 20 points just once in their first seven games, San Francisco has allowed 20 or more points in six of their last seven contests. Much of their decline can be attributed to injury, but I’m not expecting all of their pieces to be back for this game. If they’re not, I like the large spread with a strong Rams defense and a still-questionable Jimmy Garoppolo leading the Niners’ offense. Rams +6.5
Miami Dolphins -1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
A true toilet bowl matchup here, pitting the bottom two teams by DVOA in a battle to prove…nothing. As you can see from the table above, Cincinnati somehow has an edge on both offense and defense despite ranking 28th and 30th, respectively. A couple weeks ago with Ryan Finley throwing “passes”, I might have picked Fitzmagic and the Dolphins at home. With Andy Dalton providing mediocrity under center once again, the Bengals should have a definite advantage everywhere it matters. The extra one point probably won’t do us much good, but it’s better than nothing! Bengals +1
New York Jets +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets are undoubtedly the inferior team here, but watching Devlin Hodges and the Steelers’ offense average 17.25 points per game since he regained his starting job makes me hesitant to pick them as favorites. Their pass rush and defense will cause a lot of problems for Sam Darnold, but the Jets have a shockingly competent defense and it’s hard to imagine any version of this Pittsburgh offense actually going off. I just can’t bring myself to pick an objectively terrible team over a middling one, even with the help of a field goal. Sprinkle in the definitive mismatch that is Mike Tomlin against Adam Gase, and we can leave this one behind. Steelers -3
Washington -2.5 vs. New York Giants
Toilet bowl number 2! Yes, Washington at 3-11 is somehow favored in an actual football game, but I guess they deserve it when the 3-11 Giants come to town. My pick here is heavily dependent on the health of Daniel Jones; if he’s healed enough to play, I might shift my attention to Washington. With Eli on the field, though, the Giants have a little more stability, and I like picking them as underdogs against Dwayne Haskins. He’s coming off the best game of his young career, but progress for rookie quarterbacks is rarely linear. We’ll take the more experienced team who still has the coach they started the season with. Giants +2.5
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Hey, remember when people were considering the idea of Kyle Allen replacing Cam Newton as Carolina’s starting quarterback going forward? It hasn’t actually become more ridiculous, but at least it’s easier to see how ridiculous it is, with rookie Will Grier now set to make his NFL debut. Still, seeing the Colts favored by almost a touchdown was a bit of a shock considering they’ve lost six of their last seven games. With an injured Jacoby Brissett, I like the odds of Christian McCaffrey picking up a garbage time TD to cover the spread. Panthers +6.5
Cleveland Browns +10 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The 6-8 Browns were the last team to beat the Ravens, winning by 15 points in Baltimore way back in Week 4. I’m not going to try to explain that game here, because it seems like a job best left to scientists or religious figures. Winning this game would allow the Ravens to rest Lamar Jackson in Week 17 with the top seed in the AFC all wrapped up, and I think they’ll do everything they can to make sure that happens. I’m sure they’re also excited to avenge their strangest loss of the season against a division rival, which makes ten points a little less imposing. Ravens -10
Atlanta Falcons -7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Falcons have looked closer to average than bad over the past few weeks, but I don’t think I can fully trust a team so inept at getting after opposing quarterbacks. Let’s say they jump out to an early lead in this game over Gardner Minshew; do we think their defense can clamp down and stretch their advantage out over the course of the second half? Or will they open the door for some Minshew magic and look like the team who let the Rams come in and drop 37 points? The Jaguars have a lot of problems, but between their still-strong pass rush and the better option back under center, I like their chances of remaining competitive. Jaguars +7
Tennessee Titans +1 vs. New Orleans Saints
Ahh Ryan Tannehill. The ride was certainly interesting, but the perpetual meh-ness of Tennessee had to win out at some point. One week removed from a crushing loss to the division-rival Texans, the Titans have to face the league’s best-rounded non-Baltimore team, who needs a win here to keep their hopes of the top seed alive. Drew Brees hasn’t been as good on the road as he has been at home, and he probably won’t complete over 95% of his passes again, but we just need New Orleans to win here. Saints -1
Los Angeles Chargers -6 vs. Oakland Raiders
One team attempted to hold its fans hostage and fled up the coast when their bluff was called, settling in a tiny stadium where no locals had passion for their team. The other attempted to hold its fans hostage and is soon fleeing to the desert, to settle in a new stadium where no locals have interest in their team. It’s interesting how similar these AFC West teams are, down to similarly atrocious special teams and better offense than defense. The biggest difference to me is their trajectories at this point of the season. Joey Bosa will be getting after Derek Carr all game, and Derwin James is back on the field to help the Chargers’ defense. The Raiders collapsed last week to lose their fourth consecutive game, and I don’t think they’ll bother showing up for the first half this time around. Chargers -6
Denver Broncos -6.5 vs. Detroit Lions
There isn’t much to like about either of these teams in their present states. The Broncos’ defense has been good, but not nearly as good as they must have hoped when they hired Vic Fangio to coach a team with Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, and Chris Harris. The Lions have an easy excuse with Matthew Stafford sitting out since early November. David Blough will unfortunately be starting once again this week, and he’s made the Tampa Bay and Washington defenses look solid. I’m not entirely sold on Drew Lock yet, but he’s shown enough flashes to give me some confidence against Matt Patricia’s defense. If Denver can get out to a lead, they’ll be able to force Blough into the same mistakes he made last week. Broncos -6.5
Seattle Seahawks -9.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks have won 11 games this year, and only one of them came by more than one score. Of course, it was against these same Cardinals in Arizona in Week 4, so it wouldn’t be unprecedented for them to pull it off this week. With Russell Wilson starting for my fantasy team this week, I hope the Seahawks can score plenty of points; I’m just not sure they can stop the Cardinals from doing the same. Kyler Murray has been finding his stride as the season has gone along, and I expect Kliff Kingsbury’s offense to manage more than the 10 points they scored when these teams last met. Whether it stays close wire-to-wire or Seattle lets Arizona back in the game the way they did Carolina last week, the final score should be within a touchdown. Cardinals +9.5
Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have won four straight games against the Eagles, and they’re certainly looking better of late. Philadelphia needed overtime to get past the Giants, and Washington kept things close until the final possession. Their last strong performance was beating the Bills in Week 8, and the explanation for their struggles is fairly simple: they just don’t have many healthy weapons. Watching Carson Wentz wait for people to get open is painful, and even a weak Cowboys’ defense shouldn’t have any trouble covering the likes of Greg Ward and Boston Scott. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Dallas run away with another one here, all but guaranteeing at least one more year of the Jason Garrett experience. Cowboys -3
Chicago Bears +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is averaging 28.1 points per game this year while Chicago is averaging 18.3. What would we have to see from Matt Nagy’s team (who has nothing to play for after being eliminated from the playoffs last week) for them to keep this game close? I love watching the Bears’ defense, partly because Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson make it fun and partly because it saves me from watching Mitchell Trubisky forget to set his feet and sail throws. Patrick Mahomes won’t be stopped, and this one will be over early. Chiefs -5.5
Minnesota Vikings -4.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
These teams are pretty evenly matched, which makes a line so far above the standard 3 surprising. Minnesota has won eight of their last ten games, but that includes narrow home wins over Denver and Washington. With Dalvin Cook banged up, the Vikings’ offense will struggle a bit more than usual on the ground. Mix in some flashes of magic from Aaron Rodgers and the steady-if-unspectacular Green Bay offense, and this divisional rivalry screams 28-24. Either way, 4.5 is enough to get us a win with the underdog. Packers +4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
