2019 NFL Picks Week 17: Make or Break Time
16 weeks, 240 picks, and far too many words have brought us here: two games below .500 with one full slate of games to go. I would have to go 16-0 to actually “beat” Vegas after taking the vig into account, but let’s pretend getting more than half our picks right for the season counts for something. All it would take is a third consecutive 10-6 week in the dreaded Week 17. Some teams will be sitting their starters entirely, others will lose interest halfway through and bring on the 2nd string, and sometimes it won’t matter because the other team has nothing to play for anyway. This was the week in which Matt Flynn threw six touchdown passes before signing a $20M deal with Seattle and promptly getting benched for Russell Wilson. Let’s just hope we’re Matt Flynn in this scenario, not the Lions. Never hope to be the Lions.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs. Cleveland Browns
Let’s see what these two teams have at stake. The Bengals have no reason to win this game other than the glory of picking up one extra win on their way to the top overall pick. The Browns’ best source of motivation is saving Freddie Kitchens additional embarrassment and helping him keep his job, but I’m not sure they’re fully invested in that outcome. The Browns might be a better team, but not by enough to be road favorites. Even the slightest sign of life from Cincinnati’s offense should be enough to keep them in this game, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them win outright. Bengals +3
New England Patriots -16 vs. Miami Dolphins
There isn’t much about the statistics or the recent history between these teams to suggest sixteen points is an inflated line, but New England’s offensive struggles have made it hard to picture blowouts. The Patriots need to find someone on their depth chart to show some explosiveness if they’re going to be covering more than two touchdowns, even at home in December. Even when they inevitably jump out to a big first half lead on their way to locking up a bye week, the Dolphins should have a good chance at riding Ryan Fitzpatrick to a backdoor cover. Dolphins +16
Minnesota Vikings -1 vs. Chicago Bears
Minnesota doesn’t have much to gain by winning this game, but neither do the Bears. Looking back at their meeting earlier this season, it looks more like an aberration than a matchup-specific issue for the Vikings. Maybe I’m just being optimistic and hoping another poor showing from Mitchell Trubisky will get him out of Chicago, but no one should be counting on him to beat a playoff team on the road. Vikings -1
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Is it name recognition, or something else leading to these weird lines for the Chargers? Kansas City still has an outside chance at a first-round bye (they’d need the Dolphins to win in New England), and they’ll be striving for it as long as the outcome of the related game is in doubt. I fell victim to the belief myself last week when I picked the Chargers to beat Oakland; now they’re going on the road against a team with a far better defense and a terrifying offense. Chiefs -7.5
Buffalo Bills -1 vs. New York Jets
The line is probably this small because there’s a chance Buffalo rests some or all of its starters, but even if they do, they’re still at home facing Adam Gase’s Jets. A close win over Mason Rudolph last week can’t make us forget how bad and inconsistent the Jets have been all year, and two straight wins over .500 or above teams is more than we should expect. If the Bills keep most of their defensive starters on the field, they could win the game even without any help from the offense. Bills -1
Detroit Lions +13 vs. Green Bay Packers
A win here somehow locks up the top seed in the NFC for the Packers, which seems very strange until you look closer at their schedule. Their best win of the season came against a Chiefs team without Patrick Mahomes, and they barely squeaked by the Lions earlier this season. Detroit has been on a steady downward trajectory since then, but the chance to go against a division rival at home should spark some sign of life. Or maybe they’ll all be depressed knowing their owner already guaranteed Matt Patricia another season…just stay away from this one in all possible ways. Lions +13
Carolina Panthers +13 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Panthers barely came to play last week, losing by 32 points to an Indianapolis team whose most important players are all looking forward to an offseason of physical rehab. Now they’ll be going against a Saints team who needs a win to stay in the mix for a bye week. The extremely squishy Carolina defense (32 points per game allowed in their 7-game losing streak) should give Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas plenty of room to rack up points, and the Saints’ still-underrated defense shouldn’t fare worse than the Colts did against rookie Will Grier last week. Saints -13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers EVEN vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay and Atlanta both feature exciting offenses, but only one has a quarterback who routinely throws interceptions of the first drive of their games. I don’t see huge differences between these two teams, which simplifies things quite a bit. With Jameis Winston averaging nearly two interceptions per game, Matt Ryan should get plenty of extra opportunities to find Julio Jones and move the ball up and down the field through the air, avoiding the Buccaneers’ strong run defense. Unless he also catches the Christmas spirit and volunteers to give the ball back a couple of times, Atlanta should have no trouble locking up their sixth win in their final eight games. Falcons to win
New York Giants +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia got a huge win last week, giving them the chance to wrap up the NFC East with a win over the Giants here. There’s no reason to think they aren’t capable of doing so, but there’s no reason to think they’d be just 8-7 at this point either. If the NFC East hates anything, it’s clarity in establishing its best team; this game and the Dallas-Washington slapfight should keep all possibilities in play until the final whistle. Unless the Eagles can generate some kind of rhythm in an offense based on Miles Sanders, tight ends, and nothing else, no spread is safe. Giants +5
Houston Texans +6 vs. Tennessee Titans
This line has moved quite a bit since it was originally posted, so I’m glad I got it when I did. I’d hate to be picking either of these teams with a spread between plus- and minus-3, but 6 points seems like it should be enough when you have Deshaun Watson going against Ryan Tannehill. The Titans still have very slim playoff hopes, but I expect Bill O’Brien to take at least the first half of this game seriously. Unless Derrick Henry is back at 100%, one half should be enough. Texans +6
Dallas Cowboys -10 vs. Washington
Losing to an undermanned Eagles team last week was a fitting way to see the heat turned up on Jason Garrett’s seat, and he certainly deserves a good portion of the blame. Far more concerning for this game is Dak Prescott’s shoulder, which seems to be affecting his accuracy considerably. When a team like the Cowboys operates archaically enough to run the ball on first and second down repeatedly, an inconsistent quarterback will have trouble moving the sticks against anyone. Washington is going to give up a lot of yards, but I actually like what their offense can do with Case Keenum under center. Besides, an easy win would make the NFC East playoff picture more clear-cut, and where’s the fun in that? Washington +10
Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens are one of the few teams who come into this week with truly nothing to play for. They’ve already wrapped up the top seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that’s really all we need to know here. They have no reason to play their starters, and Pittsburgh needs this win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. I’ll take that giant discrepancy in circumstances and a free point and count on Pittsburgh to win on the road. Steelers +1
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
After reading about the issues Jacksonville had under Tom Coughlin, I’m wondering if they might be fully checked out on the season. It’s been fun to see Gardner Minshew again, but he’s been crushed at home by both the Buccaneers and the Chargers. The Colts are better than both those teams, and I think Jacoby Brissett might be feeling somewhat recovered from his mid-season injury. Unless the Jaguars can convince their defense to show up, a well-coached Indianapolis team should have no trouble heading into the offseason on a win. Colts -4
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Oakland Raiders
This feels like a perfect scenario for Drew Lock and the Broncos: at home, against a Raiders team with no defense, nothing to lose heading into the offseason. Denver has done a good job against most of the middling competition on their schedule this year, and I’m not seeing anything from Oakland I would describe as middling. For the Raiders, adding cold weather and high altitudes with an impending relocation sounds like the beginning of an instruction manual for laying an egg. Broncos -3.5
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The line still hasn’t been posted for this game with Kyler Murray listed as a gametime decision. We’ll try to update before kickoff if anything gets posted, but I kind of like the Cardinals getting anything over 7 points here if Murray is healthy. If he’s still banged up…the Rams have won the last four meetings between these two teams by an average score of 33-8, and this will give us something similar.
UPDATE: Kyler Murray is still listed as a gametime decision, but the spread is only 6.5. Rams -6.5
Rams -6.5
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Some combination of Brian Schottenheimer, Pete Carroll, and Russell Wilson cost me my fantasy championship last week. Playing at home against Arizona’s 28th-ranked pass defense, they managed just 224 yards and 13 points. The 49ers haven’t exactly looked like a juggernaut either, winning just two of their past four games with a point differential of -5. No one should have faith in Jimmy Garoppolo putting together a complete game for four quarters at this point, but at least San Francisco can claim a difficult slate of opponents. I think they’ll make a statement here and claim the NFC West once and for all. 49ers -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
