2019 NFL Postseason Picks: Wild Card Weekend
Sooooooo close! We were SO close to finishing the season at .500. Denver went and gave up two field goals and a touchdown in the last ten minutes of game time, missing a field goal of their own to blow what would have been a cover at -3.5. The season is full of ups and downs, though, and at least we have a full postseason to make up for our mistakes. Let’s see if we can get any better with the league’s worst quarterbacks and units on vacation!
Houston Texans -3 vs. Buffalo Bills
Houston’s offense has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde type situation all year, and their performance has been strongly correlated with Will Fuller’s presence on the field. Fuller is a credible deep threat who helps create space for the rest of the Texans’ offense to operate, but the splits make him look like peak Randy Moss. When Fuller has participated fully, the Texans have scored 26.0 points per game and gone 7-2. When he’s been out or left games early, they’ve scored 21.7 points per game and gone 3-3 (they sat everyone in Week 17). Fuller is, of course, questionable for Saturday’s game. The Bills should be jealous of either version, as Josh Allen and their offense have scored under 20 points in 8 of 15 games (excluding Week 17). They managed to win three of those games because their 6th-ranked defense has been so effective all season, but it’s difficult to shut down Deshaun Watson so completely. The deciding factor should be whether or not Buffalo can effectively run the ball on Houston’s 26th-ranked defense. If they can consistently put Josh Allen in manageable situations and keep the pocket clean, they should have no trouble hitting short and intermediate passes; lucky for them, Houston had one of the worst pass rushes in the league this season, and even the early return of J.J. Watt isn’t likely to fix it entirely. It’s probably going to be close regardless of who wins, and with that in mind I like the better overall team with the coaching edge getting points. Bills +3
New England Patriots -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
What an odd year to be picking either of these teams. The Patriots have been in a definite slump in the second half, with their defense allowing 20.5 points per game en route to a 4-4 record. That’s hardly bad (it would rank 11th in points per game allowed over the whole season), but it pales in comparison to the 7.6 points per game they allowed in their 8-0 start. Their offense has received most of the coverage, as we’re accustomed to seeing Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels finish higher than 11th in DVOA, but they’re still above average. The Titans’ offense finished ahead of them in 6th place, but even that doesn’t tell the whole story. Since Ryan Tannehill took over the starting job in Week 7, Tennessee has gone 7-3 and averaged over 30 points per game. They’ve needed every bit of it, as their 16th-ranked defense has allowed almost 24 points per game over the same span, but something is clearly working there. The question for this matchup is whether they can keep up what they’ve done against a far superior opponent. In the Tannehill era, Tennessee has played one top-ten defense by DVOA, and the average ranking of the ten teams they’ve placed is 20th. Even with Stephon Gilmore looking mortal again, the Patriots present a much stiffer challenge than anything they’ve gone against so far. If New England can squeeze one or two explosive plays out of James White and N’Keal Harry, it will be enough to pull away from a Titans’ offense I expect to struggle. It’s not exciting, but it’s not time to pick against Belichick and Brady just yet. Patriots -4.5
New Orleans Saints -8 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Saints have now gone 37-11 over their last three regular seasons, but their luck just won’t seem to change. Last year it was a pass interference non-call egregious enough to make the NFL change the rules around challenges. Two years ago, it was the Minneapolis Miracle against this same Vikings team. This year, their 13-3 record couldn’t even get them a first-round bye, as the Packers and 49ers finished ahead of them on tiebreakers. Now, the 4th-ranked Saints are hosting the 7th-ranked Vikings to start off Sunday of Wild Card Weekend. New Orleans doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but injuries along their defensive line have made them more vulnerable against the run than they were earlier in the season. I’m sure Mike Zimmer is excited, as he talks about the importance of a run game incessantly and clashed with his previous offensive coordinator over how frequently they passed the ball last year. Of course, passing the ball is more efficient in general, and the Vikings’ best running back is playing at less than 100%. It seems unlikely that Drew Brees and Sean Payton will embrace a gameplan designed to keep things close, and if they can jump out to a lead at home, Minnesota will have to lean on their play-action passing game more than Zimmer may like. The Saints shouldn’t have much trouble getting out to that lead, as the Vikings’ secondary has struggled all season long. Michael Thomas, this year’s best wide receiver, is playing the team ranked 21st in defending #1 wide receivers. Alvin Kamara will be coming out of the backfield, where the Vikings ranked 11th against opposing RBs in the pass game. The Saints simply have too many weapons for the declining Minnesota defense to handle, and they’ll be out for revenge for the absurd way they lost this matchup two years ago. Saints -8
Philadelphia Eagles +2 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 12-4 Seahawks will be traveling to Philadelphia to take on the 9-7 Eagles in the Wild Card Weekend game with the smallest spread. Seattle is a difficult team to project, as they’ve mixed 30+ point outings against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Vikings with under-20 duds against the Eagles and Cardinals. Of course, they won their earlier matchup against Philadelphia 17-9 in a game where no one could get anything going on offense. Neither team has been outstanding coming into this weekend; the Eagles haven’t beaten a non-NFC East team since Week 9, and the Seahawks lost three of their last four games. When Seattle has the ball, they’ll be looking to attack an injury-ravaged Philadelphia secondary who has given up 25+ points to teams like Detroit, Green Bay, and Washington. Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer will continue to do their best to limit the positive impact Russell Wilson can have on the game, but if they need to air it out, they shouldn’t encounter much resistance. The Eagles are poised to enjoy similar success, as Seattle’s 18th-ranked defense has held only two teams under 20 points all season. With Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs playing through injuries, Carson Wentz will have opportunities to hit big plays. Who he finds at the other end of his passes is a much bigger question. Alshon Jeffery is the Eagles’ leading wide receiver this season, and he caught passes in only eight games this season. Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Miles Sanders are all ahead of him in receiving yardage, and two of those three players are fighting through injuries of their own. It likely won’t be pretty for either team, but I like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to make more big plays than their counterparts in Philly, and I like the Seahawks to win yet another one-score game. Seahawks -2
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
