2019 NFL Postseason Picks: Conference Championships
We are one victory away from a Ryan Tannehill Super Bowl, and I’m just not comfortable with that. The dream of a .500 season has died once again, but we can still finish strong and get the mystical momentum on our side heading into next season. Let’s see if the Chiefs and 49ers can make analytics look good again!
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Two weeks ago, the Titans’ victory over the Patriots seemed easy to explain in hindsight; the Patriots were 4-4 in their last 8 games coming in, and their weaponless offense just couldn’t come up with the one big play they needed to win and cover. Last week’s elimination of Baltimore still doesn’t make any sense. The Ravens outgained the Titans 530-300, converted a higher percentage of their third downs, and held Ryan Tannehill below 100 yards passing. Somehow they scored even fewer points than the Patriots in a 28-12 loss. Turnovers played a big role, and Tennessee deserves credit for capitalizing on Baltimore’s mistakes, but turnovers and red zone success are two famously unsustainable statistics. The Chiefs had more takeaways and fewer giveaways than the Titans in the regular season, and their offense represents an entirely different challenge than anything Tennessee has seen since they played the Saints in Week 16. Kansas City’s ability to generate big plays in the passing game is comparable only to Seattle’s, and Patrick Mahomes will be testing the Titans’ secondary early and often. I assume Mike Vrabel and his staff (the one he won’t lose if they win the Super Bowl) will stay committed to their Derrick Henry-as-Juggernaut gameplan as long as they can, but how long will that be? I like the odds of a cover if the Chiefs can get out to an early lead, and when Mahomes is raining hellfire like Les Grossman on Flaming Dragon, that shouldn’t be an issue. Chiefs -7.5
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Last week I picked the Seahawks to upset the Packers, and the game went mostly according to plan. Seattle fell behind 28-10 in the third quarter, finally felt panicked enough to let their Hall of Fame quarterback throw the ball, and pulled within 5. Pete Carroll got me good by punting the ball away with under three minutes left in the game and the league’s 18th-ranked defense, but they had a real chance to pull off the comeback. That doesn’t bode well for the Packers, who continued a troubling trend of inconsistent scoring. For the season, Green Bay ranked 3rd in first quarter points and 7th in third quarter points, but 26th and 28th in second and fourth quarter points. Those statistics are subject to some noise, but it seems like Matt LaFleur’s offense struggles after running out of scripted plays. The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league, regardless of quarter, and they looked dominant again last week with most of their starters back and healthy. The Packers deserve some credit for keeping Russell Wilson out of the end zone for most of the game, but you can’t understate how committed the Seahawks are to shooting themselves in the foot. Despite trailing the entire game, Seattle ran the ball 24 times for 110 yards. 4.6 yards per carry doesn’t seem bad on the surface, but seven of those carries and 64 of the yards came from Russell Wilson. Other Seahawks’ players ran the ball 17 times for 46 yards. The 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan will stretch the field in all directions, and they’ll have no trouble generating consistent first downs against Green Bay’s very average (15th in DVOA) defense. San Francisco crushed the Packers at home in Week 12, and I don’t see a lot of evidence to suggest this time will be any different. 49ers -7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
