2019 NFL Postseason Picks: Super Bowl
After all that fuss, we ended up with a one-seed and a two-seed in the Super Bowl. Let’s find out if the gap between Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo is large enough to make up for the general strengths of the San Francisco roster.
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers I don’t know if I’ve been this excited for a Super Bowl matchup on paper since the Seahawks-Patriots battle after the 2014 season. Panthers-Broncos in 2015 was diminished by the retirement version of Peyton Manning, the 2016 Matt Ryan Falcons seemed fun but not a huge threat to the Patriots, the 2017 Eagles were starting a backup quarterback, and the Rams inteferered their way through the 2018 NFC Championship game. This year is a lot different, with the 49ers looking like the best team in the NFC all season long, and the Chiefs looking unstoppable with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Both teams have won both playoff games by double digits, and San Francisco’s 27 points against the Vikings was the worst offensive performance of the four. They may do it in very different ways, with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing 27 passes in two games compared to Patrick Mahomes’s 70, but you can’t deny the effectiveness. The defenses present a different comparison, with the 49ers dominating opponents all season en route to a 2nd place finish in DVOA and the Chiefs coasting along in 14th. Both teams were above average in special teams, but Kansas City ranked considerably higher at 2nd than the Niners in 12th.
I spent most of this week planning to take the Kansas City Chiefs, and it makes sense in a lot of ways. They have undoubtedly the best quarterback in the NFL, their head coach is consistently ahead of the curve in offensive innovation, and they haven’t lost a game since Week 10. Star defensive tackle Chris Jones will presumably be healthier with a two week break since he returned in the Conference Championship game, and their pass defense has been strong all year. As good as Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and San Francisco’s run game has been, should we really expect them to keep up for a whole game?
Well, yes, actually. As dominant as the Kansas City offense has been this postseason, their wins have required double-digit comebacks against teams ranked 26th and 16th in defensive DVOA. Not only is it discouraging to see them fall behind in both games, but the prospect of battling back in this game is much scarier. The 49ers’ defense is as close to full health as you could ask for at this point of a season, and their defensive line is capable of dominating a game on their own. The Chiefs’ offensive line is strong, so it should be a great battle to watch, but you have to think they’ll make things more difficult on the Chiefs than Houston or Tennessee did. If you splice the games together, the San Francisco defense is too good to let Kansas City score 51 points in three quarters, and the Niners’ offense is too good to go scoreless for a critical 20 minutes of game time.
I’ve found myself tempted to pick the best player in games like this before, and the best player logic points to the Chiefs. San Francisco is a deeper and more well-balanced team, though. Both offenses can look unstoppable, but only one has the benefit of going against a defense ranked 29th against the run. I’ll be cheering for the Chiefs and hoping for a Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP, but I’ll take the better team and the points for these purposes. 49ers +1.5
Also, OVER 55 points. Far, far over.
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
