2019 NFL Postseason Picks: Divisional Weekend
Well it wouldn’t be the NFL playoffs without some real weirdness, and we got it in spades. The Bills let a 16-point lead slip away, the Patriots had multiple chances to cover with one clutch drive, and the Saints lost on an uncalled pass interference of a different variety. I’m sure nothing strange will happen with the remaining teams…right?
San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
It felt like the Vikings controlled most of their game against the Saints last weekend, but nearly came away with a loss anyway. If Wil Lutz made his field goal to end the first half, if Sean Payton hadn’t used his timeouts in the absolute least effective way, or if offensive pass interference was a call referees were willing to make with the game on the line, we could be looking at the 49ers hosting the Seahawks. Instead, we have Kirk Cousins vs. Jimmy Garoppolo in the Bay. Minnesota has been a strange team all season, with only one loss to a non-playoff team (excluding Week 17). They also didn’t beat a lot of good teams; they swept the Lions and the NFC East, added wins against the Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers, and lost to the Matt Moore version of the Chiefs. Most concerningly, in a must-win home game against Green Bay in Week 16, they lost 23-10. When Kirk Cousins is getting and hitting deep shots in the play-action game, the Vikings offense looks easy. When those plays are missing, they look like the Bears (who they also lost to). Their defense looked great last week, but the 49ers present some unique challenges. Kyle Shanahan’s offense excels at stretching defenses until they break, and we know Minnesota can be broken. Russell Wilson dropped 37 points on their heads back in Week 11, and the Seahawks have played two close games with the Niners this year. San Francisco’s offense operates in a much different way, but their defense might be able to pitch in with some points of their own. The Vikings’ pass protection was middling this year, and I expect them to come out with the same ball-hawking approach they displayed early in the season. If the Niners can get out ahead early, I think we’ll be watching a preview of their dominant win over Green Bay in Week 12. 49ers -7
Baltimore Ravens -9 vs. Tennessee Titans
I went back and forth and back again on this pick. There’s a lot of excitement around Tennessee after their upset win over the Patriots last week, and much of it is deserved; the Patriots don’t lose very often, in case you’re new to the sport. For most of the game it felt like Derrick Henry would run for 9 yards every carry, and the Patriots could never string together enough plays to close the gap. There’s a reason the analytics community begs teams not to give their running backs big contracts, though; Henry ran the ball 34 times for 182 yards (5.4 ypc), and the Titans only scored 14 points on offense. It’s very difficult to generate consistent offense on a run game alone, unless you have a gamebreaker in the exact right scheme. Enter Lamar Jackson. The Ravens averaged 33.2 points per game this season, and come into this game on a 12-game winning streak. They’ve won eight of those games by at least 10 points, and they should have no trouble moving the ball on Tennessee’s 16th-ranked defense. If the Titans are going to hang around in this game, it won’t be by handing the ball off 34 times. They’ll need Ryan Tannehill to step up and make big-time throws, and the very opportunistic Earl Thomas and Marcus Peters will be waiting for him. Baltimore has been the best team in the league by a wide margin, and there’s no reason to expect the wheels to fall off now. Ravens -9
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Houston Texans
Part of me wants to call Houston’s win over Buffalo, but when the opposing team’s quarterback is willing to blindly lateral to his tight end with the game on the line, it might be more than just luck. Still, they’ll need to get off to a faster start if they hope to hang with a fully rested and presumably healthy Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. They showed the ability to do it earlier this season with Will Fuller in the lineup, but he’s still a big question mark. JJ Watt made a surprisingly big impact given the injury he was returning from, but see my aforementioned comment about Josh Allen, and you’ll understand why I’m not super enthusiastic about Houston’s defense. I think this game will be decided by Kansas City’s defense. They finished the season 14th in DVOA, and were far better against the pass (6th) than the run (29th). They only gave up 11.5 points per game after their Week 12 bye, but those games came against the Chargers (twice), Raiders, Patriots, Bears, and Broncos. The big concerns here are Andy Reid’s long playoff history of puzzling losses and their weak run defense. We watched the Colts go into Kansas City and win earlier this year by running the ball effectively enough to drain the clock and prevent Patrick Mahomes from finding any kind of rhythm on a limited number of possessions. I don’t think the Texans can replicate their success to get a win (their offensive line isn’t nearly as good, for starters), but with Deshaun Watson working his magic, they can keep things reasonable. Texans +10
Green Bay Packers -4 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams who seem a bit fraudulent are facing off in Lambeau Field this weekend. The Seahawks finished 11-5 but only had a point differential of +7, and the Packers finished 13-3 with a point differential of “just” +63. Those are the two lowest non-Eagles totals in the NFC. Neither team has felt consistent, but they’ve been inconsistent in different ways. Seattle bounces around game to game, mixing 30+ point explosions with duds against inferior competition. The Packers can’t seem to put together a complete performance in one game. In their last eight games, they broke 30 points once, against the notably terrible Giants. One score wins over Detroit, Chicago, Washington, and Carolina are hardly encouraging. These two teams have a history of weird games against each other, and Seattle has a formidable history of weird games with just about everyone. Seattle is the better team by DVOA, and if this game comes down to the wire, I’m going to stick with the superior quarterback. At this point of their careers, that’s Russell Wilson. Seahawks +4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
