2020 NFL Picks Week 10: It's not QUITE 28-3
Well, at least such a terrible week of picks was bad enough to set a new record for futility. 2-12 is in fact the single worst week of picks we’ve had in the history of this website, but we still have eight weeks to try to get back above .500. And our over/under parlay hit for the first time, which at roughly 12:1 odds means we came out slightly ahead in Week 9! We’ll take what we can get. On to Week 10!Well, at least such a terrible week of picks was bad enough to set a new record for futility. 2-12 is in fact the single worst week of picks we’ve had in the history of this website, but we still have eight weeks to try to get back above .500. And our over/under parlay hit for the first time, which at roughly 12:1 odds means we came out slightly ahead in Week 9! We’ll take what we can get. On to Week 10!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Call me a cynic, but I wasn’t blown away when the Titans needed a defensive touchdown to sneak past my Chicago Bears last week. I was slightly more confident in Philip Rivers and Frank Reich, and they delivered in a big way. Indianapolis was 6th in DVOA compared to Tennessee’s 12th coming into this matchup, so I was happy to see them getting the full three points on the road. Colts +3
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m very disappointed in the Giants for making the NFC East race competitive, and pretty well shocked to see their defense ranked all the way up at 22nd for the season. Philly is even higher, at 11th, but the Giants have a slight edge on offense and a big edge on special teams. That’s right, the Giants are ranked higher in Total DVOA than the Eagles. Even setting aside the glory that would be no NFC East teams with 4 wins coming out of Week 10, there’s no way the Giants should be getting this many points at home here. Giants +3.5
Green Bay Packers -14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I haven’t dug much into the background of Jacksonville’s new-ish starting quarterback, Jake Luton, both because I doubt it’s going to be revelatory and I really enjoyed the Gardner Minshew experience. There aren’t many starting QBs good enough to make the Jacksonville roster competitive, and they have a brutal road test here heading up to Green Bay in what we Midwesterners call “final fall”. The forecast calls for a high of 36 degrees, and I think the Jaguars will check out of this game early with dreams of warmer weather. Packers -14
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Washington has really been tough on me this year, pulling upsets when I pick against them and falling short whenever I find a bit of confidence. The quarterback carousel they’ve been riding doesn’t help matters, but they’ve resorted to their most qualified candidate in Alex Smith at this point. I’m still a bit nervous watching Alex Smith in the line of fire, but at least he’s facing Detroit’s 23rd-ranked pass rush in this game. If Washington can find any offensive spark, they should be able to cover easily. Football Team +3.5
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Houston Texans
Cleveland is back after a bye, and so is running back Nick Chubb. The Texans haven’t looked good against anyone, but Cleveland hasn’t really been convincing outside of a win against Indianapolis. Both teams are going to put up a lot of points, and I like the idea of getting points and the better quarterback. Texans +3
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers did exactly what an underdog should against the Chiefs last week, aggressively going for it on fourth downs and even pulling out a fake punt. It was nearly enough to come away with a win, but I’m a little worried they’re low on ammo coming into this week. The Bucs will be looking to bounce back in a big way after getting blown out against New Orleans, and they’ll be able to cover a touchdown without breaking a sweat unless Carolina can hit on all of their long shots again. Buccaneers -4.5
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tua showed some great flashes last week, but this pick is all about the Chargers. They continuously find new ways to lose close games, and this matchup provides plenty of options. The other L.A. team ranks dead last in Special Teams, and the Dolphins are 2nd. Even with Justin Herbert’s best efforts, Miami is going to find the little advantages they need to stay in the AFC East race. Dolphins -3
Las Vegas Raiders -4.5 vs. Denver Broncos
The only way the Broncos will be able to hang in this game is if Drew Lock decides to play all game like he has in the second halves of recent games. His performances in those situations are either a reflection of growing pains or just the benefit of garbage time defenses. Las Vegas’s offense is plenty potent enough to get out to an early lead, and I think they’ll control the clock well enough to avoid a backdoor cover from Denver. Raiders -4.5
Arizona Cardinals -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Cards and Bills both have great offenses and middling defenses, which should result in a very fun game in the desert this week. I’m giving a slight edge to Buffalo here, mostly because I was impressed with their gameplan against a mobile QB in Russell Wilson last week. They managed to get controlled pressure far more often than I expected, and if they can pull it off again this week they might be able to keep Kyler Murray limited in some way. I also think they have a slight edge in coaching, where Kliff Kingsbury is promising but still learning (see: settling for a 4th and 1 field goal last week). Bills +1.5
New Orleans Saints -9.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
We could be looking at a letdown from the Saints after their demolition of Tampa Bay, or we could be looking at a fully healthy version of New Orleans finally rolling and hosting an incredibly injured 49ers squad. I think the latter is more likely, and we’ll be talking about the Saints as the class of the NFC again after this week. Saints -9.5
Los Angeles Rams -1.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Are the Seahawks suffering bad luck recently, or are they regressing to the mean? Russell Wilson’s early-season exploits got Seattle to 5-0 with four one-score victories. It’s hard to win consistently when your defense is so bad against the pass (29th), and it gets worse when the opposing coach is smart enough to take advantage. Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll called two running plays in the first half last week, and Sean McVay is certainly smart enough to lean on the pass as well. Seattle may very well pull out another victory behind Russell Wilson’s heroics, but I think the Rams should be getting the full three points here. Rams -1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -8.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I can’t tell if I’m more mad at myself for picking the Steelers to cover a huge spread on the road last week, or at the Steelers for giving up 19 points to this version of the Cowboys. Their quarterback was Garrett Gilbert! He was their fourth choice coming into the season, and the Steelers’ defense was 2nd in DVOA. Anyway, I think Pittsburgh will bounce back this week, but Joe Burrow is a much stronger challenge than anything the Cowboys could throw at them last week. The Steelers will probably win, but this spread is too high against a Bengals team that has only lost one game by more than five points all year. Bengals +8.5
New England Patriots +7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This line is heavily based in respect for Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ organization, but Baltimore has never struggled to stomp on the Pats when given the opportunity. These teams have played nine times since 2010, and Baltimore has won four of those games; three have come by 15 points or more, including last year’s 37-20 victory. They have the competitive advantage to do the same this year, and I have no idea why we’d expect the 2020 Patriots to fare any better than the 2019 version did. Ravens -7
Chicago Bears +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I don’t want to sound too analytical, but the Bears suck. These are two teams heading in absolutely different directions, and I’m looking at the Vikings as a better version of the Titans. They both lean heavily on the run and play action, they both have middling defenses, and neither has a particular impressive point differential. I think the Vikings are just now starting to find their footing, which doesn’t bode well for the Bears unless they can come up with some defensive scores. Vikings -2.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Seattle-Los Angeles OVER 55
Los Angeles-Miami OVER 49
Houston-Cleveland OVER 45.5
Buffalo-Arizona OVER 56.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
