2020 NFL Picks Week 9: Brady vs. Brees
We were looking so good in the early slate, and the rug was just pulled from under our feet. But every week is a new experiment, and I’m feeling good about the picks this week. Except for the one on Thursday Night Football - just ignore that one.
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
San Francisco 49ers +8 vs. Green Bay Packers
My thought coming in was that any limitations the Niners would face from COVID absences might be offset by the Packers’ inability to stop anything Kyle Shanahan does (see: 2019 Conference Championship Game). I was wrong. San Francisco +8
New York Jets +7.5 vs. New England Patriots
New England is definitely in trouble. The team we saw nearly take down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks has been entirely missing in the time since, with a late Cam Newton fumble sealing their fate last week. I don’t think anyone on the Jets has ever forced a fumble. Patriots -7.5
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I had a very hard time picking this game, because the Ravens actually looked great for much of their game against the fantastic Steelers’ defense last week. Baltimore is certainly capable of moving the ball, but now we need to decide if the turnovers are a natural side effect of a struggling offense versus a good defense or pure luck; I think it’s more of the former, so the Colts should hold the Ravens tight. I just have barely enough faith in Philip Rivers to make this a close game. Colts +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -11 vs. Carolina Panthers
Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady has done a great job with Teddy Bridgewater and Co. this season. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are on the other side, facing a defense incapable of stopping any big play. Chiefs -11
Tennessee Titans -6 vs. Chicago Bears
The Titans can move the ball on offense with a post-Adam-Gase Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry making three downs seem superfluous. Unfortunately for Tennessee, their defense makes every offense looks good. The Bears can win any game where their offense isn’t actively dying, and this should be one of them. Bears +6
Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Denver Broncos
As a Noah Fant fantasy manager, I’m not very excited about Drew Lock. Since the Falcons made their deal with the devil to get Kyle Shanahan as their Offensive Coordinator, I’m not sure they’re allowed to win by more than 1 point. Broncos +4
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. Detroit Lions
The Vikings are great as long as the opposing defense allows Dalvin Cook to run wild en route to as many yards and touchdowns as he would like. I think the Lions will do a bit more than enough. Lions +4
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 vs. Houston Texans
I just can’t quit Deshaun Watson. Even if everyone in his organization has. He’s good enough to beat the Jags by a touchdown. Texans -6.5
Washington Football Team -2.5 vs. New York Giants
Daniel Jones loves to give the ball away, and the Washington Football Team has plenty of players willing to take it. Whether either team will ever find a QB is a mystery. Football Team -2.5
Buffalo Bills +2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
One team has an MVP Candidate, the other has an early-season-MVP-candidate. I’ll take the team with the candidate still cookin’. Seahawks -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I really enjoy watching Justin Herbert, but seeing the Raiders as underdogs here was quite a surprise. Las Vegas seems to have a decent gameplan each week and they rarely wind up underwater early in games. They can game control this one to a win. Raiders +1.5
Arizona Cardinals -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This bet is mostly riding on how good Tua will be in his second start. He wasn’t great in his first week, but the defense and special teams of Miami really stepped up in a big way. I expect Arizona to demand more of Tua, and I don’t know if he’s ready yet. Cardinals -4.5
Dallas Cowboys +14.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers should hold the Cowboys to 0 points here. Steelers -14.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady has looked better and better each week, but for some reason he thinks he needs Antonio Brown around. Between such irresponsible behavior and the Saints rounding into form, I’ll take the points. Saints +4.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Carolina-Kansas City OVER 53
Houston-Jacksonville OVER 50.5
Las Vegas-Los Angeles OVER 52
Miami-Arizona OVER 49
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
