2020 NFL Picks Week 11: A Time for Vengeance
It was a nice bounceback week, but we still have a long way to go to get back over .500. Hopefully we earned some miracle credit by losing our Bills pick to the Hail Murray last week. At the very least, it’s a great sign that we don’t have to pick or watch a Bears game this week! Here we go:
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I was pretty confident we would get a one score game in this one, even if it didn’t come down to another OT thriller like Week 7. I liked the matchup of Kyler Murray against Seattle’s hypothetical defense a bit more than the suddenly turnover-prone Russ against Arizona’s 9th-ranked squad, but a combined 18 penalties really ruined my pick and the viewing experience. Ah well, 13 picks to go! Cardinals +3.5
New Orleans Saints -5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’m not sure how to feel about the Saints’ announcement that Taysom Hill will be starting in place of the injured Drew Brees this week rather than Jameis Winston. On the one hand, I picked Hill up as a TE in my ESPN fantasy league, which makes no sense but should be fun for a week; on the other, I picked the Saints expecting them to start a quarterback at quarterback. Still, the game is in New Orleans and they have the benefit of the 5th-ranked defense going against a 3-6 Atlanta team who gave up 30 points to the Bears and 27 points to the Broncos. Don’t overthink this one. Saints -5
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is going on the road as a double-digit favorite against a bottom-tier team once again, just two weeks after squeaking out a win against Garrett Gilbert and the Cowboys. Jacksonville hasn’t won a game since their Week 1 victory over the Colts, but they’ve lost their last two games by just 6 total points. Unfortunately for them, the Steelers present an entirely different challenge than the Packers; Pittsburgh’s defense is 2nd in DVOA compared to Green Bay’s 16th, and their Special Teams ranks 8th to Green Bay’s 24th. I don’t think the Jaguars will come by the accidental points they found last week, and the Steelers will roll on to 10-0. Steelers -10
Carolina Panthers ??? vs. Detroit Lions
Still no line on this game as we wait for an update on Teddy Bridgewater’s status. We’ll drop in again if it posts in time for some real analysis.
Washington Football Team -1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Four combined wins here, but Washington sits just 1.5 games out of first place in the NFC East. I don’t really see either team as a “winner” coming out of this one, but one team does have a promising young quarterback. We’re going to go with Cincinnati and the extra point here based on a belief in their ability to convert third downs now and then. Bengals +1
Houston Texans +2.5 vs. New England Patriots
The Texans are in truly dire straits with all two of their wins this season coming against Jacksonville and their first-round pick heading to Miami next year. New England is facing their own problems, sitting at third place in the AFC East and boasting just one road win against the Jets. Cam Newton has looked better each week since coming back from his COVID absence, and Houston’s defense has only looked good against the Browns and the Jets. I think New England will be able to come up with just enough points to get a close win here, and I like giving less than the full field goal. Patriots -2.5
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This game is going to be gross. Cleveland has done their best to maximize a 1940s-style offense with two top-end running backs in Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, while the Eagles seem intent on avoiding any type of offensive rhythm whatsoever. I’m just not ready to see the Browns sitting at 7-3 when Baker Mayfield is yet to throw for 300 yards in a game. Let’s take the points in what should be an ugly battle. Eagles +3
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Baltimore hasn’t been able to regain their 2019 form, but Tennessee’s 24th-ranked defense should help things along. The biggest concern I have is the gaping hole in the center of Baltimore’s defense, with Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams both doubtful this week against Derrick Henry. I think the Ravens are smart enough as an organization to make the right adjustments on offense to avoid a repeat of last year’s playoff upset, and I don’t think Ryan Tannehill can come up big when the Titans will need him. Baltimore needs a big win to re-establish themselves as contenders, and they should get it this week. Ravens -6.5
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Broncos and Drew Lock are officially terrible. None of their three wins this year have been impressive, and they’ve made a habit of falling behind big early. The Dolphins, on the other hand, seem to be hitting their stride and introducing Tua Tagovailoa at the right pace to help him succeed. I think their advantages on defense and special teams will lead them to a big win, and put even more pressure on Denver to find a quarterback. Dolphins -3
Los Angeles Chargers -9 vs. New York Jets
The Chargers are incredible at finding new ways to lose, but the Jets have no interest in winning. That’s how we end up with a 2-7 team being favored by more than a touchdown. The Jets’ only advantage in this game is on special teams, where they rank 27th in DVOA to the Chargers’ 32nd. I don’t think it will be enough of an edge for them to make up the massive gaps on offense and defense, and more importantly, Adam Gase is still the head coach. If the Chargers are up 14 late, he’ll happily settle for a long field goal to cut the lead to 11 and we can still cover. Chargers -9
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I went back and forth on this line a couple of times, torn between my respect for Indianapolis’s rock-solid defense (19.7 ppg allowed) and my lifelong fear of Aaron Rodgers. I don’t like anything about the way Green Bay has done things over the past couple of years, drafting backup QBs and RBs early and committing themselves to a power run game with an all-timer still under center. But Indianapolis is rolling a 38-year old Philip Rivers out week after week, and in a close game, I trust Rodgers a lot more. Packers +2.5
Minnesota Vikings -7.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I’ve heard that Andy Dalton might be back this week! That’s what the Cowboys are hoping for at this point. In case you forgot, Andy Dalton started two games before getting injured, and Dallas lost those games by a combined 50 points. This is the type of game that makes you think an offense built around Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins might actually be playoff-worthy. Vikings -7.5
Las Vegas Raiders +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders handed Kansas City their only loss of the season, and somehow it only makes me want to pick the Chiefs more. Andy Reid is coming off a bye week, Kansas City needs this game to keep up with the Steelers in the chase for the top seed in the AFC, and the Raiders seem unaware of COVID’s existence or ability to spread. I think we’re in line for a statement game. Chiefs -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay has been up and down all year, and last week’s game condensed all of the uncertainty into 60 minutes. They gave up 17 points in the first half, then blanked the Panthers until they had built a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Rams have also been complicated, with a strong win over the Seahawks last week as their only great performance; their other five wins have come against the NFC East and the Bears. With the Rams on the road here, I think Tampa Bay’s defense will bring out the worst in Jared Goff, and the Bucs have enough weapons to make members of the Rams’ secondary not named Jalen Ramsey work hard. Unless Aaron Donald wins this one on his own, Tampa should cruise. Buccaneers -3.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Tennessee-Baltimore OVER 50
Dallas-Minnesota UNDER 48.5
Green Bay-Indianapolis UNDER 51.5
Los Angeles-Tampa Bay OVER 48
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
