2020 NFL Picks Week 12: Happy Thanksgiving!
It was a nice bounceback week, but we still have a long way to go to get back over .500. Hopefully we earned some miracle credit by losing our Bills pick to the Hail Murray last week. At the very least, it’s a great sign that we don’t have to pick or watch a Bears game this week! Here we go:
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Detroit Lions +2.5 vs. Houston Texans
I was lucky enough to decide the late line on Panthers-Lions was skewing unreasonably in favor of the team not starting an XFL player at quarterback, but I definitely didn’t expect the 19th-ranked Panthers’ defense to pitch a shutout. Something is very, very wrong in Detroit, and I think we can all agree it’s the head coach/GM combo hired based on nothing but proximity to Bill Belichick. I don’t like much of what I’ve seen from Houston this year, but they just beat the real Patriots last week and have a healthy Deshaun Watson. Texans -2.5
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Washington Football Team
There’s no reason to give any team in the NFC East more than the customary 3 point edge for a home team, but the Cowboys’ victory over an extremely inconsistent Vikings team isn’t enough to make me a believer. Washington’s defense should make things uncomfortable for Andy Dalton, and with Alex Smith under center, the Football Team can occasionally scrounge together a mediocre offense. By the standards of the 2020 NFC East, that’s a big edge. Football Team +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game has been postponed to Sunday because of COVID concerns, meaning our two Thanksgiving Day games feature zero teams with a winning record and four teams with a combined record of 13-27. A welcome distraction from the family or the crushing loneliness of 2020, the NFL is not. Our pick here is based on two things: first, this Steelers team isn’t good enough to go undefeated for a full season; second, Baltimore probably should have won their earlier matchup, and I’d be surprised if they couldn’t keep things within a field goal this time around with their season on the line. Pittsburgh’s offense just isn’t scary enough for me to picture a blowout. Ravens +3.5
New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
A freak storm helped New England to a close victory over the Ravens in Week 10, their only win over a non-Jets opponent since Week 3. Now they’re giving almost a full three points to a 6-4 Arizona team ranked 11th in DVOA? I’m very happy to be getting points here. Cardinals +2.5
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I’m sure the Chargers will find some way to lose this game in the final minutes, but it wouldn’t be heartbreaking enough if it was by 6 or more points. I have a lot of confidence in Justin Herbert going against a porous Bills defense, and an active Joey Bosa could cause enough problems for Josh Allen that he can’t repeat his performance against Seattle a few weeks ago. Big wins are uncommon for Buffalo, and this Chargers team is good enough to make them sweat. Chargers +5.5
New York Jets +7 vs. Miami Dolphins
I really wanted to take the Jets here, knowing a featless season is rare and you rarely see a home team giving a full touchdown. I watched their 6-point loss to the Chargers last week, though, and they needed a punt block and a time-killing safety to lose by less than a touchdown to a team ranked 24th in DVOA. The Dolphins are ranked 10th, and they’ll be looking to bounce back after a brutal loss to the Broncos. Get ready for a beating in all three phases of the game, Jets fans. Dolphins -7
Minnesota Vikings ??? vs. Carolina Panthers
No line is posted yet, so let’s just laugh at the Vikings for losing to Andy Dalton and the Cowboys. TBD
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 vs. New York Giants
The Bengals without Joe Burrow are utterly lost. They actually held a lead in their game against Washington last week, but backup Ryan Finley couldn’t muster enough offense to make field position an issue. The Giants are sneakily competent on special teams and defense, allowing just 23.6 points per game. This matchup is perfect to make delusional New York fans believe Daniel Jones can be a competent NFL quarterback. Giants -4.5
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I have no idea why this line is only three points, which makes me a bit nervous. Las Vegas ranks higher in offensive (7th to 21st) and special teams (14th to 19th) DVOA and aren’t far from the Falcons (24th to 21st) in defensive DVOA. Julio Jones has a gimpy hamstring, and Las Vegas just hung with the Chiefs for four quarters. Unless there’s a wicked travel hangover for everyone on the Raiders, they should win comfortably. Raiders -3
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I was pretty determined to take Jacksonville here until I was told they would be starting Mike Glennon at quarterback. If you need a reminder of how bad Mike Glennon is, he was benched for Mitchell Trubisky. I don’t think Jake Luton was doing anything special, but we’re throwing it back to someone who last started a game in 2017. Cleveland can, and probably will, hand the ball to Nick Chubb 25 times and let the rest take care of itself. Browns -6.5
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Nothing either of these teams have done since their last meeting has dramatically changed my opinion of them. The Titans were lucky to come back from a big deficit against the Ravens last week, and Indianapolis found some sort of offensive groove against the Packers to pull out a similar comeback. The Colts are the much better team here, and Tennessee won’t be lucky enough to run the ball to victory in the fourth quarter against Indianapolis’ 5th-ranked defense. Colts -3.5
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Rams really impressed me with their win over the Buccaneers last week, and the Niners are just too banged up to beat the quality teams they have left on their schedule. They’ve lost their last three games by a combined 41 points to the Seahawks, Packers, and Saints. If they fall behind early, I can’t see an easy path for them to catch up. Rams -7
Denver Broncos +6 vs. New Orleans Saints
Whether the Saints stick with Taysom Hill or put Jameis Winston behind center, their defense has come on in a big way in recent weeks. Any form of defense is a bad sign for Drew Lock and the Broncos, who came away with a strange win against the Dolphins last week. I don’t think they can pull off a second consecutive upset. Saints -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It may be time to declare the Buccaneers “in trouble”. Since their big wins over the Packers and Raiders in Weeks 6 and 7, they’re 2-2 with wins over the Giants and Panthers. The Chiefs present a whole new world of pain on offense, and Andy Reid will find any holes on the Tampa defense and exploit them relentlessly. It’s always a risk to trust the Kansas City defense, but they’re giving just over a field goal in this case. Chiefs -3.5
Green Bay Packers ??? vs. Chicago Bears
I vaguely remember a time when this matchup was compelling. TBD
Philadelphia Eagles +5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles are only giving five points?! I know Seattle has been in somewhat of a skid, but through 10 games for each team, the Seahawks are averaging 31.8 points per game and Philadelphia is averaging 22.0. Even if Carson Wentz magically recaptures some of his previous form, the Eagles’ 20th ranked pass defense isn’t going to give Russell Wilson a hard time. No one should be picking NFC East teams going against non-NFC East teams at this point. Seahawks -5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Texans -3 vs. Detroit Lions AND UNDER 51
Football Team +3 at Dallas Cowboys AND UNDER 46
Ravens +5 at Pittsburgh Steelers AND OVER 44.5
How about a little on all six?
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
