2020 NFL Picks Week 13: Double Digit Dilemmas
The dreams of an over-.500 season are likely done, but we’ll be trying to find ways to salvage what’s left of our respectability over these last five weeks.
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Miami Dolphins -11.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I would have been pretty excited to see this game as a Burrow-Tua battle, but it just wasn’t in the cards. Instead we’ll be watching Brandon Allen under center for Cincinnati, which does not bode well for their offense going against Miami’s 10th-ranked pass defense. They may be able to lean on the run game with some success, but I have confidence in Brian Flores to come up with a scheme to make that approach unsustainable. The only question, then, is whether the Dolphins can score enough points to cover such a large spread. Working at home against the league’s 29th-ranked defense should let them get there. Dolphins -11.5
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Detroit Lions
Two teams not far apart on the coaching carousel here, with the recent firing of Matt Patricia and the (fingers crossed) impending termination of Matt Nagy. I think the standard 3 points makes a lot of sense here, but I like the Lions for intangible reasons; the Detroit locker room should be relatively optimistic if the comments of former players are any indicator, while the Chicago team was just called out by their offensive-minded head coach whose machinations have led them to an average of 19.6 points per game. If there’s a week for the Bears’ house of cards to fully collapse, it’s this one. Lions +3
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Falcons looked great last week against the Raiders, but it was only two weeks ago that they looked utterly lost against the New Orleans defense. I don’t think anyone besides Sean Payton is enjoying the Taysom Hill Experience, but nothing substantial has changed since their 15-point victory to scare me away from a field goal spread. Saints +3
Minnesota Vikings -10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I really hate picking the Vikings’ games this year. They beat Green Bay, they lose to Dallas, they squeak past the Panthers despite allowing two defensive touchdowns. They have only one win this season by 10 points or more, a 34-20 victory over Detroit in Week 9. Jacksonville has rebounded from a moribund stretch of five straight losses by 8+ points to hang close with Green Bay, Houston, and Cleveland in recent weeks. Minnesota isn’t appreciably better than any of those teams, so I like the points. Jaguars +10
Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Defense is an afterthought for both of these teams, who rank 20th and 21st in points allowed per game. Both offenses rely heavily on the run, but the Titans have advantages at quarterback (yes, Ryan Tannehill is definitively better than Baker Mayfield) and run defense (17th to 20th). If Cleveland falls behind early, they’ll be in a world of trouble. Titans -5.5
New York Jets +8 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders looked really bad against the Falcons last week, but they should be actively offended by not giving double digits to the Jets. Adam Gase’s squad has finished within 8 points of their opponent in just three games all year. Their defense is ranked 27th, which means Las Vegas’s solid offense should have no problem stacking up points, and their offense is averaging 13.8 points per game. There is no reason the Raiders shouldn’t cover here. Raiders -8
Houston Texans +2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Houston has looked good in recent weeks, but the Colts are finally starting to get fully healthy again and really need this game to stay alive in the AFC playoff hunt. I’m scared of Deshaun Watson, but Indianapolis is the much better team and they’re giving less than a field goal. Throwing in the coaching advantage provided by Frank Reich going against Romeo Crennel, and we have a layup. Colts -2.5
Seattle Seahawks -10.5 vs. New York Giants
I really hate picking a double-digit favorite when they can’t play defense, and Seattle can’t play defense. The Giants are without their starting quarterback, but their starting quarterback is Daniel Jones; the dropoff from him to Colt McCoy isn’t as drastic as it might be for some other teams, and might lead to a more conservative gameplan and lower variance. Seattle is giving up 27.6 points per game this year, and averaging just 22.3 points per game in their last three outings. Unless they can jump back up to 35 points this week, the spread is just too big. Giants +10.5
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Kyler Murray seems to be either dealing with an injury or hitting some kind of regression, and Arizona really relies on him to produce successful red zone trips. The Rams need to bounce back from a loss to the Niners, but history is on their side; they’ve won their last six games against the Cards, and the closest was a 7-point victory last season. Sean McVay might just have Kliff Kingsbury’s number until further notice. Rams -3
Los Angeles Chargers EVEN vs. New England Patriots
I had the Chargers getting 5.5 points against Buffalo last week, and the Bills gave them every opportunity to cover. Fumbled snaps, a 4th-and-27 conversion, you name it. Anthony Lynn allowed the Chargers to produce one of the most puzzling final minute stretches of an NFL game I’ve ever seen, and he’s coaching against Bill Belichick this week. I can’t imagine a world where the Chargers overcome their own history and such a large coaching disadvantage to win this game. Patriots to win
Green Bay Packers -9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay is at home against an NFC East team, and this is NOT one of the double digit spreads this week. The Eagles have been considering Jalen Hurts at quarterback, but seem very hesitant to actually commit to the idea. The Eagles’ 20th-ranked pass defense isn’t going to get the job done against Aaron Rodgers, and Philadelphia’s 30th-ranked offense isn’t going to get any job done against anyone. Packers -9
Kansas City Chiefs -14 vs. Denver Broncos
Patrick Mahomes remains the league’s MVP, and the Broncos can’t follow COVID guidelines well enough to avoid a quarterback calamity. Having Drew Lock back will certainly help their offense, but not enough to stay within two touchdowns of Kansas City for the first time since 2018. Chiefs -14
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Pittsburgh’s defense is too good to allow Antonio Gibson to run wild like Dallas did, which means Alex Smith will be forced into a lot of uncomfortable situations. Even on a short week, the Steelers shouldn’t have any trouble stomping a clearly inferior team at home and moving to 12-0. Steelers -10.5
San Francisco 49ers +2 vs. Buffalo Bills
I believe this game will be played in Arizona because of Santa Clara County guidelines, which is just one weird aspect of a very weird matchup. San Francisco has five wins; two against the New York teams, two against the otherwise 7-2 Rams, and a blowout win in New England. Buffalo is the Hail Murray away from a five-game winning streak, but they haven’t impressed on the road all year and their performance against the Chargers was hardly inspiring. I think the return of some of San Francisco’s best weapons is enough to keep this game competitive, and if Buffalo is looking ahead to their game against Pittsburgh next week, they might slip up here. 49ers +2
Baltimore Ravens TBD vs. Dallas Cowboys
This could be the sixth game of the week with a double-digit spread, depending on who passes COVID protocol for the Ravens. TBD
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Bengals-Dolphins UNDER 42.5
Colts-Texans UNDER 51
Jaguars-Vikings UNDER 51
Bills-49ers OVER 47
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
