2020 NFL Picks Week 14: Statement Games
Our Baltimore -8 pick came through on Tuesday night, giving us our second-best single week of the season. We also hit a reduced version of our four-team over/under parlay, with the Colts-Texans pushing on the fourth leg and reducing the payout from 12:1 to 6:!. Combined with our win in Week 9, the over/under parlay is in the green for the season, so we’ll be continuing it going forward. And we’ll need it, because I don’t feel nearly as good about this week’s slate as I did last week. Let’s eat that frog!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 vs. New England Patriots
My pick here was based on how well the Patriots and Dolphins had slowed down Sean McVay’s Rams in the past, and with the Rams unlikely to score more than 21 points I thought 5.5 was going to be enough. The Pats’ D held up their end of the bargain, but 146 passing yards and a pick-six from Cam Newton really buried us. The Rams might be for real as long as they aren’t playing the 49ers. Patriots +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee should have no problem winning this game, but covering more than a touchdown really hasn’t been their thing this season. They have eight wins this season, and only two have come by more than 7 points. Jacksonville certainly isn’t a dangerous opponent, but they’ve averaged 23.5 points per game in their last four non-Steelers games. Tennessee’s defense just isn’t strong enough to help them blow out inferior opponents. Jaguars +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Bengals needed a special teams touchdown to break 10 points in their game against the Giants, which they followed up with a 7-point outing against Miami. The Bengals were bad all season, but without Joe Burrow they’re utterly listless. I’m not excited to be taking Dallas as road favorites, but they have managed to routinely score more than ten points since getting Andy Dalton back. Cincinnati doesn’t have enough anything to keep their games close. Cowboys -3.5
Miami Dolphins +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Dolphins have been extremely impressive on defense, but no one is going to shut Kansas City down. They’ll easily drop 21+ points every game, and only weird non-reviews and ill-timed penalties can keep them below 30. Miami hasn’t demonstrated the kind of offensive competence they’ll need to keep pace in this game (17.3 ppg in their last three games), and with the Chiefs now eyeballing the number 1 seed, I think they’ll be looking to make a mark this week. Chiefs -7
Chicago Bears EVEN vs. Houston Texans
An even line between one team with an interim coach and another with a lame duck coach. Neither team is inspiring, but the Texans have been competitive in recent games (3-2 over their last five) while the Bears haven’t won since October. I’ll take the team with a playmaking quarterback instead of the team with two duds lining up behind center. Texans to win
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been dealing with a lot of weirdness over the past few weeks, but none of it has been good. Even in games not started by a part-time college quarterback, Denver is 2-4 in their last six games with a point differential of -57. Now they’re on the road against a Carolina team with a competent offense and an aggressive coach. With Teddy Bridgewater back and a bye week for gameplanning, I like the Panthers at home. Panthers -3
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I understand the excitement over the New York Giants with the way they’ve played in the past four weeks, but they’re still the Giants. Their win streak has come against Washington, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and the suddenly-struggling Seahawks. They’ve averaging under 22 points per game in that stretch, and if Daniel Jones is back this week he’ll be playing on a bum hamstring. Arizona has been on a skid, but they’re a better team and should win by at least a field goal. Cardinals -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Another big chance for a statement win here, with the Buccaneers coming off a bye week to play a 6-6 Vikings team at home. Minnesota is 5-1 in their last six games, but their last three wins have come by a combined 10 points against the Bears, Panthers, and Jaguars. Tampa Bay will pose a much bigger threat on the offensive side of the ball, and their defense will be looking to get back on track after facing two strong offenses in the Rams and Chiefs. This is where the Bucs will make their move to solidify a playoff spot. Buccaneers -6.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I don’t want to overreact to the Raiders’ near-loss to the still-winless Jets last week, but they really should have lost to the Jets last week! Indianapolis has been difficult to pick week-to-week, but they need a win here to keep pace with the Titans in the AFC South. I don’t know how much Philip Rivers has left in him, but he should be able to make some good things happen against the Raiders’ 24th-ranked defense. With the Colts’ defense getting back to full strength, they’ll have enough to get the win. Colts -3
Seattle Seahawks -13.5 vs. New York Jets
I actually went back and forth on this game because of how large the spread is and how poorly Seattle has been playing lately. There is a distinct possibility that Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer continue ordering mediocre takeout from their 14th-ranked run game rather than Letting Russ Cook, but it will only take a couple of drives against the Jets’ 32nd-ranked pass defense to make a mark. New York won’t find the same success running the ball against Seattle as they did Las Vegas, and the winless streak will continue. Seahawks -13.5
Detroit Lions +8 vs. Green Bay Packers
Have you ever had a bad coach? Not just a mediocre strategist or motivator, but someone who combined a demeaning attitude with poor decision-making and a refusal to take accountability? The Lions just escaped that situation, and immediately tied their season-high in points scored against Chicago’s 8th-ranked defense. The Packers aren’t nearly as stingy on that side of the ball, and they’ve been cruising a bit too comfortably against bad teams for the past few weeks. I don’t think Green Bay will lose, but I think they’ll find more of a fight than they’re expecting. Lions +8
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The 4-8 Falcons have lost twice in the last three weeks to Taysom Hill. The Chargers definitely don’t pose as much of a challenge as the Saints on defense, but Justin Herbert is going to be airing it out in a way Derek Carr and Taysom Hill certainly do not. I’m not sure why a 4-8 team is favored on the road here, and the Chargers can’t break their fans’ hearts if they lose by a lot. Chargers +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Eagles are moving to Jalen Hurts this week, but Jalen Hurts is definitely not the answer to the Eagles' woes. They might cover this spread if Taysom Hill finally plays like an out-of-position fullback, but the New Orleans defense has been on a roll. I have far less faith in Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz to come up with the scheme they need than Sean Payton. Saints -7
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Washington Football Team
I went back and forth on this pick a couple of times, but my decision was finally made when I looked back at the success Kyle Shanahan had against Ron Rivera when he was a coordinator in Atlanta going against the Panthers. The Niners ran into a buzzsaw in Josh Allen last week, but Alex Smith doesn’t present the same kind of problems for a defense. This should be a low scoring game, but Shanahan will draw up enough big plays to get a San Francisco win at home in Arizona. 49ers -3
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were never as good as their undefeated record suggested, and injury luck has started to catch up with them. Even a minor injury can throw off an elite defensive unit (trust me, I’m a Bears fan), and Pittsburgh is going into this game without Bud Dupree, Joe Haden, and Robert Spillane. Buffalo has been on a roll, and their 16th-ranked defense should be enough to limit a creaky Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s non-existent run game. Bills -2.5
Cleveland Browns +1.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I’m not ready to pick the Browns against a well-rounded team until they beat one, and no, the Titans and their 28th-ranked defense do not count. Ravens -1.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Titans-Jaguars OVER 52.5
Chiefs-Dolphins UNDER 50.5
Ravens-Browns OVER 47
Falcons-Chargers OVER 49
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
