2020 NFL Picks Week 15: Mahomes-Brees with #1 Seed Implications
With Lamar Jackson’s miraculous return to the field, we managed a second consecutive winning week as the regular season finish line approaches. There are only three weeks of full slates left; the NFL season feels long, but things change quickly. This week, none of the four NFC East teams are favored, but none of them are getting as much as a touchdown either, which would have seemed crazy a couple weeks ago. Let’s see who we can count on with playoff spots and draft slots on the line.
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This pick wobbled between -3 and -3.5 throughout the week, and I liked the Raiders at 3 but the Chargers at 3.5. I landed on the Raiders because I couldn’t bring myself to count on the Chargers after watching them crumble spectacularly in the final minute of their game against Buffalo and again in the final minute of the first half against the Falcons last week. This one really could have gone either way, but missing on the outcome wasn’t nearly as painful as having Derek Carr in my starting lineup for the fantasy football playoffs. Whoooops. Raiders -3
Denver Broncos +7 vs. Buffalo Bills
Denver has looked feisty in the past couple of weeks with a close loss to the Chiefs and a road win over the Panthers. The Bills have been on a different level, though; their only loss since Week 6 came in Arizona on the Hail Murray, and they’ve won their other six games by more than 8 points per game. Buffalo is rounding into shape at exactly the right time, and the 28th-ranked Broncos aren’t up to the challenge. Bills -7
Green Bay Packers -8.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I’m tempted to copy-paste and find-replace my segment from the Packers-Lions battle last week. Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball and scoring points, but the extremely deliberate style Green Bay uses under Matt LaFleur makes blowouts hard to come by against competent offensive teams. Carolina’s offense is 9th in DVOA this year, and they should be able to stack up some points as well. I’d take the Packers at 7, but this is a little too high. Panthers +8.5
Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. New England Patriots
The only explanation for this line is the history of Bill Belichick going against rookie QBs. The 8-5 Dolphins are ranked 11th in DVOA, hosting the 6-7, 20th-ranked Patriots. New England’s offense is averaging just 21.3 points per game this season, and Miami’s 3rd-ranked Special Teams unit probably won’t give up as many free points as the Chargers did a few weeks ago. It’s going to be low scoring, but giving less than a field goal feels okay. Dolphins -2.5
Dallas Cowboys +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
No one SHOULD care about this game, but the 4-9 Cowboys are still in the running for the NFC East, especially with Alex Smith and Antonio Gibson banged up for the Football Team this week. San Francisco has burned us the past couple of weeks, failing to cover against the Bills and then getting trounced by Washington after losing Deebo Samuel on the very first play. The Cowboys are a much different football team than the Football Team, though. Their offenses are comparable (29th for Washington, 23rd for Dallas), but the Football Team boasts the league’s 4th-best defense. The Cowboys are down at 25th, which doesn’t bode well going against Kyle Shanahan. I think the Niners will move the ball pretty freely against the worst defense they’ve faced in a few weeks, and their middling defense won’t have too much trouble against Mike McCarthy and Andy Dalton. 49ers -3
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Chicago Bears
I know it’s crazy, but the TruBearskys are a bad matchup for the Vikings. Minnesota beat Nick Foles by 6 earlier this season to get their first win in the rivalry since 2017. I think Trubisky gives Chicago just enough variance to reach 20 points against the Vikings’ 12th-ranked defense, and Minnesota has averaged under 15 points per game against the Bears since they acquired Khalil Mack. I love getting the extra half point here. Bears +3.5
Indianapolis Colts -7.5 vs. Houston Texans
After last week’s win over the Raiders, Indianapolis is ranked 6th in defensive DVOA. Their results don’t feel as dominant as their ranking would suggest, as they’ve only held one team under 20 points since Week 5. They should absolutely win this game by more than a touchdown, but I just don’t feel comfortable laying 7.5 with Philip Rivers lofting out routes to convert third downs. The Texans looked terrible last week, but Deshaun Watson should at least be able to replicate his effort from their 26-20 loss to the Colts just two weeks ago. Texans +7.5
Baltimore Ravens -13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville got steamrolled by the Titans last week, and they’re playing a similar team in the Ravens this week. Lamar Jackson should have no trouble breaking big plays against the Jaguars’ defense, and even a stumbling Baltimore defense is good enough to contain a Jags’ offense averaging just 20.1 points per game. I think we’ll end up somewhere around 30-13. Ravens -13
Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why won’t people give up on the Falcons? We’d all like to see more from the Tampa Bay offense with the weapons they have, but their defense is certainly good enough to harass a Falcons’ offense that has only reached 20 points once in their past four games. The Buccaneers are running out of time to look like a true contender for the first time since their blowout win over the Packers, but Tom Brady has rarely struggled to put away mediocre teams. Buccaneers -4
Washington Football Team +5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
This line should move a lot if Dwayne Haskins is going to start over Alex Smith, but I haven’t heard a lot of chatter about it. I’m picking this game with Alex Smith under center, and I think it’s a really bad matchup for Seattle. Not only has Russell Wilson struggled against teams with strong defenses this season (17 ppg against the Giants, Eagles, and Rams recently), but Ron Rivera has a strong track record in limiting what the Seahawks do. The Panthers and Seahawks had a nice string of games in the teens back when both had strong defenses, and the Football Team now has as much talent on the defensive side of the ball as any of the units Rivera coached in Carolina. The Seahawks should win, but it won’t be pretty. Football Team +5.5
Tennessee Titans TBD vs. Detroit Lions
Still waiting on the line here, with a big gap between Matthew Stafford and Chase Daniel. TBD
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles scored a surprising victory over the Saints last week, but New Orleans was rolling Taysom Hill out for his fourth career start. They got a few lucky bounces at home and barely held on for the win. The Cardinals are operating a fully functional offense, and their defense has looked good against some of the less dynamic teams they’ve played this year. Jalen Hurts is definitely different than Carson Wentz, but I don’t know if he’s going to start 2-0. Cardinals -5.5
Los Angeles Rams -17 vs. New York Jets
The Jets need to lose out to keep the top pick in next year’s draft, and the Rams are rolling. The lesser New York team has already lost 7 games by 17 or more points, and the greater Los Angeles team is certainly good enough to deal them an 8th. Rams -17
New Orleans Saints +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I picked this line expecting Taysom Hill to get the start for New Orleans, but it looks like Drew Brees is going to give it a go with whatever ribs he has left. I’m still not sure it’s going to be enough to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, though, especially with Michael Thomas out. There’s no better checkdown connection than Brees-to-Kamara, but New Orleans is going to have to take the top off at some point to come out ahead. I’m not sure if they can still do that. Chiefs -4
New York Giants +4.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I initially thought this line seemed a little high for a decent team going against Cleveland, but my mind soon flooded with visions of Myles Garrett harassing Daniel Jones into fumble after fumble and it started to make more sense. Cleveland can run the ball against anyone (they’re basically the anti-Seahawks on offense), and I can’t count on the Giants to put up enough points to overcome their mistakes. Browns -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Usually Pittsburgh blows out Cincinnati at home and wins tight games on the road. This version of the Bengals doesn’t have anything to offer with Joe Burrow out, and they’ll be lucky to reach 10 points. Pittsburgh can reach 24…right? Steelers -13
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Chargers-Raiders OVER 54.5
Panthers-Packers OVER 51
Texans-Colts UNDER 52.5
Eagles-Cardinals UNDER 48.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
