2020 NFL Picks Week 16: Christmas with the (Old) Cranks
Another winning week, another loss by the Steelers and another strange failure by the Kansas City Chiefs to hold on to a cover. The Chiefs haven’t covered a spread since their Week 8 win over the Jets, but they’re also 13-1. The Seahawks haven’t scored 30 points against a non-Jets opponent since their Week 9 loss to the Bills. The Jets themselves just beat the Rams! It would take a miracle to pick the right teams to trust in Week 16, but in the words of Hans Gruber, “It’s Christmas, Theo – it’s the time of miracles.”
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota made this matchup ugly enough to win in the Wild Card round last year, but the 2020 Vikings are much different than 2019’s version. Minnesota currently ranks 13th in DVOA, 12th against the pass and 20th against the run; last season they finished 4th overall. Drew Brees didn’t look great last week, but he should be improving as his ribs feel better, and the Saints defense is scary. Their 2nd-ranked run defense should be able to bottle up Dalvin Cook, and I don’t trust Kirk Cousins enough to cover just a touchdown on the road against an elite defense. Saints -7
Detroit Lions +7.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Lions are in a dark place, with an insistence on running the ball with Adrian Peterson and a defense incapable of slowing anyone down. The Buccaneers just aren’t the elite team we thought they might be when they pummeled Green Bay back in Week 6, but they can pour on points and their defense still ranks a solid 7th overall. The Lions should just be looking forward to next season at this point, and it will show in this game. Buccaneers -7.5
Arizona Cardinals -4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I think we’re reached the point where the Niners are too banged up to keep up with good teams. Their defense couldn’t slow down the Andy Dalton version of the Cowboys last week, and Nick Mullens might have even less pocket awareness than Carson Wentz. The Cardinals’ offense is looking good again, averaging 29 points per game against top-20 defenses in the last three weeks. If they don’t have much trouble moving the ball, Haason Reddick and Budda Baker will come up with some big defensive plays to turn this game into a rout. Cardinals -4
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
Most of the statistics suggest Miami should be favored by more here, but there’s something about this matchup I just don’t like. Tua Tagovailoa has looked good for a rookie this season, but he’s still a rookie, and the Raiders’ offense is competent. I think Jon Gruden will be looking forward to scheming against Brian Flores, and Las Vegas should be able to top 20 points. I don’t see the Dolphins getting to 30 on the road, so I like getting the points here. Raiders +3
Houston Texans -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Seeing Cincinnati beat a playoff team like Pittsburgh was certainly shocking, but Houston has a competent offense and a young, top-tier quarterback. They’re going to give up a lot more points in this game, and putting that kind of pressure on Ryan Finley is a recipe for disaster. Texans -7
Kansas City Chiefs -11 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’m late to the party, but I have to stop expecting the Chiefs to cover large spreads. Their defense and run game just aren’t good enough to put teams down and away for good. Their last five games have come against the Raiders, Buccaneers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Saints; they’re 0-5 against the spread in those games, and they’ve only been favored by more than a touchdown once. If Vegas works the way it usually does, this is the exact wrong time to jump off the train, but I would have said the same last week and the Chiefs failed to cover a Taysom Hill line against Drew Brees. I don’t like a lot about the Falcons, but I think they can cover a double-digit spread. Falcons +11
New York Jets +9.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
We thought no spread was large enough for the Jets, and they went and won outright as 17-point underdogs. I don’t think they’ve really put things together, but they’ve been oddly competitive at times in the past few weeks. The Browns definitely don’t have the kind of defense I trust to blow out anyone, even if their offense is firing on all cylinders. They’ve scored 30+ points 7 times this year, and only won by more than 10 in those games twice. Cleveland should win and somehow keep pressure on the Steelers for the AFC North title, but I don’t think they’ll cover. Jets +9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
These teams are certainly trending in opposite directions, but I’m not sure it’s enough to justify Pittsburgh as a home underdog. The Colts’ defense is good, but not spectacular, while the Steelers’ defense has fallen from spectacular to great with the injuries they’ve suffered. There isn’t much to like about the Pittsburgh offense, but if they can cut down on their drops for just one game, I like their chances more than Philip Rivers going against a top-tier defense in the cold. Steelers +1.5
Baltimore Ravens -10.5 vs. New York Giants
The Giants have been disappointing since their big win over the Seahawks, but this line seems a little too big for our tastes. New York is good enough on defense to slow the Ravens down a little bit, so we just need to avoid turnovers in order to cover. Baltimore should definitely win, but I think the Giants are disciplined and well-coached enough to keep things from getting out of hand. Giants +10.5
Washington Football Team TBD vs. Carolina Panthers
Presumably we’re waiting to see if Alex Smith is going to play before this line is posted. TBD
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Chicago Bears
This one is tough, because I don’t think Mitch Trubisky should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone, but the Jaguars also have zero long-term incentive to win now that they’re in the driver’s seat for Trevor Lawrence. Chicago’s defense has been quietly meh since their Week 11 bye, giving up 7 points to the Texans but 34 points per game to the Vikings, Lions, and Packers in the other three games. In situations like this, it’s important to take your emotions out of the equation; unfortunately, I know the Bears will disappoint me by getting another big win on their way to either a hopeless playoff berth or a worse draft pick. Bears -7.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver has the best single unit in this matchup, with their 16th-ranked defense coming in just ahead of the Chargers’ 19th-ranked offense. The Broncos have been abysmal on offense this season, even excluding their game with Kendall Hinton under center, but I’m not sure it’s as bad as the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked special teams. With Los Angeles, I’m getting Justin Herbert, an extremely fun rookie quarterback with a 5-9 record. With Denver, I’m getting edges on Defense, Special Teams, and three points. Let’s go Broncos! Broncos +3
Dallas Cowboys +1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I think this line makes sense with the full season taken into account, but Jalen Hurts looks to have given the Eagles a real boost, even if it’s just by not getting sacked every third play. I was not impressed by Dallas’ win over the Niners, and Philadelphia’s 15th-ranked defense should be the biggest difference-maker in this game. Plus, an Eagles win keeps the dream of a 6-9-1 NFC East Champion alive! Eagles -1
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
No one likes to hear about fantasy leagues they aren’t in, but quick aside: I was in the semi-final last week against the top team in our league, and Russell Wilson has been my starting quarterback all season long. I made the decision to bench him in favor of streaming Derek Carr. It didn’t work out well, but only because Carr was injured immediately; Russ went on to put up 121 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Washington defense. Back in Week 10, he managed 248 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against the Rams. I think he’ll fare a little better this time around, but I’m not confident enough to pick them as the favorites. Jared Goff and co. should be able to bounce back from their embarrassing loss last week and put up a real fight against Seattle’s 20th-ranked defense. Rams +2.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is not the type of team Green Bay has fared well against this season; a strong running game has been trouble for the Packers’ 21st-ranked run defense. Derrick Henry should have no trouble running into the second and third levels of the Green Bay defense all night long, but he’ll need the Tennessee defense to do their part and make a running script possible. The Titans’ defense is currently ranked 28th, and they have the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league. Matt LaFleur can do a lot to minimize the positive impacts of Aaron Rodgers, but giving him all day to throw is a recipe for failure. I think the Packers cover at home. Packers -3.5
New England Patriots +6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots deserve plenty of respect for what they’ve accomplished over the past two decades, but Buffalo looks like the top challenger to Kansas City at this point of the season. Their offense is rolling behind the truly miraculous development of Josh Allen, and their defense has really found its footing since their Week 11 bye, allowing 18.75 points per game in four double-digit wins. The Patriots haven’t been able to move the ball at all this year, as their 24th-ranked offense suggests. If the Bills need one big win over their longtime divisional nemesis to prove they’re for real, this is their shot. Bills -6.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Vikings-Saints UNDER 52
Browns-Jets OVER 44
Falcons-Chiefs OVER 53.5
Titans-Packers OVER 56
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
