2020 NFL Picks Week 17: Last-Ditch Efforts
Four straight winning weeks, and we’re only four games under .500 heading into the dreaded Week 17. The Washington Football Team will have either an injured Alex Smith or someone named Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Oh, and if they win, they’ll be the NFC East champions. The Rams and Cardinals are facing off in a game with massive playoff implications, but maybe neither starting quarterback after Kyler Murray and Jared Goff both sustained injuries last week. Oh, and COVID is still very much a thing, making teams like the Browns scramble to field a full team. This should go well!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta hasn’t lost a game by seven points since their first loss to the Taysom Hill Saints in Week 11, and they lost by just four points to this Tampa Bay team two weeks ago. I’m told the Buccaneers have clinched a playoff berth and can’t take the NFC South title away from the Saints, and with so many other games undecided, it’s difficult to say exactly what they’ll be playing for. Even if Tom Brady just decides the team needs a complete performance before heading into the playoffs, it will be enough for the vastly superior team to cover a touchdown here. Buccaneers -6.5
Cleveland Browns -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This line has since jumped with the Steelers announcing Mason Rudolph will be starting, but a growing list of positive COVID tests in the Cleveland facilities should have some kind of impact in the opposite direction. Pittsburgh doesn’t have much to play for, and the Browns need a win to stay in the playoff picture, but they also just lost to the Jets. If they get off to a slow start against a great Pittsburgh defense, Cleveland fans are in for another heartbreak in a long string of them. Steelers +6.5
Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The biggest motivation for the Bills is securing the 2nd seed and avoiding the Chiefs in the playoffs for as long as possible. That isn’t a lot, but they’re also rolling along as well as any team in the league right now and may not want to lose their edge. The Dolphins need a win to stay in the hunt, but they’ve struggled mightily to score points in recent weeks against bad defenses. If Tua can’t stretch the field, I’m not counting on more Fitzmagic bailing Miami out for a second straight week. Bills -4.5
Detroit Lions +6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs, and Matt Stafford is nursing a laundry list of injuries. I would usually say this line looks too high, but since Detroit’s comeback victory over the Bears, they’re 0-3 with a point differential of -68. They might have their coaches back this week, but if it’s Chase Daniel handing off to Adrian Peterson, Minnesota should extend their streak of six straight wins by at least seven points in the series. Vikings -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals +11 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, and they’ve won eight games this season by more than 11 points. Baltimore has no problem blowing out bad teams, and the Bengals are a bad team even after wins over Pittsburgh and Houston. Don’t overthink this one. Ravens -11
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have won their last seven games against the Giants, and only two of those games were won by less than seven points. The teams are considerably different this time around, though, with Andy Dalton starting for Dallas and a new coaching staff in place in New York. Dallas has won three straight games, scoring at least 30 points in each contest, while the Giants have lost three straight and maxed out at 13 points. The recent results mask just how similar these teams are from a season-long perspective, so I’m happy taking the home team and the points. Giants +2.5
New England Patriots -3 vs. New York Jets
It’s been a bad year for the Patriots, but are they really going to lose to the Jets and give their longtime division “rival” a third consecutive win? Sam Darnold’s highest passing total was 230 yards in a 9-point loss to the Broncos. Frank Gore has received 187 carries despite averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt. There’s no way Adam Gase’s tenure with the Jets ends with a win over New England. Patriots -3
Houston Texans +7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I don’t have a lot to go on here, and it seems like a mismatch in every way. The Titans need a win, the Texans are playing for literally nothing; a win doesn’t help them in any way, but unlike most terrible teams, a loss doesn’t help their draft position because their pick belongs to the Dolphins. Tennessee’s weakness is their defense, but at 29th in the league they’re actually one spot ahead of Houston there. There’s just something I like about Deshaun Watson getting a little more than a touchdown, at home, with a chance to play spoiler for a division rival. This will age badly when Derrick Henry crosses the 400-yard marker late in the third quarter. Texans +7.5
Indianapolis Colts -14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Fourteen points feels like a lot, but Indianapolis needs this game and Jacksonville is coasting into an offseason with visions of Trevor Lawrence’s glorious locks in their minds. The Jags’ 31st-ranked defense eases any concerns I have about bad Philip Rivers’ interceptions, and the quarterback-and-forth game between Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon seems like a bad approach against the Colts’ 8th-ranked defense. Or, maybe Indianapolis misses the playoffs by giving Jacksonville their only two wins of the season. Colts -14
Denver Broncos -1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Picking Denver games either way is a chore, and this week is no exception. The Raiders have no defense to threaten Drew Lock with, but he’s plenty capable of threatening himself. Denver’s defense has looked pretty good, but also gave up 37 points to Las Vegas back in Week 10. I think the Raiders are a slightly better team, and I like getting a point. Raiders +1
Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
This one depends heavily on which versions of which quarterbacks line up for each team. Are we going to see Kyler Murray versus Jared Goff? Gimpy Murray versus dislocated-thumb Goff? Uhhh…Chris Streveler versus John Wolford? I’m very nervous about Kyler being listed with a lower leg injury, because Arizona’s offense looks inept in the red zone unless he can scramble and make something happen. Los Angeles’s defense is good enough to make things difficult anyway, and the Sean McVay Rams haven’t lost to the Cardinals since…ever. Oh no…am I going to have to watch Mitch Trubisky in the playoffs again?! Rams +3
Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans still has a shot at the #1 seed in the NFC, and it could mean more to them than any other team in the running. Carolina has hung tough with a lot of teams, but the Saints will be throwing everything they have, including their 3rd-ranked defense at them this week. I think New Orleans can cover a touchdown. Saints -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I was a little surprised to see this line so low when it was finally posted; the Chargers have a competent offense, and Kansas City’s defense is suspect even when the game is on the line. The Chiefs have nothing to play for here, so the Chargers should win by more than a field goal without much trouble. Chargers -3.5
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over the Titans, with the #1 seed in the NFC on the line, going against a Chicago Bears team they beat by 16 points just four weeks ago. They’re favored by less than a touchdown. Does Vegas know something I don’t? Chicago hasn’t stayed within six points of Green Bay since 2018. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Packers -6
San Francisco 49ers +4.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
My inability to pick the Niners continues, and I’m sure we’ll run into the same problem this week. The Niners have nothing to play for, but that was the case last week before they dealt a severe blow to the Cardinals’ playoff hopes. I think Seattle’s offense matches up well with San Francisco’s defense, though, and Russ should find plenty of chances to hit DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett down the field. If they can force Nick Mullens or CJ Beathard to air it out, their new-and-improved defense has a chance to feast. Seahawks -4.5
Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs. Washington Football Team
Washington has a fantastic defense, and they should be able to limit Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense to 20 points or less. If Alex Smith can gut it out and occasionally move the chains, the Football Team can definitely get to 21 points. If it’s Heinicke…well, hopefully Chase Young can score another touchdown in that case. Football Team -1
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Jets-Patriots OVER 40
Dolphins-Bills OVER 47.5
Raiders-Broncos UNDER 50.5
Seahawks-49ers OVER 46
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
