2020 NFL Picks Week 18: Wild Card Weekend
What a finish! The Browns secured their first playoff berth since 2002, the Titans squeaked past Deshaun Watson and the Texans (so pretty much just Deshaun Watson) to keep the AFC South title, and we went 13-2-1 to finish the regular season over .500 for the first time in site history! Of course, real winners are made in the playoffs, so we’ll be looking to finish strong with just 13 picks to go. Welcome to the NFL’s first-ever Super Wild Card Weekend!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have had a very fun season, and 11-5 is nothing to sneeze at, but they’re stuck playing the hottest team in football here in the first round. Since their Week 11 bye, Buffalo has won six straight games by 10+ points, including blowouts over top-15 defenses like the Steelers (1st), Broncos (13th), 49ers (6th), and Dolphins (11th). Indianapolis’ 7th-ranked squad might slow things down early in the game, but they won’t be able to stop Buffalo’s 5th-ranked offense all day. If the Bills get to 30 points, should we feel good about Philip Rivers trying to keep pace? I think the Colts just wound up with a bad draw here in the first week of the postseason. Bills -7
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This game has a lot of nap potential; the over-under is set at 42, and neither team has scored 30 points since Week 13 when the Seahawks played the Jets. Seattle should have a significant advantage here with Rams’ backup John Wolford competing against an injured Jared Goff for the playoff start. These teams played just two weeks ago, and I don’t expect a drastically different result than the 20-9 victory Seattle managed then. Seahawks -4.5
Washington Football Team +8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington presents Tampa Bay with a bad matchup in a lot of ways, starting with their dominant defensive line. Tom Brady struggles the most (it’s a relative term) against a front four generating pressure without the help of a blitz, and Bruce Arians’ offenses tend to look for deep shots, which could give Chase Young opportunities for big plays. Unfortunately for the Football Team, the other side of the matchup doesn’t present as much intrigue. Tampa Bay finished with the 5th-ranked defense, and while the Alex Smith version of the Washington offense is the best version available, it was barely enough to beat Philadelphia when the Eagles were trying to lose. The Football Team hasn’t scored more than 23 points since they beat up on Dallas around Thanksgiving, and there’s no way the Bucs finish this game under 30 with Tom Brady and the weapons he has. Buccaneers -8.5
Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore must be coming into this game hoping the third time really is the charm; they’ve lost only eight games since the start of last season, and two of those games have come against the Titans, including last year’s shocking playoff loss. I think Tennessee happens to match up really well against the Ravens, with a defense content to take away big plays and a very patient running attack led by Derrick Henry. Baltimore has won five straight coming into this game, but the best team they played over that stretch is the Browns, and they only won by 5 points. They’ll need to get off to a hot start to win this one and force the Titans into a pass-heavy script if they want to avenge last season’s loss; I think it’s more likely Tennessee hangs around until Derrick Henry can start running through arm tackles like he did in the late stages of their Week 11 matchup. Titans +3.5
New Orleans Saints -9.5 vs. Chicago Bears
If I was looking at just talent and coaching, I think I’d feel pretty good about taking the Saints -10, but I just can’t get over how I’ve been burned by them in the playoffs the past few years. In 2019, favored by 8 points on Wild Card Weekend, the Saints lost outright to the Vikings. In 2018, they were favored by 7.5 in the Divisional round but beat the Eagles by just 6 and then lost outright to the Rams when favored by 3.5. In 2017, they squeaked past the Panthers by 5 before losing to the Case Keenum Vikings. Their defense is good enough that they should absolutely win this game, but I think Chicago’s defense struggles more against big play teams like the Packers and Lions than the short passing game of the Saints. Throw in a few plays where Sean Payton gets cute and forces the ball into Taysom Hill’s hands, and you have an unnecessary nail-biter for New Orleans’ fans. Bears +10
Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I was lucky enough to get this line before news broke of Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski and Joel Bitonio (among others) being ruled out as part of COVID protocol. The line has since moved to 6.5, which I feel less comfortable with, but let’s take a look at Pittsburgh’s advantages here. Their defense has played well against Cleveland this year, giving up 7 points in their first meeting and just 24 last week despite starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback. The Steelers’ offense has been underwhelming, but Cleveland’s defense ranked 25th for the season. Cleveland could absolutely stay close in this game if their run game is able to control the clock and Nick Chubb can break off a couple of huge plays, but at some point they’re going to need Baker Mayfield to make difficult plays against the league’s top-ranked defense. I think it’s more likely he throws the ball into the chest of a lurking linebacker. Steelers -4.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Colts-Bills UNDER 52
Buccaneers-Football Team UNDER 45.5
Ravens-Titans UNDER 55
Browns-Steelers OVER 46.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
