2020 NFL Picks Week 7: How Real are the Titans?
We’re back on the right side of the ledger with a strong 8-6 performance in Week 6, but the lines this week are already making me uneasy. There are extra half points where I really wish there weren’t (Saints-Panthers and Chargers-Jaguars stand out) and COVID concerns for teams like the Raiders to consider, so we’ll be hoping for a bit of luck to help our usual analysis out. Let’s see what Week 7 has in store beyond two NFC East showdowns!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs. New York Giants
The slightly less infuriating Thursday Night matchup saw Philadelphia nearly lose to the Giants, giving up an 80-yard not-touchdown run to Daniel Jones in the process. Doug Pederson, just a few years removed from a coaching masterpiece in a Super Bowl, seems to believe Carson Wentz is actually a young Cam Newton and is calling goal line option plays. I didn’t think this line made sense because it was too low; nothing makes sense about the NFC East in 2020. Eagles -3.5
Tennessee Titans -1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick at least ten times since I first saw it, and I’m still not feeling great. The Titans sometimes look as unstoppable as, well, their running back/locomotive hybrid Derrick Henry, but also nearly lost to Denver and Jacksonville to start the season. Pittsburgh has a terrifying defense, but also gave up 29 points to the same Eagles team who couldn’t get past 22 against the Giants. I like the matchup of Pittsburgh’s offense against Tennessee’s defense enough to give them a slight edge, and Taylor Lewan’s absence from the Titans’ offensive line scares me just a bit. Steelers +1
New Orleans Saints -7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I really don’t like the extra half-point here, but a lot of this game comes down to who we think each team really is. Are the Saints the Super Bowl contender we thought they were coming into the season, or are they feeling the effects of Drew Brees’s decline and relying on Alvin Kamara too heavily? Are the Panthers magically fielding a competent defense one year after allowing teams to run all over them, or are they just getting some luck against a middling schedule? I’m not ready to give up on New Orleans just yet, and they need an impressive performance here if they want to regain some of their status. Saints -7.5
Washington Football Team +1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas looked utterly incompetent against the Cardinals last week, and it doesn’t sound like things are going well in the locker room six weeks into Mike McCarthy’s tenure. The Cowboys will be at a coaching disadvantage heading into Washington this week, but talent matters a lot too. Even Andy Dalton should be able to get a win against the Football Team with the weapons he has around him. Cowboys -1
New York Jets +13 vs. Buffalo Bills
Until further notice, consider no line too large for the Jets. Bills -13
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
We saw these teams match up in Week 2, and the Bengals pulled off a nice backdoor cover with a late touchdown to cut the final deficit to 5 points. I think this game will end up looking very similar, and Cleveland’s pass rush will have much more success against Cincinnati than they did against Pittsburgh. Browns -3.5
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Detroit Lions
Neither team is expected to play any defense, but only one team has Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. It isn’t a lot to go on, but I don’t want to waste too much time thinking about the Lions or the Falcons. Falcons -3
Houston Texans +3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay looked severely outclassed after their first two drives in Tampa Bay last week, but Houston’s defense poses literally zero of the same challenges. Aaron Rodgers isn’t about to turn in two embarrassing performances in a row, so Houston’s only hope is enough Deshaun Watson magic to make things close at the end. Even with everything he’s capable of, the Texans have managed to cover a three-point spread just once this season. Packers -3
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kyler Murray should have no trouble scrambling against the defense Seattle is rolling out these days, so the outcome of this game comes down to how the Seahawks perform on offense. Do they explode like they did against Atlanta and Dallas, or do they take some time to find their footing like they did against the Vikings? Recent history suggests the latter, as they’ve averaged just 21.75 points per game against Arizona in their last four games. I think they’ll win because they have Russ, but it’s going to be close. Cardinals +3.5
New England Patriots -2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Two straight home losses and a 2-4 start for the Patriots? I think not. Patriots -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville threw us off the scent with their win over Indianapolis in Week 1 and a close loss to the Titans in Week 2, but they’ve lost their last four games by an average of 15 points per game. I really like what I’ve seen from Justin Herbert so far, and he should have no problem hitting a couple deep shots against Jacksonville’s leaky defense. If the Chargers’ defense shows up at all, this one will be a blowout. Chargers -7.5
Denver Broncos +9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Denver has shown some nice progress on defense, and they finally have Drew Lock back on the field. Unfortunately, they’re going against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid this week. There’s no way they’ll be able to keep pace. Chiefs -9
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay offense is still leaving a lot on the field; I would expect more explosiveness from a team with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Their defense hasn’t had any trouble, though, and they’ll be forcing Derek Carr into some very uncomfortable situations with their frequent blitzing. The Bucs are at risk of a letdown game after their big win last week, but I think they have what it takes to stomp on the Raiders. Buccaneers -3
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 vs. Chicago Bears
With the Chicago defense playing at such a high level, I can only expect a few elite offenses to put up 30+ points on them. The Rams have been good, but they still seem to get lost for strange stretches and wind up with 20 points against the Cowboys or 17 against the Giants. They can’t afford a similar slip with a spread this large, so we’re taking the points. Bears +5.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Cleveland-Cincinnati OVER 50.5
Dallas-Washington OVER 46
Pittsburgh-Tennessee OVER 50.5
Tampa Bay-Las Vegas UNDER 53
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
