2020 NFL Picks Week 8: Is It Time to Count Out the Pats?
Two bad beats in the early slate really killed us: Cleveland almost covered but missed the extra point to only win by 3, and the Falcons Falconsed their way to an outright loss in Detroit. But we’re still sitting at .500 with a very interesting set of lines this coming weekend. The Pats are (relatively) big underdogs, the Chiefs will probably be favored by at least 20 come kickoff, and the 2-4-1 Eagles are favored by double digits. None of that means it will be easy, but let’s see where the lines take us!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
New York Giants +11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Daniel Jones and the Giants stumbled and fell just short against the Eagles last week, which is remarkable only because the Eagles aren’t imposing in any way. Tampa Bay comes into this game ranked #1 in DVOA, and they’ll need to squash any lesser competition to remain ahead of the Saints in the NFC South. I expect Todd Bowles’ defense to get after Daniel Jones and force a lot of turnovers from someone who has never been shy about sharing. Buccaneers -11
Detroit Lions +2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Lions are starting to regain some of the shine they had coming into the season as a sleeper candidate, with a penchant for close games decided on final possessions. Such a trend makes it tempting to take them as home underdogs, but the Colts are coming off a bye and still rank 5th in DVOA. I’m very nervous to be picking Philip Rivers at this stage of his career, but less than a field goal seems little enough to ask. Colts -2.5
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not sure a last-second victory over the Bengals is a reason to believe in the Browns, but picking them here is betting on the Odell Beckham Jr. injury being addition by subtraction. I don’t think that’s the case, and the Raiders are similar to the Browns in many ways. I think their offense will come out on top in this game unless Myles Garrett can get the job done himself for Cleveland’s defense. Raiders +2.5
Miami Dolphins +4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Dolphins are making the right decision by starting Tua Tagovailoa if he’s truly healthy. He’s the future of the franchise, and getting him reps now is more important than chasing a playoff berth. That being said, he’s facing Aaron Donald in his first NFL start, and rookie’s universally struggle in their first start anyway. I don’t expect Sean McVay’s offense to struggle, so it will require some real heroics from Tua to keep this one close. Rams -4
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off a bye, but I can’t get the taste of their blowout loss to the Falcons out of my mouth. The Packers are much, much better than the Falcons. Packers -6.5
Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. New England Patriots
There isn’t much of a statistical case to be made here, so I’m counting more on Bill Belichick’s ability to force Josh Allen into an ungodly number of mistakes and a return to form for post-COVID Cam Newton at some point. I really hope it’s this week. Patriots +4.5
Kansas City Chiefs -19.5 vs. New York Jets
If the Bills had done a little better than 0-for-5 in the red zone last week, they would have covered 20 points. The Chiefs are a much better version of the Bills, so they should have no trouble at home. Chiefs -19.5
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a tough one, but the Pittsburgh defense has looked good enough to make a spread larger than 3 feel just big enough to take. Baltimore is going to bounce back strong with an extra week of rest for Lamar Jackson and gameplanning, but TJ Watt and co. won’t let anything come easy. Unless the Ravens can force multiple turnovers from Roethlisberger, I think this game comes down to the wire, and I like the extra half-point I’m getting. Steelers +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans cannot play defense. Joe Burrow has been free to throw the ball all over the yard in every game this season, and he should have plenty of opportunities to come up with a backdoor cover at worse in this game. Bengals +7
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
One of these teams has a promising young quarterback to pair with some strong defensive play, and it isn’t the one with Drew Lock. Chargers -3
Chicago Bears +5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are remarkably similar to the Rams so far this season; 7th in offense (5th), 10th in defense (11th), 6th overall (7th). The Bears can only compete with teams who have defenses leaky enough to let them reach 20 points, and I think New Orleans is rounding into shape at a bad time for such hopes. Saints -5
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan is still capable of drawing up some beautiful plays against every opponent, and Seattle hardly needs any help giving up big gains. Sure, Russell Wilson will be dropping dimes all over the Niners; he seems to do it every game, but they all end up close in the last two minutes. I like the points. 49ers +3
Philadelphia Eagles -11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
On one hand, it’s entirely possible no one in the Dallas locker room likes their new head coach and has no interest in gelling behind Andy Dalton or whoever they’re rolling out at QB if Dalton is unavailable. On the other, the Eagles have a -33 point differential and are supposed to cover more than 10 points. Cowboys +11
Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
My thought coming in was that Carolina should have no problem dropping 30 points on the Falcons and the usual Atlanta nonsense would lead to a Panthers victory. I don’t know what to make of either team going forward, so let’s hope the advanced stats can give us some insight next week! Panthers -1.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Cleveland-Las Vegas OVER 49.5
Dallas-Philadelphia OVER 43
Cincinnati-Tennessee OVER 51.5
New England-Buffalo OVER 41
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
