2021 NFL Picks Conference Championship Weekend: Riding the Hot(test) Hands
The Titans were close. Oh so close. But a bizarre Ryan Tannehill interception left Joe Burrow with just enough time to move into field goal range and win the game, barely preventing us from a perfect 4-0 week. Still, we’ve guaranteed the best full-season finish in the six year history of our picks, which is something to celebrate along with the most exciting divisional round in my lifetime. There are only three more games to pick, and you might as well break out the maple syrup with how much I’ve been waffling on these two. Let’s see what we can do and who’s going to the Super Bowl!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Patrick Mahomes has looked like his unstoppable self so far in these playoffs: 2 games, 782 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT, 98 rushing yards, 1 rush TD, and a neat 75.9% completion rate against the defenses ranked 14th and 1st in DVOA. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been putting all sorts of their fan base’s demons to rest in their playoff run, picking up a road win over the number 1 seed and advancing to within one game of the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988. Burrow has continued his impressive sophomore season with a nice playoff run of 592 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT and a 73.2% completion rate despite being sacked 11 times in two games. All week long I was leaning towards the Bengals getting a touchdown (and sometimes an extra half point). After all, they beat the Chiefs just four weeks before the kickoff of the rematch, and their biggest advantage in that game hasn’t gone anywhere; Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are three legitimate weapons to throw at a Kansas City defense without three legitimate cover corners. Despite being sacked four times in that game, Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and 4 TDs without a turnover. Even if Mahomes and the Chiefs keep their offense humming, picturing a Cincinnati comeback or backdoor cover in the final minutes of the game is easy to do. Then I started writing the intro to this week’s picks and thinking about the Chiefs over the past four seasons. Kansas City has played 10 playoff games since Mahomes took over as the starter, and they’ve won six of those by at least 7 points. Cincinnati comes into this game with the league’s 19th ranked defense by DVOA, and they’ve been living on the razor’s edge with the pressure their offensive line has been giving up. With the rematch taking place in Kansas City against an opponent so accustomed to playoff football, I can’t pick the Bengals and watch Joe Burrow try to make up for sacks drive after drive. Chiefs -7
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
There are two major questions coming into this game. First, can the Rams put together four quarters of their best football in one week? In Week 18, they took a 17-3 lead into halftime against the 49ers and looked to be in total control. They were outscored 21-7 in the second half and threw an interception in overtime before losing on a field goal. Last week they jumped out to a 20-3 halftime lead over the defending Super Bowl Champions, then gave up 14 fourth quarter points before pulling out a late field goal to advance. If they can put together two solid halves, they’re as scary as any team in the league. The second question is how much of the Rams Kyle Shanahan really owns. The 49ers have won each of their last six games against their division rivals, and they haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in any of them. Before the close Week 18 matchup, the Niners beat the Rams 31-10 in Week 10. I was pretty worried watching George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams all limp around the field near the end of their upset over the Packers last week, but it sounds like all three are practicing and expected to play on Sunday. With the way the Niners have been playing lately, we would need the Rams’ best performance since their 10-point win over Tampa Bay in Week 3 to expect a touchdown-sized win. I don’t trust them to reach that level here. 49ers +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
