2021 NFL Picks - Super Bowl 56: I May Have Been Early...
“I may have been early, but I’m not wrong.” This is one of my favorite lines in the 2015 film The Big Short, delivered by Christian Bale as Michael Burry, explaining to his clients that their patience in waiting for the real estate bubble to burst will ultimately pay off. It doesn’t really work the same way in the world of weekly NFL picks, but three straight playoff wins from Joe Burrow and the Bengals doesn’t necessarily mean they’re considerably better than we thought (and the statistics suggested) they were. Let’s get to the matchup!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Los Angeles Rams -4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Statistically, the Rams have the edge just about everywhere. They’re better in Offensive DVOA, Defensive DVOA, Special Teams DVOA, adjusted sack rate for and against, point differential, and wins, all against a significantly harder schedule. Their playoff wins include a blowout over a division rival with double-digit wins, a hold-on-to-your-butts squeaker over Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs, and a come-from-behind mind-blower against their nemesis. Cincinnati has a one-score win over a Raiders team with a point differential of -65, a 3-point nail-biter over one of the weakest 1-seeds of all time, and a come-from-behind win over Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Rams have won their three playoff games by a combined score of 84-55 compared to 72-59. Those numbers are a bit inflated for the Rams by their big win over Arizona, but the Cardinals were the worst opponent they’ve faced in the postseason at 10th in DVOA. The Buccaneers and Niners finished 3rd and 6th, respectively, while the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs finished 21st, 20th, and 7th.
So how does a team with a mediocre statistical resume like Cincinnati make it to the Super Bowl? One big reason is Joe Burrow. He hasn’t exactly been lights out through the postseason, but he’s been able to conjure a big play whenever the Bengals have needed one, whether it’s slipping out of the hands of Chris Jones or throwing a touchdown pass right before stepping out of bounds in the red zone. He’s earned every bit of praise he’s received for keeping cool in big moments. The Bengals’ defense has also pitched in with huge turnovers, and lots of them. They’ve come up with six interceptions and a strip-sack in three playoff games after creating 21 turnovers in 17 regular season games. With just two Joe Burrow turnovers and zero fumbles lost, Cincinnati has benefitted greatly from a +5 turnover margin in just three playoff games. Finally, they have an ace kicker in Evan McPherson. He’s 12/12 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points in the playoffs, with three of those field goals coming from at least 52 yards out. We always expect kickers to make their kicks, but any miss in there could have dramatically swung their close games in this playoff run.
The Rams are much less of a mystery. They finished the season in the top 10 of DVOA in all three phases of the game, and other than a significant number of interceptions from Matthew Stafford (17 in the regular season, tied for most in the league) and real matchup issues with the 49ers and Packers, they’ve looked like a Super Bowl contender from Week 1. Their stars have all played well, and head coach Sean McVay seems to be enjoying the upside Stafford provides compared to his predecessor Jared Goff. Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Jalen Ramsey all have legitimate claims as the best players at their positions, and midseason acquisitions Odell Beckham Jr. (19 catches, 236 yards, 1 TD) and Von Miller (12 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble) have provided a real boost in this playoff run. If they can avoid self-sabotage like the interception Stafford should have thrown against the Niners or Cam Akers’ two fumbles against the Buccaneers, they should beat just about any team in the league.
So, is this a Super Bowl redemption for Sean McVay and the Rams’ players who made it to the Super Bowl in the 2018-19 season only to lose 13-3 against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? Or is it the culmination of a magical run for a downtrodden fan base and a quarterback who can’t seem to lose when the games matter? All of the numbers are pointing me towards the Rams. My contrarian streak loves to see public money pouring in on the Bengals and the very likable Joe Burrow. Somewhere, I have a soft spot for Matthew Stafford after watching so many of his games with my friends cheering for the hapless Lions. But most importantly, there’s no way in hell Aaron Donald is letting Joe Burrow slip out of his grasp when he bursts into the backfield for the fifteenth time against Cincinnati’s pathetic offensive line. I think this Super Bowl might resemble the 2013-14 Super Bowl when the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom defense came out and destroyed Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Even if it doesn’t get that ugly, the Rams should win by a touchdown. Rams -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
