2021 NFL Picks Divisional Weekend: Rematches
Seven games over .500, seven games to go. This year’s divisional weekend features three regular season rematches and a fourth game between the two remaining teams in the bottom half of the DVOA tables. How much should Buffalo’s Week 5 win over Kansas City or the Packers’ and Rams’ victories over the Niners and Bucs in Week 3 factor into our picks here? They’re not meaningless, but 15 weeks is a long time in the NFL. We’ll just have to take it one game at a time!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans rank a lowly 20th in DVOA, but they might be coming into this game healthier than they’ve been since Week 1. Derrick Henry is expected to play, and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both off the injury report entirely. Cincinnati also has their major pieces in place, but their major pieces don’t stack up as well as Tennessee’s. The Bengals’ weak offensive line did just enough against the Raiders last week, but the Titans bring more than just Maxx Crosby to the table. They’ve managed to get pressure all season long without frequent blitzing, and while they don’t have a lot of name recognition in their secondary, they’ve rarely been torched through the air. The Bengals should do some damage in this game with Joe Burrow’s ability to get rid of the ball before pressure gets home, but Tennessee’s defense won’t let him hit easy routes all day long. I think Mike Vrabel and his staff have a significant edge over their Bengals’ counterparts, and with all of their offensive weapons available, I like them by much more than a field goal. Titans -3.5
Green Bay Packers -6 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Four games in just over two years for teams in different divisions. The Niners have been as close to a rival as anyone the Matt LaFleur-Aaron Rodgers Packers have known since LaFleur took over in 2019, dealing the duo two of their twelve losses and nearly pulling off a third earlier this season. San Francisco actually ranks higher in total and weighted DVOA coming into this game, and it looks like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are both expected to play. The Niners don’t have much of an answer for Davante Adams, but no one in the league really does; if Bosa and Arik Armstead can generate consistent pressure against a Packers’ offensive line that hasn’t faced many challenges this year, Kyle Shanahan can easily lean on his ground game to limit Green Bay possessions and chew up the clock in the second half. Six points is way too many to pass up against a Packers team with a suspect defense and terrible special teams. 49ers +6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
If we had just been able to simulate the games last weekend and fast forward to this one, I’m pretty sure I’d be siding with the Bucs. Tom Brady, at home, giving just a field goal to his opponent? Too easy to pass up. But the Wild Card matchup with the Eagles might have finally pushed Tampa Bay over the edge in terms of injuries for the year. Center Ryan Jensen and Tackle Tristan Wirfs are both listed as questionable coming into this game after suffering leg injuries last week, and if there’s a way to beat Tom Brady, it’s through his offensive line. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd will be looking to take advantage of weak pass protection while Sean McVay gets to scheme his offense against a weak secondary and a potentially gimpy Lavonte David. I’m not positive the Rams will win; Matthew Stafford could throw a head-scratching interception or two and put his team behind the eight ball. I just don’t think this version of the Bucs can pull away from a team with a top-five defense. Rams +3
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The matchup we all wanted to see in the AFC one week before most of us thought we’d see it. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes recovered from a slow start against the Steelers last week to score touchdowns on six straight drives and easily cover a 12.5 point spread last week. The Bills didn’t bother with any of the slow start nonsense, scoring seven touchdowns on seven non-kneeldown possessions against the Patriots. All of the signs I usually follow are telling me to pick Buffalo here. They looked better last week, they’re better in total DVOA and in the trenches, and they’re at least even on the coaching side with clock management still a mystery for Andy Reid. But I’m treating Patrick Mahomes like the new Tom Brady, and refusing to pick against him unless injuries have decimated his supporting cast like they did in last year’s Super Bowl. I’ll feel a lot better watching Josh Allen make this pick look bad with another superhuman performance than wondering what I was thinking as Patrick Mahomes chews up 60 yards in three plays for a game-winning field goal. Chiefs -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
