2021 NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: Accounting for Coaches
You would think with only six games to choose instead of sixteen, these picks and write-ups would take considerably less time. Unfortunately, I found myself spending extra time diving into the little factors of each matchup to see if there were secrets I’ve been overlooking all season long. The most confounding factor this week is coaching. Should I have less faith in Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor or interim coach Rich Bisaccia? How many points is Bill Belichick worth in a matchup with a highly-competent Sean McDermott? Can you really count on Mike McCarthy to do anything successfully? After finding plenty of arguments to almost perfectly offset each other, we settled on our six picks for Wild Card weekend. Let’s hope it goes better than last year!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Cincinnati Bengals -6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It seems public sentiment for the Bengals continues riding high from their win over Kansas City in Week 17; I was a bit surprised to see 10-7 Cincinnati giving nearly a touchdown to 10-7 Las Vegas to open up the playoffs. I like watching Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase as much as anyone, but their near-telepathic connection hasn’t really led to blowout victories outside of the AFC North. Cincinnati won six games this year by 7+ points, and four of them were against the Steelers and Ravens. Their other victims were the Lions and the Raiders, who were down by just three points with with six minutes left in the game. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has made things interesting against almost everyone who isn’t the Chiefs. Since their bye in Week 8, seven of their ten games have finished within one possession, with the only exceptions being two games against Kansas City and the aforementioned loss to the Bengals. The weather in Cincinnati should be predictably Midwest miserable, with cold and wind potentially affecting both offenses. Cincinnati has the playmakers to win this game, but six points is too much against a relentless Raiders’ pass rush getting after a gimpy Joe Burrow. Raiders +6
Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. New England Patriots
Round 3 for these teams, with a split in the first two and a combined point differential of Buffalo by 8. The weather forecast here shows extremely cold but minimal precipitation and wind. The latter factors have a much bigger negative impact on scoring, but single-digit temperatures can’t make catching passes easier. My first instinct was to pick the underdog Patriots, with the comfort of Bill Belichick and points calling out to me. The numbers suggest the line shouldn’t be this large as well; both teams finished top-5 in DVOA, and the Bills have a 35-point edge in point differential, or about two points per game. But thinking back on the two earlier meetings between these teams moved me closer to Buffalo. I think the Bills could have easily won the first meeting if they had come in with a more aggressive offensive gameplan, and we saw Josh Allen dice up the Pats with his arm and his legs in their second meeting. Unless Buffalo plays conservatively early and lets New England hang around, they can force Mac Jones to try moving the ball through the air against their #1 overall and pass defense. It’s easily the biggest advantage either team has, and it’s enough for me to think the Bills can win by a touchdown at home. Bills -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Oddly enough, these teams met early enough in the season that it’s almost irrelevant to the rematch. When Tampa Bay played Philadelphia in Week 6, the Eagles ran the ball 19 times (10 by Jalen Hurts) for 100 yards. Starting in Week 8 against the Lions, Philadelphia has averaged 29.5 RB runs per game as they dramatically shifted their offensive approach. They also went 7-3 in those 10 games, with close losses to the Chargers and Giants and a meaningless blowout loss in Week 18. I don’t think the Eagles have a real chance at making a run, or even a good chance to beat Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, but they’ve been a consistently competitive team since changing their approach. The Buccaneers seem to be headed in the opposite direction, with injuries to Lavonte David and Chris Godwin and whatever happened to Antonio Brown lowering the team’s ceiling. The Bucs are 7-1 in their last eight games, but five of those games were against teams ranked 26th or worse in DVOA. The final factor here is the weather, with wind and rain expected in Tampa Bay on Sunday. If the conditions make passing a little tougher than usual, and the Eagles can lean on their run game against a depleted Tampa Bay defense, they should be able to keep things interesting enough to make a one-score game downright plausible. Eagles +8.5
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco comes into this game on something of a heater, with seven wins in their last nine games and what seems to be a fully healthy offense. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Trent Williams are all expected to play on Sunday, giving Kyle Shanahan full use of his formidable playbook. The strengths of the Niners’ offense match up nicely with Dallas’ defense; the Cowboys finished 2nd in defensive DVOA, but just 16th against the run and 17th against passes to tight ends. All of this suggests San Francisco should be able to move the ball, but I’m a little more excited about what Dallas can do on offense. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are both healthy, and the Cowboys should be able to hold their own against Nick Bosa and company with the 9th-ranked offensive line by adjusted sack rate allowed. If they hold up just long enough, one of the best wide receiver duos in the league will get to go against a Niners’ secondary that just allowed A.J. Brown to go for 121 yards and a touchdown in the second half of a critical game en route to a 3-point Titans’ win. If I really just had to pick between Dak Prescott going against the San Francisco defense and Jimmy Garoppolo going against the Dallas defense, I’d be okay taking this line at 6. Unfortunately Mike McCarthy is involved. He may well be worth 2.5 points to the opposing team, but I can’t quite bring myself to block out visions of Jimmy G throwing balls into defenders’ stomachs over the middle of the field. I’d rather take the favorites here and put a little on the Niners to make a Super Bowl run than count on mistake-free football from the Niner’s quarterback of the present. Cowboys -3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Luckily we don’t need to spend nearly as much time breaking down this game. We saw these teams play each other less than a month ago, and Kansas City won by 26 points. Pittsburgh’s strengths are all on the defensive side of the ball, and they did nothing to slow down the Chiefs’ offense last time. T.J. Watt may be healthier, but he’s going against the league’s 4th-ranked offensive line by adjusted sack rate allowed and an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes combination that is now 6-2 in the postseason with an average margin of victory of 13.2 points in their six wins. Pittsburgh has only scored 30 points once all season, and I think they’ll need at least 30 to make this rematch competitive. Chiefs -12.5
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Another rubber match between division rivals here, with Arizona putting their oddly impressive 8-1 road record to the test against an erratic Rams team. Matthew Stafford hasn’t managed a passer rating above 100 since Week 15, taking six sacks and turning the ball over eight times in his last three games. The Rams’ defense finished the season 5th in DVOA, but they’ve given up a total of 60 points in their two games against the Cardinals this year and were recently seen letting the Niners score three second-half touchdowns on their way to an overtime win. Arizona finished the year on a 3-4 skid, but Kyler Murray looked sharp in their last two games against the Cowboys and Seahawks even without Deandre Hopkins. I don’t know if they can pull out the win, but with James Conner and Chase Edmonds healthy, Arizona will absolutely give the Rams a run for their money. Unless Matthew Stafford turns things around sharply and plays mistake-free football, we should be in for a back-and-forth divisional battle. Let’s take the points. Cardinals +4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
