2022 NFL Picks Week 1: Again, From the Top
Last Season: 146-138-1
This Week:
We finally did it! For the first time in six years of making NFL picks, we finished above .500.. Next up: clearing the 52.5% mark needed to break even on the season. What better connective tissue could we hope for than starting this season the same way we ended last?
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Last season ended with the Rams winning but failing to cover against Cincinnati in the Super Bowl. The 2022-23 season began with the Rams failing to win, cover, or look particularly competitive against Buffalo. I came into this game expecting the Bills to look good but struggle to stop a Rams offense with Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, and a stable of running backs behind a good offensive line. Instead, the revamped Buffalo pass rush made life miserable for Matthew Stafford once the Bills took the lead and they never looked back. Ah well – it’s a long season, and we have 271 games to go. Rams +2.5
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
What’s more of a downgrade: the Falcons going from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota at quarterback, or the Saints going from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen at head coach? Atlanta was less competitive than their 7-10 record suggested last year. Their point differential of -146 was the fifth-worst mark in the league, sandwiched right between the 4-win Giants and 3-win Lions. They pulled that off by going 7-2 in one-score games (yes, that means they never won by more than one score) and getting blown out in the other 8 games by a combined 169 points, or an average of three touchdowns per game. All eight of those games were against playoff teams, meaning they went 1-8 against playoff teams, with the lone win coming against a Trevor Siemian edition of the Saints in Week 9. I’m not crazy about Jameis Winston, but he’s definitely better than Siemian, and outside of tight end and kicker New Orleans is better at every position. I expect the Saints to miss Sean Payton over the course of the season, but not enough to make a difference against the rebuilding Falcons. Saints -5.5
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield revenge game! Cleveland finished 13th in DVOA last season, 14th on offense and 11th on defense. That feels about right for a team that regularly left me with a “meh” feeling. They made an interesting move to guarantee a massive contract to a player with 20+ sexual misconduct cases pending against him, and now seem optimistic it will inspire the team to play well with Jacoby Brissett for a laughably short 11 games. I don’t understand the logic there, but Matt Rhule’s tenure in Carolina hasn’t been stable or lucid either. I’m most interested to see what Baker looks like in the Panthers’ offense; before playing injured for much of last season, there was belief even outside of Progressive Insurance in Mayfield’s ability to lead a playoff team given a strong supporting cast. He may not make an efficient offense on his own, but Carolina has some decent playmakers and a healthy Christian McCaffrey to start the season. I think the Browns will play it safe and spend a lot of time handing off to Nick Chubb or checking down to Kareem Hunt, but their offensive line isn’t dominant enough to ride that strategy to an easy win. I think the Panthers should be favored by the full 3 points at home, so we’ll take them. Panthers -2.5
Chicago Bears +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
It’s far too early to tell, but it sounds like the Bears did a nice job with their draft picks this year. I was personally hoping we’d hire Brian Flores, but Matt Eberflus has a good track record and experience working in what seems like a very healthy coaching environment in Indianapolis. There’s more reason for long-term optimism among Bears’ fans since the early days of the Vic Fangio defense, but long-term is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. For now, they’re a team coming off a 6-11 year and an offseason of losing players for draft picks or cap flexibility facing a 49ers team comfortable changing quarterbacks after coming within a play or two of a Super Bowl berth. Nick Bosa and the rest of the San Francisco defensive line will wreak havoc on Justin Fields, the Bears don’t have the personnel to make Trey Lance miserable on the other side of the ball, and Kyle Shanahan will have plenty of ideas to create easy yards for playmakers like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. One touchdown won’t be enough. 49ers -7
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Defending AFC Champions against Mitch Trubisky and suspect blocking? Every part of me wants to believe the Bengals will continue their recent dominance of Pittsburgh and extend their streak of double-digit victories from 3 to 4. So why am I so nervous about this? Cincinnati shored up their biggest weakness along the offensive line and otherwise retained much of the same roster from their Super Bowl run. Joe Burrow is even further removed from the major injury he suffered in his rookie year, and the Steelers defense only managed to be mediocre last year despite big names like T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Maybe it’s unease from last season’s Week 1 upset of the Bills or the idea of a Super Bowl hangover for the Bengals, but it isn’t enough; take us to the promised land, Joe B! Bengals -6.5
Detroit Lions +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The subject of Hard Knocks is an underdog of more than a field goal at home to kick off the season. Philadelphia went from underrated to overrated in the course of one offseason, and are now expected to win the NFC East by most books. I’m still skeptical of how far Philadelphia can go with Jalen Hurts and last season’s 25th-ranked defense, but Detroit isn’t the team to exploit some of their weaknesses. The Eagles pounded the Lions into dust last season in their 44-6 Week 8 matchup, and nothing substantial enough has changed for either team to make me expect a different outcome this time. Philadelphia’s offensive line should dominate, and unless the Lions have some truly new offensive wrinkles for Jared Goff to capitalize on, they’ll run away with this one comfortably. Eagles -4
Houston Texans +8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has won seven of their last eight matchups with Houston, and last season won their two games by a combined score of 62-3. Matt Eberflus might be in Chicago now, but unless the Colts’ defense takes a huge step back, they seem to have Davis Mills’ number. Matt Ryan is on the downswing of his career but he’s still an upgrade over Carson Wentz and nothing about Houston’s offseason makes me think they’ll be considerably better this year. Even a couple of hiccups while integrating a new quarterback won’t be enough to keep this one close unless the Texans figure out what to do on offense. Colts -8
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. New England Patriots
I thought Brian Flores did some interesting things last year to expose the flaws in Mac Jones’ game, and Miami managed to win both matchups with New England. Of course, he was fired and replaced by an offensive-minded head coach. I like the Dolphins’ setup a lot more than the bizarre Patriots plan of entrusting some combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge with their offense, but aren’t we overreacting to the bad publicity of the preseason a bit here? New England was a much better team than Miami last year (point differential of +159 to -32) and I don’t think Tyreek Hill alone can strain a Belichick defense. I love the opportunity to get the Patriots and the points here. Patriots +3
New York Jets +7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has scored an average of 41.3 points per game in Week 1 since Lamar Jackson took over in 2019. Here they’re opening the season against last year’s worst-ranked defense and, somehow, Joe Flacco as the opposing quarterback. The Ravens are much healthier than they were when the wheels fell off last year, and the status of Lamar Jackson’s contract shouldn’t adversely affect them during the season. The Ravens have little to fear from the Jets, and they should get another big Week 1 win to start their climb back to the top of the AFC North. Ravens -7
Washington Commanders -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Washington clearly overpaid for Carson Wentz early in the offseason, but at least everything else in the organization seems functional. Right? Just ignore the investigations into organizational culture, the owner possibly hiding on his boat from subpoenas, and the crawling back to Antonio Gibson after giving his job to a rookie in camp, and things feel fine in Washington. The Jaguars know the feeling well, having only recently escaped from the quagmire of Urban Meyer’s culture. I’m expecting a solid sophomore season from Trevor Lawrence, and for any of Doug Pederson’s flaws, he’s won quite a few games as an NFL head coach. Let’s take the points and see what happens. Jaguars +3
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I don’t love picking the Chiefs and their defense as big favorites, but I love everything going on in Arizona even less. Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t shown the kind of innovation Cardinals’ fans were hoping to see over his first few seasons, Deandre Hopkins is suspended for six games, and Kyler Murray is being publicly shamed by his own organization for lack of preparation. Is there a world where Kyler takes advantage of a young-but-talented Kansas City defense and keeps things interesting until the final possession? Absolutely. Is it more likely Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense drops 30 points in the first half and coasts to a comfortable win? Yes, absolutely. I think Kansas City is going to be on a warpath this year, and it will start with a double-digit win here. Chiefs -4.5
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Matt LaFleur has gone 39-10 since taking over as the head coach of the Packers in 2019, and two of those ten losses have come against the Vikings. It’s not that Minnesota has Green Bay’s number or anything like that, but they clearly present some problems for the Packers’ defense. The Vikings’ defense worst nightmare from the past few years is now on the Raiders; in six matchups since 2019, Davante Adams has averaged 114 yards per game and scored 8 touchdowns. I don’t think Green Bay’s offense will struggle all year, but they might not be quite as efficient against Minnesota as they were with Adams. If that’s the case, the home team should at least keep things close in Week 1. Vikings +1.5
Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs. New York Giants
It seems like no good news has come out of Tennessee in quite some time. Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill combined to throw cold water on the Titans’ Super Bowl hopes last season, and they lost A.J. Brown as a cap casualty in the offseason. They’re still miles ahead of the Giants, though, who finished last year third-to-last in W-L and second-to-last in DVOA. Mike Vrabel has consistently squeezed extra from his team, and we don’t know what to expect from Brian Daboll in his first stop as a head coach. I am still very out on Daniel Jones, and while Saquon Barkley appears to be healthy, we haven’t seen the electric physical traits from his early games in quite some time. Tennessee should be able to ride a strong defensive line and a healthy Derrick Henry to an easy win. Titans -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Uh-oh! Everyone seems to be in on the Chargers this year. Justin Herbert is ready to break out (again). Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and J.C. Jackson have been brought in to address the defensive issues that sabotaged their playoff plans last season. There’s no doubt they have the talent to make a deep playoff run, and I don’t have the same issues with head coach Brandon Staley’s aggressive fourth down approach as some people out there. BUT. Never forget, they are the Chargers. For some reason, they aren’t allowed to have nice things. It’s the easiest explanation for how they lost to this Raiders team in Week 18 last year to miss the playoffs, and it’s the safest bet for what awaits them this season until proven otherwise. They absolutely should win this game, but by more than a field goal despite having no home field advantage? Mmm maybe not. Raiders +3.5
Dallas Cowboys +2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s been a weird offseason for Tom Brady, from being mad about claims he’d retire, to retiring, to being involved in some kind of blatant tampering investigation into the Miami Dolphins, to unretiring, to now surprisingly missing some training camp days. Dallas hasn’t had a weird offseason as much as a bad one; left tackle Tyron Smith got injured and Mike McCarthy remained their head coach. I think the Bucs are the better team, especially factoring in regression for the Dallas defense, but giving points on the road? That might be a reach with some of the offseason oddities and a receiving corps down Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin. Cowboys +2
Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Denver Broncos
Pete Carroll and the rest of his coaching staff should have some great ideas about how to limit Russell Wilson’s effectiveness. They should also have the team plenty motivated to take on the quarterback who so desperately wanted to escape them to play with other people. Seattle has some decent young talent and possibly found some promising cornerbacks in the draft to build around. But their quarterbacks are Geno Smith and Drew Lock, and the Broncos have promising young defensive players of their own, starting with Patrick Surtain II. I don’t know if Russell Wilson is going to light his ex-team on fire in his first start, but there’s no way he can’t cover a touchdown against Geno Smith. Geno Smith!! Broncos -6
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
