2021 NFL Picks Week 10: Big Favorites
Of course we weren’t happy to come up short of .500 last week, but the Monday Night Football game made a big difference for yours truly. I don’t believe season-long tanking is a viable strategy in the NFL (too hard to sell to a group of players with average careers just over three years long), but my Bears checked three big boxes for me. First, and most importantly, Justin Fields played a top-10 Bears QB game of my lifetime. It seems hyperbolic, but it’s true. Second, the Bears covered the spread easily. And third, they lost. I cannot live through another season of Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace, and the only way to guarantee their dismissal is to continue losing.
Yes, we just spent over 100 words on the Chicago Bears losing their sixth game of the season. It really was that noteworthy. On to the picks!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Miami Dolphins +7.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I had a lot of confidence in the Ravens coming off a bye, and it seems that was very misplaced. The Dolphins won by 12, on the strength of an 8-13 for 158 yards Tua Tagovailoa line. This was probably just one of those weird games (the fourth quarter defensive touchdown certainly swung things), but Baltimore has real problems on offense. Ravens -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -8 vs. Detroit Lions
I don’t like picking zombie Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers by a full touchdown against anyone, but this is the right spot for it. They’re at home against a Lions team who loves giving up receiving yards and touchdowns to running backs. Roethlisberger loves nothing more than checking down at this point, and Najee Harris should be in line for a big day. With T.J. Watt healthy, Pittsburgh won’t have any trouble forcing turnovers from Jared Goff. Whatever magic kept Detroit’s games close in the first five weeks seems to have worn off, and I don’t expect it to return on the road. Steelers -8
Dallas Cowboys -9 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Dak Prescott is now two weeks removed from his calf injury, and he gets to face Atlanta’s 27th-ranked pass defense instead of Denver’s 15th-ranked unit. Atlanta won’t be doing anything to slow down the Cowboys unless Prescott finds a new injury, and while Atlanta has looked a little better recently, their offense still isn’t good. Trevon Diggs should be salivating over clips of Matt Ryan passes slowly making their way to the boundaries, and I like his chances for a pick-six. Cowboys -9
Washington Football Team +10 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have to go on the road here, but they’ll be coming off a bye and trying to wash the bad taste of their loss to Trevor Siemian out of their mouths. Washington hasn’t been competitive since their Week 4 win over the Falcons, and Bucs’ defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is going to be attacking Taylor Heinicke all day. I expect this one to get ugly fast. Buccaneers -10
New York Jets +13 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo needs to get back on track after their embarrassing loss to the Jaguars, and the Jets present a perfect opportunity. Mike White has looked better than Zack Wilson, but he’s facing a great Buffalo defense and his weapons are limited. Josh Allen should be able to get things rolling again facing the Jets’ 32nd-ranked defense, and I don’t think the Bills will mess around in garbage time. Bills -13
New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
There’s a lot of momentum and excitement building around the Patriots and rookie quarterback Mac Jones, and some of it is certainly warranted. I’m a little concerned by the fact that their five wins have come against the Jets (twice), the Texans, the Panthers, and the Chargers. The Chargers are by far the best of that bunch, and they rank 16th in total DVOA with the worst run defense in the league. Cleveland has the fifth-best run defense, and their offense should be happy running the ball all day. I don’t expect a big game from Baker Mayfield, but Cleveland doesn’t need that to keep this a close, low-scoring game. I’m happy to take the points here. Browns +2.5
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Was this just a collective shrug by the bookmakers giving Tennessee the standard home three? I don’t really know what to make of either team, with both teams knocking off top-tier NFC competition without key offensive pieces. The Titans defense has taken a big step forward this year, but they still aren’t as good as New Orleans on that side of the ball. I’d much rather have Ryan Tannehill than anyone the Saints are thinking about lining up under center, but New Orleans has an advantage in the trenches. I think this one will look like New England-Cleveland, and if that’s the case, I like getting an extra field goal. Saints +3
Indianapolis Colts -10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I really didn’t expect the Colts to put up a 40-burger at any point this season, but they did just that last week to cover a big spread against the Jets. Jacksonville doesn’t present much more of a challenge, and this is a nice chance to pick against Urban Meyer on the road. The Colts’ defense should give Trevor Lawrence fits, and 10 points isn’t asking much unless we get got in garbage time. Colts -10
Arizona Cardinals -10 vs. Carolina Panthers
I don’t like the idea of picking this game before I know Kyler Murray’s status. Colt McCoy did well last week, but the Panthers’ defense can feast on bad QBs. Game time decision. TBD
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Hey, we get to pick against the Eagles on the road! Denver will dink and dunk their way down the field on offense all day, and their defense won’t have more trouble with Jalen Hurts than anyone else has this season. This one feels a little too easy, but people seem high on Philadelphia for mysterious reasons. Broncos -2.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Aaron “Immunized” Rodgers is active, and definitely a tool. Russell Wilson is active, and may have a bad finger. We need to wait and learn more about what’s going on. TBD
Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders were a thorn in this version of the Chiefs’ side even before the rest of the league became thorny for them. Las Vegas has been able to put up points and stay competitive with Patrick Mahomes since he took over, and this version of the Kansas City offense is nowhere near the threat they’ve been in the past. The Chiefs need a miraculous turnaround here if they’re going to blow anyone out, and I don’t know where it’s supposed to come from. Raiders +2.5
San Francisco 49ers +4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
At first glance, I was really excited to pick the Rams here. Looking at the matchup history, though, Kyle Shanahan has had a lot of success against Sean McVay. The Niners have won their last four games against the Rams, and their defense should play well against this banged-up version of Matt Stafford. I think the Rams are a better team, but four points for the home team with a track record of success is too much to pass up. 49ers +4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
