2021 NFL Picks Week 9: Injuries Everywhere!
Okay, another positive week in the books and another set of injuries to parse. Derrick Henry is out. Michael Thomas isn’t coming back to help whoever is playing quarterback for the Saints. Odell Beckham Jr. is no longer playing. Aaron Rodgers is in the penalty box because pseudoscience is, shockingly, not science. Let’s see if we can avoid a season-ending injury to our picks this week.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Indianapolis Colts -10.5 vs. New York Jets
I really liked what I saw from Mike White, and I loved getting so many points with visions of his big win in mind. If you told me ahead of time the Jets would score 30 points, I’d feel even better. Somehow Carson Wentz managed 45, so we’re starting this week off with a loss. Jets +10.5
New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans had a great win over the Buccaneers last week, but they’re going to need Taysom Hill to pull off two consecutive division wins. Trevor Siemian can’t manage it all on his own. Fortunately for the Saints, Atlanta is on the road and currently ranked 32nd in total DVOA. Unless Matt Ryan can regain his 2017 form, this Falcons team isn’t good enough to keep up with whatever Sean Payton puts together. Saints -7
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It doesn’t feel good picking a west coast team giving more than a field goal on the east coast, but I can’t bring myself to believe in the Giants just yet. Derek Carr and the Raiders’ offense doesn’t seem to miss Jon Gruden at all, and a surprisingly middling defense should do enough to keep Daniel Jones in check. Don’t count on Joe Judge. Raiders -3.5
Carolina Panthers +4 vs. New England Patriots
We got a win with the Panthers last week, but going against the Patriots is a lot different than taking on the Falcons. Mac Jones still looks competent-plus, and my biggest concerns are around Sam Darnold facing a good defense. Carolina’s offense should be just sloppy enough to fall out of contention in the third quarter of this one. Patriots -4
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Bengals really threw things out of whack by losing to the Jets last week, but their offense still played well and they’re giving less than a field goal to the Browns. Cleveland hasn’t scored 20 points since their Week 5 loss to the Chargers, and something isn’t right with Baker Mayfield. Unless Cleveland’s defense steps up in a big way and buries Joe Burrow, the Browns can’t score enough to keep up. Bengals -2.5
Miami Dolphins -5.5 vs. Houston Texans
On one hand, the Dolphins shouldn’t be giving more than the standard home 3 points to anyone. On the other, it’s Houston. The Texans have lost their last three games by a combined 70 points, and they’ve been dealing what talent they have for picks. If Tua can just show a couple sparks, he should be able to get the 24 points Miami needs to cover this spread. Dolphins -5.5
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I have very little faith in the Vikings at this point. Their glimmers of offensive competence just aren’t enough to count on them against well-rounded teams. Even if Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have a field day against Baltimore’s depleted secondary, there’s no reason to believe the Vikings can slow down Lamar Jackson coming off a bye week. I would be a little hesitant on this line if the Ravens were on the road, but with the game in Baltimore I’m okay giving a touchdown. Ravens -6
Jacksonville Jaguars +14.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The best team by DVOA against the third-worst team by DVOA. Am I supposed to be scared off by the half point, or the home-field advantage in Jacksonville? Neither makes me think too hard about this one, especially with Buffalo’s propensity for crushing inferior competition. Bills -14.5
Dallas Cowboys -10 vs. Denver Broncos
Dak Prescott missed last game with a calf injury. Cooper Rush came in and somehow beat the Vikings, but the calf injury really makes me nervous. If the ceiling on Dallas’s offense is limited, their defense might not be able to lean on big plays the way they have so far. Teddy Bridgewater can usually be trusted to protect the ball, so if Dak is unavailable or limited, this will be a much less eventful game than we hoped. Let’s take the double digits. Broncos +10
Philadelphia Eagles +1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
So the Eagles destroyed the Lions, huh? Very nice, Philadelphia. A real NFL team is coming to town this week, and Justin Herbert can’t wait to exploit the holes in the Eagles’ secondary. Jalen Hurts can’t win if the game turns into a shootout, and Philadelphia doesn’t have enough weapons to keep things interesting from the jump. Chargers -1
San Francisco 49ers EVEN vs. Arizona Cardinals
Did Kyler Murray get hurt last week and I missed it? Or did a close loss to the Packers make people think the Cardinals aren’t as good as they were when they won this matchup by a touchdown a few weeks ago? I don’t think the Niners feel good about their quarterback situation, and all we need is a win by the better team. Cardinals to win
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Ahh, looks like I can finally get rid of my grudging respect for Aaron Rodgers. He’ll be missing this game for completely avoidable and socially irresponsible reasons, which means Jordan Love will be lining up under center for Green Bay. I wish this line was less than a touchdown after seeing Kansas City’s offense flounder once again last week, but the matchup is just too juicy here. Chiefs -7.5
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry is out, which creates a very interesting opportunity to assess the value of a running back who was truly redefining expectations in terms of volume and efficiency. I usually wouldn’t factor it in, but Henry is different because of his ability to take over second halves of games and make running a viable option even without the lead. The Rams are just too good to let Ryan Tannehill and, incomprehensibly, Adrian Peterson throw a wrench in their plans for the top seed in the NFC. Rams -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
As Justin Fields gets more comfortable, the Bears have to keep things tight against a mediocre team, right? Eventually? I like the Bears’ defense going against this version of Ben Roethlisberger more than teams like the Bucs and the Packers, and if it’s a low-scoring battle it’s too many points to pass up. Especially against a team with a concussed kicker. Bears +6.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
