2021 NFL Picks Week 11: Medium-Sized Dogs
There are five games with a spread greater than 3 but less than 7.5 this week, and we’re taking the underdog in four of them. Underdogs have performed very well against the spread this season, and there just aren’t many teams in the tier between the mediocre and the magnificent. Let’s see how the dogs do!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Atlanta Falcons +7 vs. New England Patriots
This line moved a point and a half before I took it, and I still ended up going with the Patriots. I actually expected a bit stronger from them on offense, but the New England defense, which was 5th in DVOA on the year after their demolition of the Browns, put together another masterclass on Thursday night. I don’t like what that says about someone with Steve Belichick’s haircut, or Matt Patricia’s presence, but we’ll take the win. Patriots -7
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Since the Ravens took apart the Chargers in Week 6, they’ve scored just 27 points in two losses to the Bengals and Dolphins and pulled out an overtime win over the Vikings. The Ravens’ defense now ranks 25th in DVOA, and 24th against the pass. I don’t know if Chicago’s defense can keep Lamar Jackson in check all game, but this feels like a great opportunity for Justin Fields’ first big statement game. I think the Bears will keep things interesting at home. Bears +6
Cleveland Browns -12.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I just can’t pick the Lions correctly. When I think they’ll be obliterated like you’d expect from a team ranked 29th in total DVOA, Mason Rudolph gets a surprise start or teams like the Vikings and Ravens forget how to reach 20 points. When I think they’ll keep things tight because they’re facing an opponent with many flaws of their own, they lose by 38 to the Eagles or 23 to the Bengals. This week, Cleveland gets a chance to take out their frustrations from a huge loss to the Patriots by hosting the Lions. Whether or not Baker Mayfield is available, the Browns’ offense should get back on track very quickly and put Jared Goff into a negative game script. From there, two touchdowns isn’t too tall an ask. Browns -12.5
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Minnesota really came through for me last week, going into Los Angeles and beating the Chargers as an underdog. The Packers are much better than the Chargers, and Aaron Rodgers has a long history of beating Minnesota. I thought this line would be a full field goal, so I’m happy giving the 2.5 and waiting to see what interesting new way the Vikings find to crush their fans. Packers -2.5
Tennessee Titans -10 vs. Houston Texans
Houston really struggled last week, but it’s a huge benefit to have Tyrod Taylor back under center. I don’t think the Texans are ready to go on a winning streak, but their offensive floor is a lot higher than it was with Davis Mills. I don’t think Tennessee can keep pulling games out without Derrick Henry, and this feels like a perfect spot for a letdown. Unless the Titans can rebound to scoring 30 points, this is a big spread for a banged up team to cover against an NFL-caliber quarterback. Texans +10
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. Indianapolis Colts
A huge defensive leap has masked some of Buffalo’s issues this season, with their offense falling from 5th in DVOA last season to 19th through the first 10 weeks. A little regression from Josh Allen and a dearth of playmaking beyond Stefon Diggs has allowed teams like the Steelers and Jaguars to really limit what the Bills can do. Indianapolis’ defense should be the toughest one Buffalo has faced this season, and the Colts have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. If they can keep getting production from Carson Wentz, they’ll have no trouble keeping this a one score game. Colts +7
New York Jets +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
I certainly hope no one asks for this game in whatever section of Four Peaks we’re seated on Sunday. The Jets are welcoming back Zach Wilson, who wasn’t showing many signs of improvement before getting injured back in Week 5. Miami has at least shown some glimmers of hope, with their defense holding the Texans and Ravens to just 19 total points in the past two weeks. In a matchup like this, that’s enough of an edge to determine the outcome. Dolphins -3
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
There’s a lot of excitement surrounding the Eagles once again after their win over Denver last week, but I just can’t get there. Is it because of my not-so-lovely but very stereotypical experience visiting the City of Brotherly Love in the past? That could be part of it – the Eagles’ losses are about as good as you can get, with six games against teams with a combined 33-22 record. I’m also very suspicious of Jalen Hurts and a Philadelphia offense best at running the ball going against the Saints’ #1 rush defense. New Orleans has been surprisingly competent on offense with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill taking snaps, and that should be enough with the Eagles’ offense stuck in mud all game. Saints +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Since their Week 6 bye, the 49ers have alternated losing and winning with their offense going between the teens and 30+ points. They’re due for another stinker this week after beating the Rams 31-10, but they get to play the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 28th in total DVOA with wide defensive splits; they’re 7th against the run but 31st against the pass. It’s probably asking too much, but if Jacksonville can put the entire game on Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulders and get some big plays from Trevor Lawrence, I like them to keep things interesting at home this week. Jaguars +7
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Washington Football Team
Washington is coming off their best performance of the year in an upset over Tampa Bay, but there’s only one highly-ranked unit in this matchup, and it’s Carolina’s #3 defense. Even with Sam Darnold’s vicious regression, the Panthers have been able to win two of their last three games on the strength of their defense, and they won’t have to work too hard to get the better of Washington’s 20th-ranked offense. All we need is a couple of plays from Phillip Walker and Cam Newton to get a win at home. Panthers -3
Las Vegas Raiders +1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
These teams are about equal in my head, which is pretty well-reflected in such a small line. Both have struggled recently, too, with the Bengals losing back-to-back games to the Jets and Browns and the Raiders losing their last two against the Giants and Chiefs. I have a bit more faith in the Bengals, mostly because of their playmakers on offense. Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow are good for two or three explosive plays every game, and my fantasy team can attest to Darren Waller’s ineffectiveness this season. Let’s see if Cincy can make things extra interesting in the AFC North. Bengals -1
Seattle Seahawks +2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray was considered a 50/50 shot last time I checked, which to me sounds like “we’ll see how Kyler is feeling and if Minnesota can beat the Packers and give us some breathing room in the race for the #1 seed.” I don’t want to pick Arizona and end up with Colt McCoy giving points on the road, and I’m hoping Russell Wilson looks a little better in his second game back from injury. We’ll take the desperate home team getting points in this one. Seahawks +2
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I guess we were really impressed with Kansas City’s win over the Raiders last week! Right back to giving points to the only team ranked in the top 5 of both offensive and defensive DVOA. The Chiefs may be back to some extent, but Dallas presents a real problem on defense and might be smart enough to embrace the two-high safety approach the rest of the league has used against Patrick Mahomes this year. The real problem with this line is on the other side of the ball, though. The Chiefs’ defense has improved considerably since the start of the year, but they’ve also faced Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, and Derek Carr in the last three weeks. The Raiders were right on the cusp of 20+ points midway through the third quarter when Desean Jackson threw the ball at Tyrann Mathieu, so even Kansas City’s best performance in that stretch comes with an asterisk. Dallas’s offense has had only one real hiccup this season, and the Chiefs don’t have anywhere near the personnel Denver used to slow down the Cowboys. I like the over here no matter what, but the Cowboys are the better team on both sides of the ball and they’re getting points. Cowboys +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have lost three of their last four games and haven’t scored 30+ points since Week 5 against Cleveland. They only have one win this season by more than one score, and it came back in Week 4 against the Raiders. There’s something very wrong with the Chargers’ offense, and that isn’t a good way to go into a game against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers have been dying to run the ball with Najee Harris all season and take the occasional deep shot with Ben Roethlisberger, and they should be able to do both in this game against the league’s worst run defense by DVOA. Throw in a home field advantage for Pittsburgh in the Chargers’ Los Angeles stadium, and you have the makings of an upset. Steelers +5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 vs. New York Giants
I’m not too concerned with the Buccaneers’ season-long prospects, but losing to the Saints’ backup QB, taking a bye week, and then giving up a 10 minute game-sealing drive to Taylor Heinecke is a tough look. The Giants have played a difficult schedule this year, and they’ve only lost big to the Cowboys and Rams. Tampa Bay can definitely be at the same level as those teams, but how do we decide which version we’ll get here? I’m banking on Tom Brady and Tampa being better at home, and Daniel Jones not being a good enough quarterback to take advantage of the Bucs’ depleted secondary. Buccaneers -10.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
