2021 NFL Picks Week 12: Zagging with the Favorites
So far this season, underdogs are covering with the spread over 55% of the time. That means I could have just picked the underdog in every matchup so far this season and I would be showing off a nice sustainable winning margin (about 52.5% is the break-even point). Of course, we haven’t done that, and we’re instead sitting at a 48.8% success rate so far. Well, we’re zagging this week! There are ZERO games this week with a double-digit spread, and only one at a full seven points. Nine games are showing lines of a field goal or less, with another two at 3.5 points. As you’ll see below, we’re going heavy on favorites to cover these short spreads. Let’s get into Week 12!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Detroit Lions +3 vs. Chicago Bears
What a way to start Thanksgiving! Maybe the goal was to make every team with a competent front office thankful for what their team does. Rolling out of bed to watch Andy Dalton against Jared Goff or Tim Boyle won’t be exciting, but it should provide an easy opportunity for the Bears to get their fourth win of the season and hurt their draft pick. I’d be upset about the latter, but we owe that pick to the Giants anyway. Anyway, the Lions are winless and rank 30th in DVOA. Even with the injuries Chicago has sustained, they should be able to limit Detroit’s offense to 10 points, and we’re starting to see enough sparks from the Bears’ offense to think they can reach 13. Bears -3
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This game seemed a lot more exciting before the Cowboys scored under 20 points in two of their last three games and the Raiders dropped three games in a row, averaging just over 14 points per game. The issues should be easier to fix for Dallas, who still has a plethora of skill position players and a top-tier quarterback. Las Vegas has looked lost in recent weeks, and they now sit 23rd in DVOA. This is an opportunity for the Cowboys to make a big statement at home and put some extra distance between themselves and the Eagles. I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive firepower to keep up for four quarters. Cowboys -7
New Orleans Saints +6 vs. Buffalo Bills
There are some good signs here for the Saints. Their defense is strong, and they have the personnel to make Josh Allen be patient all the way down the field like some of Buffalo’s tougher opponents have done. The Bills are currently sitting at 18th in offense, and their defense hasn’t had to face many legitimate quarterbacks. Unfortunately, New Orleans doesn’t have a legitimate quarterback to throw at them this game, and they may also be missing legitimate running backs and wide receivers. I’m okay with giving a touchdown head start to Trevor Siemian, Marquez Callaway, and Tony Jones on a short week. Bills -6
New England Patriots -6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are very similar to the Saints in this one. Ryan Tannehill is better than we all thought he was in Miami, but he’s probably playing without Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones in this game. New England is going to have a lot of fun tormenting the quarterback who ended the Tom Brady era, and they seem well-equipped to attack Tennessee’s defense on the other side of the ball. New England’s offense is 16th in DVOA, but they have a strong offensive line and should be able to run the ball against the Titans’ 18th-ranked run defense. The Pats have a real chance to throw a second straight shutout here, and 6.5 isn’t much in that light. Patriots -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +1 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The two-win Jaguars are only getting a point this week! Sure, Atlanta has been disappointing, but their offense should be looking forward to an easy opponent in Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked pass defense. Atlanta’s defense is actually slightly worse than Jacksonville’s overall, but the Jaguars don’t have the same kind of offensive weapons the Falcons do. It would be nice to see a big game from Trevor Lawrence, but it’s tough when he doesn’t have anyone to throw the ball to. Falcons -1
Miami Dolphins +1 vs. Carolina Panthers
This one is pretty straightforward: the Panthers still have a very good defense, and we haven’t seen anything from Miami to make us think they can put up points on a good defense. Cam Newton certainly isn’t the long-term answer in Carolina this time around, but he and Christian McCaffrey should be able to make enough plays to win this one easily. Panthers -1
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve finally lost enough going against the Eagles to make me reconsider. Jalen Hurts may never develop as a passer, but as long as he keeps running the ball effectively and taking care of the ball, Philadelphia’s offense can grind most of their opponents into the dirt. The Giants’ defense ranks 17th overall but 30th against the run, so Philadelphia’s offensive linemen should be licking their chops heading into this one. On the other side of the ball, it’s Daniel Jones. Sure, he might break an 80 yard run, but it’s a 50/50 shot if he can hang on to the ball the entire time. Firing Jason Garrett is always a good idea, but I don’t think it’s going to help New York much this week. Eagles -3.5
Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Colts have looked great lately, with five wins in their last six games including a beatdown in Buffalo. Oddly enough, Carson Wentz only threw for 106 yards in that 41-15 win. Indianapolis will definitely need more than that from their passing game to get a win against Tampa Bay’s 4th-ranked run defense. If the Colts struggle to move the ball on the ground and their 20th-ranked pass defense is giving up yards to Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense, Wentz is going to be forced into some of his trademark ugly turnovers. I think this game will get out of hand quickly. Buccaneers -3
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh when these teams met in Week 3, but the Steelers have started to look a bit better on offense since then. The Bengals finally got back on track against the Raiders last week, but Pittsburgh likely won’t let them win the game on the ground alone. Joe Burrow is going to have to make some big plays through the air to sweep the season series, and I just don’t see the Steelers letting the game slip too far away with the way their offense has played lately. Steelers +4.5
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. New York Jets
Tyrod Taylor helped the Texans pull off a big upset last week, and he now gets to line up against the league’s worst defense at home. Zach Wilson is starting for the Jets again, and their usual backup quarterbacks are both on the COVID-19 list. If White struggles or gets dinged up in this game, both of which are likely, Houston should be cruising comfortably to their third win of the year. Texans -2.5
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Neither of these teams have been able to put together a strong stretch this season, but the Chargers are starting to look up a bit more than the Broncos. Denver’s offense just has too many injuries to manage gracefully, and their run game isn’t strong enough to lean on all game long. The Chargers still need to be pushing the ball down the field more than they are, but they have a definite edge here in playmaking. Chargers -2.5
Green Bay Packers EVEN vs. Los Angeles Rams
I was a little surprised the Packers weren’t favored here, but I still have more faith in Sean McVay and the defensive playmakers on the Rams than any particular unit Green Bay is bringing to the table. The Rams almost managed to win this matchup last year when the Packers were rolling and a banged-up Jared Goff was throwing the football. Even if Matthew Stafford isn’t 100%, he represents a big upgrade over what they had last meeting. A couple timely plays from Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Jalen Ramsey should be enough to beat out a Green Bay offense that has only scored 30 points three times this season. Rams to Win
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco is absolutely rounding into shape for a playoff run. Their most important offensive pieces are getting healthy, their defense held the Rams to just 10 points two weeks ago, and they seem to have given up on the Trey Lance experiment for the time being. Minnesota has looked equally strong lately, with big wins over the Chargers and Packers, and more and more passes going to Justin Jefferson. I’m not sure I like the matchup for the Vikings very much as the Niners continue building on their run game, but a full field goal seems like a good get. Vikings +3
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Which Browns team are we going to see this week? The one that stomped the Bengals in Week 9 behind a strong defense and Nick Chubb’s ground game? Or the one that was nearly shut out by the Patriots and then struggled to finish off the Lions last week? I just can’t trust Baker Mayfield and Cleveland to play well, and Baltimore needs this game badly at home to establish themselves more firmly atop the AFC North. Ravens -3.5
Washington Football Team -1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Okay, so maybe Russell Wilson being an especially strong healer isn’t a real thing. That said, he’ll have another week of recovery under his belt heading into this game, an absolute must-win against the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Seattle’s defense is good enough against the run to make Taylor Heinecke beat them, and I like those odds after two good games from the Washington offense. Seahawks +1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
