2021 NFL Picks Week 13: Leaning Harder into the Favorites
Ouch, that one stung. I should have leaned even harder into the favorites (8-6 against the spread) than I did, and we’re doing that this week with 11 favorites in 14 picks. We’ve already lost one of the three underdog bets, so let’s hope that’s a good sign for the rest of the slate!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
New Orleans Saints +5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
My confidence in this pick and my fantasy team plummeted when it was announced Alvin Kamara would be out, and I should have followed through and changed my pick then. My rationale here was that New Orleans would be stingy on defense and Sean Payton would come up with a Taysom Hill-focused gameplan which would shorten the game and keep things close until the very end. With Kamara in the lineup, the Saints might have had just enough playmaking to do that. They certainly didn’t without him. Saints +5
Chicago Bears +7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both listed as questionable for the Cardinals, but I’m not sure how much it matters for this pick. Sure, the Bears’ defense could make life difficult for Colt McCoy if he’s forced into action again, but Arizona’s 3rd-ranked defense should have a field day against the Andy Dalton-Matt Nagy combination that eked out a win with 16 points against the Lions last week. There’s no reason to believe in this Bears team, especially without the variance Justin Fields can provide. Cardinals -7
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
My first inclination was to go with the underdogs here, but something has been going on with the Chiefs lately. Their offense certainly isn’t back on track entirely, but their defense hasn’t given up 20 points since Week 7. That’s a good place to start against Denver’s middling offense, but the matchup looks even better on the other side of the ball. Denver’s defense ranks 25th in DVOA, and Andy Reid will have his offense coming off a bye week with plenty of time to tweak the areas where they’ve been struggling. If the Chiefs are going to make a run to the Super Bowl again, it will start with a big win here. Chiefs -9.5
Miami Dolphins -4 vs. New York Giants
The Giants have won four games this season, and three of them have been at home. On the road, they’re 1-4 with a -42 point differential. Now they’re facing a Miami defense that has been improving over the course of the season, giving up just 11.5 points per game during their current 4-game win streak. Daniel Jones has been ruled out, meaning Mike Glennon will be lining up under center. Unless Tua regresses all the way, Miami is set up for another big win and an outside shot at a playoff berth. Dolphins -4
Atlanta Falcons +11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have some extreme home-road splits on offense, making this large a spread seem pretty dicey. Luckily, the Falcons are dead last in DVOA and have a proclivity for losing big. Four of their six losses have come by 20+ points, including a Week 2 thrashing in Tampa Bay. Tom Brady seemed to have things working pretty well on the road in Indianapolis last week, and unless the Falcons have radically overhauled something, we should see another drubbing here. Buccaneers -11
Detroit Lions +7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I just can’t get the timing right with the Lions. They’ve laid their share of eggs, with six of their ten losses coming by 8+ points. But they seem to line those up with the games where I think they’ll be feisty, and then decide to hang tough when I pick their opponent like I have the past few weeks. I’m hoping this is the streak-ender. Minnesota can throw all over Detroit’s 28th-ranked pass defense, and while the Vikings aren’t great on defense, they shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping the Lions under 20 points like all but one of Detroit’s opponents have this season. Vikings -7
Houston Texans +9 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I like Tyrod Taylor a lot, but Houston is decidedly overmatched in this one. Indianapolis is the better team across the board, and the Texans’ defensive splits don’t look good for a team trying to stop Jonathan Taylor. Houston is a shocking 6th against the pass, and just 25th against the run. It’s possible they’ve seen so many negative game scripts that they haven’t had to deal with passing offenses really trying to move the ball, but they’ve faced plenty of run plays and struggled to stop them all. With Indy’s defense playing well of late, double digits isn’t asking too much. Colts -9
New York Jets +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I picked the wrong week to believe in the Eagles! Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia made me look foolish in their 13-7 loss to the Giants last week, the first time since Week 2 they’ve failed to reach 20 points. The Jets and their 30th-ranked run defense should give the Eagles a great chance to get back on track, and whoever lines up under center for the Jets won’t have many weapons to work with. I know the line seems large, but if the Eagles can get out to a two-score lead, they can salt the game away on the ground. Eagles -7
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I just can’t bring myself to believe fully in the Bengals after watching them get shredded by the Jets and Browns in Weeks 8 and 9. They’ve looked great since the bye week with two big wins over the Raiders and Steelers, but the Chargers are much better on offense than either of those teams. The Bengals should be able to run the ball well all game, but I’m not sure they can slow down Justin Herbert and co. if they get going. Even if Cincy wins, I think it will be a close one. Chargers +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Since their Week 8 bye, the Raiders have lost to the New York Giants at home, been obliterated by the Chiefs and Bengals, and of course jumped out to an early lead and won an overtime game against the Cowboys. Their defense hasn’t been stopping anyone, but they’ll have the benefit of going against a mediocre Washington offensive line. The Football Team has won three straight, but they and Taylor Heinicke are due for some regression. I think it happens this week. Raiders -2.5
Los Angeles Rams -13.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Matthew Stafford looks injured, the Rams’ defense isn’t forcing the kind of mistakes they need to thrive, and they’ve now lost three straight games by a combined 41 points. They need to get back on track in a big way here, and the Jags are an easy path to that. Jacksonville hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 6, they can’t get after the quarterback, and they have no offensive weapons to make big plays. If the Rams are a conference contender, they’ll win this one running away. Rams -13.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Yuck, which team do I like least? Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game by more than one score all season, and Baltimore has squeaked by the Vikings, Bears, and Browns to reach 8-3. I don’t feel good picking this game one way or the other, but I like 4.5 points if it’s going to be a close one. With Pittsburgh at home, let’s go with the points. Steelers +4.5
Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I would feel a lot better about the 49ers on offense if Deebo Samuel was going to play this week, but I’m hoping Brandon Aiyuk can fill some of the playmaking void. Seattle is an absolute mess, and San Francisco should be able to generate consistent pressure with their defensive line. In past years I would love to get Seattle with points at home, but I think that version of the Seahawks might be gone for good. 49ers -3
Buffalo Bills -3 vs. New England Patriots
The game of the week is lined up for Monday Night Football. Buffalo is third in DVOA and New England is second. The Patriots are up by half a game in the division, but these teams will meet again in Week 16. We had some big questions about the Bills after two disappointing performance against the Jaguars and Colts, but they seemed to bounce back in a big way for their win over the Saints on Thanksgiving. Now they’ve had a bit longer to rest and gameplan, and they’ll be facing a rookie quarterback traveling to Buffalo for the first time. New England has the personnel and the coaching to grind this game out and keep it close, but I think the Bills will have a bit more success getting touchdowns instead of field goals and come out with the win. Bills -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
