2021 NFL Picks Week 17: Penultimate Picks
Another successful week in the books (that’s four in a row) and I’m starting to think we’re due for regression. We don’t have any Thursday Night game this week to start things off on a bad foot, but we still have COVID cases popping up everywhere and Rex Burkhead rushing for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns to keep things interesting. This week’s slate features four lines of 10+ points and five home underdogs; let’s see if anyone can shake things up in the playoff race!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have shown some pluck and comeback ability over the course of the season, but neither will be enough in this game. They’ve won three of their last five games, but somehow they’ve only scored 20+ points once since their bye in Week 8. Indianapolis should be getting the core of their offensive line back, and they need this game to stay in the playoff mix. The Colts are built to get a lead and grind games like this into two-score victories. Colts -6.5
Buffalo Bills -14.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is dead last in DVOA and just on the outside of the playoff picture in the NFC. Their seven wins have come against the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Jaguars, Panthers, and Lions, by a combined 33 points. When they’ve played teams ranked in the top 11 in DVOA (Eagles, Bucs twice, Cowboys, Patriots, 49ers) they’ve lost by an average of 24.2 points per game. The Bills rank third in DVOA, and we just need them to cover 14.5. Bills -14.5
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Tennessee should win this game. They’re at home, DVOA gives them a slight edge, and Miami’s seven-game win streak is mostly built on the dregs of the league. I’m just not very excited about what the Titans are bringing to the table at this point. The 49ers should have covered against them last week, but instead they let A.J. Brown explode in the second half while Jimmy G threw the ball to the wrong team. Miami has the secondary to keep the former from happening, and if Tua can avoid catastrophic mistakes, we should be in for a close finish. Dolphins +3.5
Dallas Cowboys -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The sentiment may have swung a bit too far on these two teams over the past few weeks. Dallas has looked great, especially on defense, but their last game against a semi-competent offense was a 36-33 loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving. Arizona has lost three straight, but last week’s game against the Colts may have been tied if they hadn’t been forced into an emergency holder situation for field goals and extra points. I need to see the Cowboys’ offense look strong against a real defense before I count on them to win big against fellow playoff teams. Cardinals +6
Washington Football Team +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I’m ready to stick a fork in Washington. They lost to the Eagles by 10 just a couple weeks ago, their defense is bad overall and middling against the run, and they’re only getting three points here. Philadelphia is solid on both sides of the ball and should be able to cover a field goal. Eagles -3
Cincinnati Bengals +5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I’ve been very impressed with Joe Burrow this year, but the Bengals still have a lot of problems. Their pass protection is suspect, their offense ranks just 19th despite the Burrow-Chase connection, and their defense is middling. The Chiefs are getting things rolling again, and if their pass rush can get home on Burrow, we’ll be looking at a blowout. Chiefs -5
New York Jets +13 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ahh, the Jets. A team with seven 14+ point losses on the season already facing Tom Brady and a Bucs’ team happy to keep their foot on the gas. I’m a little surprised this line isn’t the full 14, but maybe I’m overlooking the special teams advantage for New York. I’m more confident in Brady boosting his MVP case than a big play there making things close. Buccaneers -13
New Orleans Saints -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
It looks like Ian Book will be handing QB duties back to Taysom Hill, but how high does that really raise the Saints’ offensive ceiling? Carolina can still play defense well, and they just beat the Saints by 19 a few months ago. New Orleans should absolutely win, but I’m a long way from predicting any comfortable wins for such a limited offense. Panthers +6.5
New England Patriots -16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This line is way too high. The Patriots don’t have an explosive offense, which means they’ll need a near-shutout to cover this kind of spread. On the other side of the ball, we get to see New England’s third-ranked defense go against Trevor Lawrence and an offense who didn’t know how to call two plays at once at the end of their game against the Jets and instead wasted a down spiking the ball. I’ll feel way dumber watching the Pats return their second interception for a touchdown in the second quarter than I will if the Jags make things interesting late in the game. Patriots -16
Chicago Bears -6 vs. New York Giants
Mike Glennon returns to Soldier Field! The Bears once signed Glennon to a three-year, $45 million contract. It was absurd at the time, and feels even more absurd now. None of the Bears’ players have a reason to seek revenge in this game, but they won’t need it against a Giants’ team ranked 30th in offensive DVOA and losing five of their last six games by double-digits. Maybe this is the week Justin Fields finally goes off and gets a comfortable win. Bears -6
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
So the team who just lost to the Texans is now facing a Denver team ranked 11th in rushing DVOA who beat them by 15 points about a month ago. And they’re favored by nearly a touchdown? A 21.5 point swing seems like an exaggeration of the drop-off from Teddy Bridgewater to Drew Lock, especially if the Broncos are content to run the ball and lock up the Chargers’ offense as they generally have over the past couple of years. Broncos +6.5
San Francisco 49ers -12.5 vs. Houston Texans
I went back and forth on this one a couple times, but eventually decided the line should probably be a full 14 to reflect the gap between teams. Houston has looked good two weeks in a row against the Jaguars and a banged-up Chargers squad. They were also stomped in the two games before that by a combined 64-13 score. The current makeup of this San Francisco team, with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Nick Bosa all healthy more closely resembles the Colts or a superior Seahawks team than either of Houston’s victims of the past two weeks. 49ers -12.5
Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. Detroit Lions
Repeat after me: the Seahawks are not good. If Russell Wilson isn’t running the ball to take advantage of defenses with their backs turned (which he’s not), Seattle loses the only explosive element their offense has had over the past few seasons. Detroit is still playing tough against everyone they face, and Jared Goff is no stranger to playing against a Pete Carroll defense. Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to a last-minute field goal. Lions +7
Baltimore Ravens +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Ravens have endured too many injuries in their secondary to remain competitive into the playoffs, but something still seems a little off about the Rams. They covered against the Vikings last week, which I appreciated greatly, but they had to overcome three ugly interceptions from Matt Stafford to do so. If a healthy Tyler Huntley is under center for Baltimore, they could do just enough on offense and special teams to keep things interesting at home. I’m happy to get more than a field goal here. Ravens +4.5
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I will not pick the Packers to cover a touchdown against a team they’ve already lost to once this season after watching them blow big leads to the Ravens and Browns in consecutive weeks. Something is seriously wrong with the Green Bay defense, and their offense does a strange disappearing act in the middle of games. Great potential for a backdoor cover here. Vikings +7
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I was so excited to see the Browns reach midfield against the Packers last week needing just a field goal to win. They were just a couple of Nick Chubb runs away from making the race for the NFC’s top seed interesting, so of course they threw three straight times, ending in an interception. Pittsburgh isn’t great, but it’s weird to see them getting more than a field goal at home against a team incapable of passing the ball. Steelers +3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
