2021 NFL Picks Week 18: How Hard Can You Shrug?
The final week of the season is always tricky, with widely varying levels of motivation between teams and lame duck coaches and quarterbacks playing out the string. COVID contributes even more chaos to the proceedings; big names like Micah Parsons, Joe Mixon, and Shaquil Barrett are all set to miss their games. It doesn’t mean it won’t be fun, though! Hold on to your butts, and take a hop, skip, and a jump of faith with me into our Week 18 picks.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Denver Broncos +11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Eleven points is a big line for the home team, but Denver has looked terrible with Drew Lock filling in for Teddy Bridgewater. Kansas City probably should have won their game against Cincinnati last week, and they need a win here to keep their chance at a bye week alive. The Broncos might be able to slow down the Chiefs’ offense, but they don’t have a Burrow-Chase connection to keep things interesting when they have the ball. Chiefs -11
Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs. Dallas Cowboys
It looks like the Cowboys plan to play many of their starters, but it’s hard to guess how long they’ll be in the game. They have the NFC East sewn up, so moving between their current 4 seed and the 2 seed doesn’t make much of a difference. Philadelphia, of course, has also clinched a playoff berth and has little to play for along with a long list of players (Fletcher Cox and Dallas Goedert included) in COVID protocols. The Cowboys are the top team in DVOA, and if motivation and player availability is a wash, they should win by a touchdown. Cowboys -4
Cleveland Browns -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland’s last big win came in Week 9 against the Bengals, when they coasted to a 41-16 win and a 5-4 record. Things haven’t gone so well since then, but the Browns are built to move the ball against teams like Cincinnati. The Bengals will be resting Joe Burrow, and big names like Joe Mixon and Trey Hendrickson are in COVID protocols. This is a great chance for a meaningless statement win from the Browns. Browns -6
Buffalo Bills -16 vs. New York Jets
I came into this week fully expecting to pick the Bills. Last season, Buffalo had nothing to gain in their Week 17 game against the Dolphins but still threw up 56 points. The Jets have very little going for them on defense, but they’ve been surprisingly feisty in recent weeks. I don’t think there’s any way they win this game, but getting a garbage time score to close the gap to 14 is well within their reach. Jets +16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 vs. Carolina Panthers
Neither team here has much to play for, but Tampa Bay might want to continue building up steam for their playoff run, at least in the first half. Narrowly escaping the Jets and then resting against the Panthers doesn’t feel like the vibe you want to end the regular season. Carolina has lost six straight games, including a 32-6 loss to Tampa Bay just two weeks ago. Things shouldn’t be terribly different this time around. Buccaneers -8
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta no longer has a chance of making the playoffs, but they love making things difficult for their division rivals. New Orleans needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they’ve only scored 20+ points once with Taysom Hill as their starter this year, in a 30-9 win over the Jets in Week 14. I expect the Falcons to get to 17, so I’ll take the points. Falcons +3.5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Neither team has anything to play for this week, but Detroit has been in that situation since midseason. Green Bay will be rolling Jordan Love out onto the field for the first time since his disastrous start against the Chiefs in Week 9. We’ll take the home team, playing harder and getting points. Lions +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis should absolutely win this game in a rout. They need the win to clinch a playoff spot, they’re better on both sides of the ball, and they have a real NFL coach. But Jacksonville has made things difficult for the Colts in recent matchups, splitting their last four games and losing by 14 points in the worst outcome. All we need to see is a bad Carson Wentz interception to keep this line in play, and I think the Colts will be hesitant to run Jonathan Taylor into the ground if they get a comfortable lead, meaning more punts and less explosive clock burning. Jaguars +15
Houston Texans +10.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Similar to the other AFC South matchup, Houston has hung close with Tennessee in each of their last three meetings. I don’t have a logical explanation for it, but Lovie Smith should be able to limit the big plays Tennessee lives on offensively. Add in a little Davis Mills stat-padding, and you have a game that might stay interesting into the fourth quarter. Texans +10.5
Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Neither team has anything to play for, but the Bears can always make it more difficult to move on from Matt Nagy by winning here and finishing the season on a three-game winning streak. These teams were close in their Week 15 matchup when Chicago was missing their entire secondary, so hopefully this one provides some back-and-forth entertainment. Bears +5.5
Miami Dolphins +6.5 vs. New England Patriots
I’m not happy about it, but I think I’m taking Miami here to make things difficult for the Patriots. They’ve been doing it for a long time, and Brian Flores is now 2-1 in his career against New England. The Pats have averaged just over 16 points per game in those contests. The Dolphins could absolutely lay an egg on offense and lose 20-0, but I’m expecting more of a back-and-forth, field-position type of battle, and I can get almost a touchdown with them. Dolphins +6.5
New York Giants +7 vs. Washington Football Team
I’m very biased by Joe Judge’s bonkers press conference after their embarrassing loss to the Bears last week, but if I have to go out picking against Jake Fromm, so be it. Football Team -7
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
More than a field goal for the Ravens here, which is a bit surprising given their three-game losing streak against the Steelers and five-game losing streak coming into this game. Baltimore has only won four games by more than a field goal this season, and three of those came before their Week 8 bye. Pittsburgh isn’t pretty, but they’ve managed to muck things up against almost every team they’ve played this year. Both teams need a win to keep playoff hopes alive, so we’ll take the 3.5. Steelers +3.5
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The big question here is how much of San Francisco’s already-suspect secondary will be able to play. They currently have four DBs in COVID protocols, and they’ve struggled to cover wide receivers all season. Of course, a big exception would be the Week 10 matchup between these two teams when the Niners cruised to a 31-10 win and held Matthew Stafford to 243 passing yards. Kyle Shanahan is working some kind of magic against the Sean McVay Rams, and I don’t see the script flipping dramatically this time around. 49ers +4.5
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
A true win-and-in game for both teams. I can’t believe the Raiders are still alive, but three straight wins by 4 points or less has them knocking on the door. Unfortunately for them, the Chargers seem to be healthy at exactly the right time. Austin Ekeler, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Mike Williams are all expected to play this week, and the Chargers have been the better team all season. Hopefully Justin Herbert can help eliminate some bad memories for their fans this week. Chargers -3
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
DVOA has these teams much closer than I would have guessed, and I’m not overly impressed by Seattle’s drubbing of the Lions last week. Arizona should present a much stiffer challenge, but 5.5 points feels a bit too steep if Russell Wilson is throwing moonballs to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Cards should win, but I don’t think Seattle will roll over. Seahawks +5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
