2021 NFL Picks Week 3: Emotional Hedging
It wasn’t pretty, but with Green Bay’s big win over the Lions on Monday, we managed our first winning week of the season. I didn’t like all of the half points on these lines (see: Panthers, Cardinals, Browns, Broncos), but at least Carolina made short work of Davis Mills on Thursday night. Let’s see who else can come through for us in Week 3.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Houston Texans +7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I think it’s still fair to wonder just how real this Panthers team is, but Tyrod Taylor was the only thing making Houston competitive. Giving single digits here didn’t seem too scary, and it felt comfortable almost all game. Panthers -7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s Cardinals’ performance against the Vikings was more in line with preseason expectations than their Week 1 demolition of Tennessee. Some great Kyler Murray moments, some confounding Kyler Murray moments, and no real secondary to cover deep shots when the pass rush isn’t given a free pass. Of course, the Vikings are better on offense and defense than the Jaguars, and they were able to keep things close from the jump. Arizona should move the ball better in this game, and once they can unleash their pass rush on rookie Trevor Lawrence, they can comfortably extend their lead. Cardinals -7.5
New York Giants -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
These are the games that make me regret choosing to make a pick for every game. Atlanta can’t block anyone, but the Giants only have three sacks through two games. Daniel Jones is one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks of the modern era, but the Falcons don’t have playmakers on defense. New York could probably run the ball down Atlanta’s throat, but they’re managing Saquon Barkley’s touches very carefully. I don’t really like either team, and no obvious mismatches stand out, so I’m taking the points and keeping this game off-screen. Falcons +3
Detroit Lions +8.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Detroit has looked feisty in two losses thus far, but they have lost both games. Baltimore is not the type of team to give up a backdoor cover; in the last two seasons, they’ve won eighteen games by double-digit points. Even with a healthy lead, their defense will play aggressively and force continued mistakes from Jared Goff, and no one on the Detroit defense will be slowing down Lamar Jackson. Don’t overthink this one. Ravens -8.5
Cleveland Browns -7.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields came into last week’s game against Cincinnati and did just enough to not lose the game. It was dicey, but he also had a few beautiful throws his receivers should have caught. Of course, his offensive line and receivers aren’t getting any better this season. The same team that looked stuck in mud against the Bengals has to generate more than 13 offensive points to cover the spread here. Cleveland will run the ball effectively and ice the game once they get the lead, and the Bears still have too much to figure out. If I’m wrong, at least I’ll get to watch the best Bears QB of my lifetime! Browns -7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati needed significant help to make things competitive against the Bears, and Pittsburgh is a supercharged version of Chicago. Their defense is better, their offense has the same issues but better gamebreakers in Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool, and their coaching staff does a better job than Matt Nagy and Co. The Bengals have played the Steelers tough a couple times in recent years, but I like Pittsburgh at home. Steelers -3
Tennessee Titans -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This one is largely dependent on if Carson Wentz plays and if either of his two sprained ankles significantly limits him. Unless I’m missing something major, Jacob Eason is not an NFL-caliber quarterback, and the Titans really need a break after opening up against Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Tennessee seems content to hand the ball to Derrick Henry until the other team surrenders, and I’m not ready to count on Jonathan Taylor to keep pace on the other side. Titans -5
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs defense is too bad for me to like them covering large spreads. The Chargers haven’t been as dynamic offensively as I expected, but they’ve also been sloppy. If they clean up some of their easy penalty issues, Justin Herbert can make all the throws they need to reach the 30s. Kansas City might win, but there’s way too much potential for an upset or a backdoor cover with this line. Chargers +6.5
New England Patriots -3 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints really got me last week, and now they travel up to New England to take on Bill Belichick. I would be a bit more concerned if the Patriots had more than just Belichick to throw at their opponent. Sure, the Patriots covered easily against the Jets last week, but Mac Jones hasn’t been asked to stretch the field at all and he’s looked like the rookie he is through two starts. Now he faces a tough New Orleans defense, and I don’t think Sean Payton will let Jameis Winston throw four interceptions like Zach Wilson did. I think we’ll see an old-fashioned rock fight, and if we do, I like the three extra points. Saints +3
Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Washington’s defense has really underwhelmed so far, but the same can be said for Buffalo’s offense. Even in their 35-0 victory over the Dolphins last week, Josh Allen only threw for 179 yards on 33 attempts. I don’t think the Football Team will produce fireworks with Taylor Heinecke at QB, but they can move the ball with some consistency. If Washington can sit back and make the Bills’ offense be patient, this one will stay close until the end. Football Team +7.5
Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas has now played two tough defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and they’ve been able to reach the high 20s in regulation of both games. The Dolphins also have a strong defense, but I have serious questions about their offense whether Tua or Jacoby Brissett is leading the way. They need to control the game and limit the Raiders’ possessions in order to come away with a win here, and I don’t think either quarterback is up to the task. Raiders -4
Denver Broncos -10.5 vs. New York Jets
No rest for the weary Zach Wilson here. Denver’s offense looks good with Teddy Bridgewater throwing the ball to his talented receiving corps, Vic Fangio is every bit as excited to face a rookie QB as Bill Belichick is, and the Jets just don’t have anyone scary on offense. I think this one will seem close through the first half but turn into a home rout in the third quarter. Broncos -10.5
Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
One week after struggling to contain Kyler Murray, Minnesota gets to deal with Russell Wilson. They desperately need to win this game, but Seattle has owned the Vikings in recent years. Dalvin Cook might be a little banged up, and all signs point to this being one more step in the implosion of the Kirk Cousins era. Seahawks -1
Los Angeles Rams -1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one was driving me crazy all week. I feel like I should be taking the rare opportunity to pick Tom Brady as an underdog, but something about the Tampa Bay defense just isn’t sitting right after two weeks. The Rams know how to play defense against this team, and Stafford raises their offensive ceiling to a place where this could become a shootout. If I’m expecting both teams to have success on offense, I like the playmaking I get from the Rams’ defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Rams -1
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Green Bay Packers
San Francisco should be able to calmly run the ball against the Packers and put Aaron Rodgers into a bad game script much like they have in recent matchups and like the Saints did in Week 1. Of course, the 49ers can’t seem to keep a running back healthy even after they decide which running back they like most that week, and Jimmy Garoppolo has left much to be desired through two games. If San Francisco is going to cover, they’ll need a few of Kyle Shanahan’s trademark explosive plays. I don’t trust Jimmy G to make enough of them. Packers +3
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Is the Eagles defense really good? And, if so, does it matter against a Cowboys offense with so many weapons? These teams have traded convincing home wins over their last four meetings, and I think the pattern will continue here. Dallas is fully healthy on offense, which means the Eagles will have to ask more of Jalen Hurts than they have so far this year. I think it’s asking too much. Cowboys -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
