2021 NFL Picks Week 4: Hoping Against Harbingers
Last week we got off to a good start with an easy Thursday Night Football win, and success continued through the weekend to a fantastic 11-5 finish. This week’s much-ballyhooed Bengals-Jaguars showdown? Eh, not so much. Hopefully our Thursday Night Football picks don’t always set the tone for the weekend. Let’s do Week 4!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
My error here was being excited to pick almost any spread against Urban Meyer. Giving more than a touchdown was too much, and I’m not sure Zac Taylor gave Cincy much of a coaching edge anyway. At least it was surprisingly entertaining? Bengals -7.5
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Both teams have been unexpectedly solid on defense this season, but the Cowboys have way more weapons on offense even when Christian McCaffrey is healthy. He’s not, but I think Carolina’s defense is going to keep things close much like the Chargers did two weeks ago. I don’t like counting on Sam Darnold to reach 25+ points, but 4.5 is too much to pass up in a game between comparable teams. Panthers +4.5
Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Minnesota’s offense has been steady all season; they’re ninth in offensive DVOA, and the 24 points they scored against Cincinnati in Week 1 was their lowest output of the season. I just don’t like the matchup they have to deal with on the other side of the ball, where their 27th-ranked rush defense is going to be tasked with slowing down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Vikings will need to take control of this game early to prevent the Browns from grinding them down with their run game, and I don’t trust Kirk Cousins enough to play mistake-free. Browns -1
Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The Chicago Bears are averaging 11.0 offensive points per game this season. If they have another average performance, I just need 8 from the Lions. Seriously, though, the Lions have kept games interesting against the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens. I haven’t seen anything from Chicago to suggest they’re in the same league as those teams, and Matt Nagy doesn’t give me hope for a radical awakening this week. Lions +3.5
Buffalo Bills -16.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I never enjoy hoping for a team to cover a three-score spread, but this is the right matchup for it. Buffalo is starting to settle into a groove, Houston is stuck starting Davis Mills, and there shouldn’t be any weird travel or preparation variables with the game in Buffalo. There’s always backdoor cover potential, but I won’t be sweating too much watching the Houston offense. Bills -16.5
Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Miami has one of the better and more experienced backup quarterbacks in the league in Jacoby Brissett, and their defense still ranks a solid 7th in DVOA. I thought Frank Reich had a chance to get something good from Carson Wentz this year, but Wentz might just be cursed. Unless this is the game where Jonathan Taylor really breaks out, I like the Dolphins to win at home. Dolphins -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I was lucky enough to get this line before Philadelphia was trounced by Dallas on Monday, but I don’t think the new line of 7 would have changed my pick. The Eagles looked great against the Falcons in Week 1, and that just isn’t worth much with what we’ve seen from Atlanta since. Kansas City is coming off two consecutive losses and needs to bounce back in a big way. Mahomes won’t be taking any prisoners, and the Eagles aren’t capable of airing it out. Chiefs -5.5
New Orleans Saints -8.5 vs. New York Giants
Surprisingly, the Giants have been better on offense (14th) than defense (23rd) so far this season. I think their offense will take a big hit this week, though, as Daniel Jones heads to New Orleans to face the Saints’ 3rd-ranked defense. New Orleans will invite plenty of mistakes from Daniel Jones, and I’m not banking on the guy who hires Jason Garrett and bashes analytics to outwit Sean Payton. Saints -8.5
New York Jets +7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I have no idea which way to go on this one. If Zach Wilson is going to look good against anyone this season, the Titans’ defense can be the anyone. They’re 22nd against the pass and 29th against the run, so the Jets should be able to improve on their 6.7 offensive points per game this week. The Jets’ defense is middling against the run and the pass, but I don’t think middling will get the job done against Derrick Henry. I think Tennessee wins pretty easily, and I’m just too skeptical of Wilson to worry about the extra half point. Titans -7.5
Atlanta Falcons -1 vs. Washington Football Team
The Falcons are favored? The Falcons are favored! Taylor Heinecke might be a more dynamic quarterback than Matt Ryan at this point, and while Washington’s defense has underperformed, they at least had reason for expectations. I haven’t seen anything to like in Atlanta, so I’m happy to get a point and a decent team going against them. Football Team +1
Los Angeles Rams -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has been a blast to watch this season, but they’re going up against a better team with a better coach here. Even a great defensive performance from the Cardinals might not be enough to slow down this version of the Rams’ offense. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are going to demand more from Arizona than Kyler Murray Improv Hour. The Rams have beaten the Cardinals eight consecutive times by at least one touchdown. I’m expecting a ninth on Sunday. Rams -6
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
There’s just something I don’t like about the 49ers offense this season. Maybe it’s the weird usage levels of their running backs and receivers, maybe it’s Jimmy G’s handsome face looking uncomfortable most of the time, or maybe it’s just the lack of deep shots I expected to see from a Kyle Shanahan offense. Whatever it is, they haven’t looked sharp since the first half of their game against the Lions, and they’ll need to get right to keep up with Russell Wilson this week. In the last five meetings between these two teams, Seattle has scored 134 points to San Francisco’s 126. If it’s close again, I want the points. Seahawks +2.5
Denver Broncos -1.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I wanted to take the Ravens here, but I think they’ve just sustained too many injuries. Denver’s defense is talented and well-coached, so I don’t think Baltimore will improve dramatically on their 25.7 points per game this season. The Broncos look good with Teddy Bridgewater under center, and the Ravens’ defense is quietly 20th in DVOA right now. I would have expected a line closer to the standard home 3, so let’s enjoy the “extra” 1.5. Broncos -1.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger is cooked, and while the Packers haven’t really found a rhythm on offense yet, I expect it’s just a matter of time. Even if the Steelers’ defense is healthier this week, they’ll need to be lights-out to make up for such an anemic offense. If Aaron Rodgers can get out to a fast start, Green Bay can press up on Pittsburgh’s short passes and make quick work of this one. I like this line with the game in Green Bay. Packers -6.5
New England Patriots +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is a whole lot of respect for Bill Belichick baked into this line. I know the guy is a legend, but New England needed worlds of help to break 20 points against the Jets, and they haven’t reached 20 in either of their other games. Unless they’ve been holding Mac Jones back a LOT with this game in mind, there’s no way they’ll be keeping up with Tom Brady and a Buccaneers’ offense averaging 30 points per game. Not giving a full touchdown here feels too easy, which probably means I’m very wrong. Buccaneers -6
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It doesn’t seem like people are ready to accept the Raiders as a quality team, but I’m happy to pick them in the meantime. Las Vegas is tied with the Buccaneers at 30 offensive points per game, and the Chargers needed to play the Chiefs to get past 20 points for the first time. Justin Herbert is great, but something isn’t clicking quite right for the Chargers’ offense just yet. Until it does, let’s take the Raiders and the points. Raiders +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
