2021 NFL Picks Week 5: Testing the Wests
The NFC and AFC Wests are a combined 22-10 heading into Week 5, but the Chiefs are just 2-2 and the Rams looked rough one week after their big win against Tampa Bay. Arizona is the only unbeaten team remaining, but they were a 37-yard field goal away from losing to the Vikings. They might be the best divisions top-to-bottom, but are the best teams in the league somewhere else?
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Seattle Seahawks +1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Off to a good start after Thursday, when my biggest concern was Matthew Stafford’s hand. He didn’t look perfect, but he did enough to get a win against a bizarro version of the Seahawks who got similar stat lines out of Russell Wilson (11/16, 1 TD, 1 INT) and Geno Smith (10/17, 1 TD, 1 INT). The Rams have better personnel everywhere that isn’t wide receiver, and the 2021 version of Cooper Kupp makes even that conversation interesting. Big bounce-back win for the team I still think is the best in the NFC. Rams -1
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. New York Jets
Hey look, the Falcons are favored again! And the game is being played in London, so none of those points are for a home field advantage! I know the Jets aren’t very good, but have we seen anything from Atlanta to feel good about picking them as neutral-field favorites? At least the Jets might be average on defense. Jets +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers EVEN vs. Denver Broncos
This one is highly dependent on Teddy Bridgewater’s availability; I want nothing to do with Drew Lock going against the Steelers’ defense. If Teddy is playing, the Broncos should be able to put together a few drives on offense, and their defense must be salivating over Pittsburgh’s offensive “highlights”. Vic Fangio likes to be aggressive, and Roethlisberger can’t or won’t throw the ball deep. I like the Broncos straight up. Broncos to Win
Minnesota Vikings -8 vs. Detroit Lions
Minnesota should win this game by a lot. They’re at home, they’re getting their first chance at an easy opponent all season, and their defense can bring the kind of pressure Jared Goff is known to hate. The Lions have shown a lot of fight this season and almost bounced back to cover against the Bears last week, but at some point they’re going to get waxed. I think the time has come. Vikings -8
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Cincy has been surprisingly good on defense this year, but this will be their first test against a top-tier offense. I would like this line even more if it didn’t have the extra half point sitting on it, but I believe in Aaron Rodgers, who has looked better each week since their opening-day disaster against New Orleans. Green Bay is going to reach 30 points and their defense will force Joe Burrow into some mistakes as the game goes that way. Packers -3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 vs. Miami Dolphins
I could see this going two ways. In one scenario, a worn-out Tampa Bay team coming off a hard-fought game in New England plays a little sloppy, a depleted secondary gives up some easy plays to the Dolphins, and the Bucs narrowly escape with a win or lose by a field goal. In the other, Tampa Bay’s offense clicks on all cylinders back in their home stadium and out of the driving rain and Jacoby Brissett can’t get anything going for Miami’s offense yet again. I don’t know if the latter scenario is more likely, but I feel okay counting on a big day from Tom Brady. Buccaneers -10
Houston Texans +9 vs. New England Patriots
Davis Mills is still playing quarterback for the Texans, right? I thought Mac Jones was really impressive in last week’s game against a relentless Buccaneers’ pass rush, and Houston shouldn’t present much of a challenge on that side of the ball. Unless Belichick is taking a week off after throwing everything he could think of at Tom Brady, the Pats should get the 24 points they need to cover this spread. Patriots -9
Washington Football Team +1 vs. New Orleans Saints
Washington is sneakily good on offense, and mixing a good defensive line with Jameis Winston is a scary proposition. Still, the Saints are the better all-around team and they can’t afford to slip under .500 with their schedule and the division they’re in. I think we might have a bit of a slugfest, but it’s one the Saints should win. Saints -1
Carolina Panthers -4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles aren’t good, are they? They’ve only looked competent on offense against Atlanta and Kansas City, two teams with defenses far worse than Carolina’s. The Panthers let the game get away from them in Dallas last week, but the Cowboys might have the best offense in the league. Asking Carolina to cover a hair more than the standard home spread doesn’t feel like much. Panthers -4
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Ick. I don’t have much to like about either of these teams beyond Derrick Henry, but I have a lot to dislike about the Jaguars. It took Urban Meyer all of four weeks to hit a form of rock bottom that involves passing on the team flight home in favor of shenanigans, and I can’t imagine such conduct is going to motivate his team to perform on the field. Trevor Lawrence is going to look good, but I don’t think he can do enough to keep this one close. Titans -4
Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 vs. Chicago Bears
The Raiders are well-suited to expose the Chicago defense as more middle-of-the-pack than top-10. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Justin Fields so far, but the Bears’ offense is a few pieces and a new coach away from putting on any kind of offensive demonstration. Las Vegas could surprise me and struggle enough offensively to leave this game in doubt into the fourth quarter, but I think it’s more likely they’re killing clock midway through the third. Raiders -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers -2 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chargers have looked great with two big divisional wins in a row, but I don’t like the way they match up with the Browns. Baker Mayfield has looked bad to start the season, but the scheme Brandon Staley brought to Los Angeles (from the other Los Angeles) dares offenses to run the ball consistently. Cleveland has no qualms about doing just that with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt behind a strong offensive line. The Chargers certainly have the talent to win this game handily, but I want to see some more consistency before I pick them to cover against another top team built like the Browns. Browns +2
Dallas Cowboys -7.5 vs. New York Giants
I will not believe in Daniel Jones. I don’t know how the Saints left Saquon Barkley so wide open late in their game last week, and I don’t know how the Giants scored so many points against Washington two weeks ago, but I’m not counting on Daniel Jones to do anything correctly, drive after drive. He’ll need to do just that if he wants to keep things close with this Dallas team, whose offense is spectacular to watch and hasn’t struggled against any defense they’ve faced so far. Cowboys -7.5
Arizona Cardinals -5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
It sounds like Trey Lance will be starting for the 49ers this week, but he didn’t look ready in his relief appearance against the Seahawks. Arizona is coming off a huge win and could be primed for a letdown, but I think they have enough veterans on both sides of the ball to take care of business when they have an easy opportunity. At home, against a rookie QB. making his first start is a great spot to do just that. Cardinals -5
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Buffalo Bills
A rare opportunity with Patrick Mahomes giving just the standard home line. Unfortunately, the Kansas City defense is terrible this year, and Buffalo should be able to go back-and-forth in a way they couldn’t in last year’s playoffs meeting. I can’t imagine Mahomes falling to 2-3, but I also can’t imagine the Chiefs blowing anyone out when they’re giving up 30 points to teams like the Eagles. Bills +3
Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Seven points seems like a lot for a team coming off a narrow win over the Lions and a two-score win over Drew Lock. I want to pick the Colts after a strong performance in Miami last week, but it would mean watching an injured Carson Wentz go after an aggressive Ravens’ defense in primetime. I kind of hope I’m wrong, but I’m not ready to bet on it. Ravens -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
