2022 NFL Picks Conference Championships: Quality of Competition
Three of our four semi-finalists are back from last season, highlighted by the AFC Championship rematch between the Chiefs and the Bengals. Only the Eagles are a new addition to the NFL’s final four, and they come in with the best record (14-3) and second-best point differential of our remaining teams. Philadelphia also looks remarkably healthy, with Jalen Hurts assuaging some concerns over his shoulder in a big win over the Giants last week; the Chiefs have a gimpy Patrick Mahomes, the Bengals might be down more than half of their offensive line, and the Niners are on their third quarterback of the season. Let’s dig into each matchup to find out who we expect to see in the Super Bowl!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Eagles come into this game as the NFL’s best team after a 14-3 regular season and a 38-7 throttling of the Giants in the Divisional Round. Or, wait…are the 49ers the best team? They finished 13-4, but had a better point differential (+173 to +133), beat more playoff teams (7 to 6), and come into this matchup on a 12-game win streak. Of course, San Francisco has Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy under center, who was forced into action after injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Philadelphia comes in with a late second round pick, Jalen Hurts, running the show in his second season. The Niners have a scarily fast pass rush led by Nick Bosa, but the Eagles racked up a league-leading 70 sacks with great depth behind Haason Reddick’s team-best 16. So how do we pick who to go with here? Some of the media narrative has centered on the possibility of a Brock Purdy collapse as an unheralded rookie signal caller, but we haven’t seen him fall apart after early mistakes against the Seahawks or Cowboys so far. Jalen Hurts wasn’t exactly lights out against solid defenses like Washington, Indianapolis, or Dallas this season, and I’m not drooling over a blowout win against the happy-to-be-here Giants last week. Any experience advantage Hurts has should probably be balanced against everyone else on the roster. The 49ers were here in this round just last season, so most of their players are very ready for the moment. I’m very happy for the Eagles to have Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert, but it isn’t more intimidating than the Niners rolling out Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. I just don’t know what real tests the Eagles have faced this season They played Dallas (6th in DVOA) twice and split the games, but their next best opponents were the Lions (9th), Packers (12th), and Jaguars (13th). All three of those were one-score games. San Francisco, on the other hand, had to face the Chiefs (4th), Dolphins (8th), and Seahawks (10th) twice. The Chiefs crushed them as I mentioned earlier, but they won the other three games by a combined score of 81-37. Even if I can’t say the Niners are demonstrably better, I feel comfortable taking them with a full field goal when they’re the more battle-tested team in this matchup. 49ers +3
Kansas City Chiefs -1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs were 7-point favorites when these teams met in the Conference Championship last year, and it looked like we’d coast to an easy win after the first half. Patrick Mahomes was replaced by a much less dangerous doppelganger in the second half, though, and Cincy went on to play the Rams in the Super Bowl. We’ve seen some strange action on this line, as well; the Chiefs opened as 1-point favorites, swung to 2.5-point underdogs based on news about Mahomes’ ankle, and moved back to 1-point favorites as he participated fully in practice throughout the week. So now we’re a little stuck. If Mahomes was at the peak of his powers, I’d probably jump at the opportunity to take him as a 1-point favorite at home. Sure, the Bengals with Joe Burrow have beaten the Chiefs three times in a row, but all three games were only won by three points, and coin flips don’t go the same way every time across a large enough sample. If Mahomes is suffering from the same high ankle sprains we’ve seen knock players out of action or make them look like the high school versions of themselves, Bengals by 2.5 doesn’t feel big enough. The Chiefs have a great offensive scheme to go along with their quarterback, but his ability to extend plays and scramble has saved them in every close game they’ve played this season. But does Cincy deserve to be the underdog if Mahomes is anything less than 100%? They finished the season 12-4, 1.5 games behind Kansas City. They played in the AFC North, where the 7-10 Browns finished ahead of the bottom two teams in the AFC West. The Bengals are also riding a ten-game win streak including five wins against playoff teams, three by double digits. The Chiefs kind of feel like they peaked in their Week 7 demolition of the 49ers. It’s the best peak of any team this season, but since then they’re 4-1 against playoff teams with only two of those wins coming by double digits. Cincinnati has a better defense and better offensive weapons; the Chiefs have a better offensive line and a better quarterback. But the gap between Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow shrinks if Mahomes can’t scramble, and the Chiefs are only slightly better equipped to attack a weak offensive line than the Bills were. If the ankle injury is enough to bring Mahomes down to the mortal plane, I think Cincinnati has the overall advantage and should come out with another win in this rivalry. Bengals +1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
