2022 NFL Picks Super Bowl LVII: Like You've Been There Before
Only one of our two Conference Championship games lived up to the hype, but without an early injury to San Francisco’s third option at quarterback, we might have had two classics. Now we get to see Andy Reid square off against his old team and even some of his old players in a meeting of two top-5 teams by DVOA. Vegas is expecting a close game, and it’s hard to imagine a blowout unless Patrick Mahomes’ ankle hasn’t improved and the Eagles live in Kansas City’s backfield all day.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
At first glance, Philadelphia seems to have a big edge. Pairing the league’s 3rd-best offense with its 6th-best defense certainly sounds scarier than the Chiefs’ top-ranked offense and below-average defense. But numerical rankings don’t show gaps as clearly as their underlying numbers. The difference between Kansas City and Philadelphia on offense (10.1%) is nearly the same as that between the Eagles and 14th-ranked Seattle; in case you’d forgotten, Patrick Mahomes is really freaking good.
Of course, that isn’t to say the Eagles can’t gash even great defenses. They dropped 31 on the top-ranked Niners last week and averaged 30 points per game against #2 Dallas in two meetings this year. Their performance against the rest of the top-10 defenses isn’t as encouraging (10 points against New Orleans, 22.5 points per game against Washington), but they almost never have a hard time scoring. Jalen Hurts did a great job filling holes in his game this season, and highlights of their running game makes me nostalgic for high school offensive line drills. Every old hat making the media rounds will be happy to tell you defense wins championships and running the ball is the key to success in the playoffs, and no one can suggest Philadelphia is short of spectacular at either.
Kansas City’s defense was just okay by most metrics this season, but they’ve shown some real improvement since getting rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie back in the lineup in Week 9. Holding the Jaguars and the Bengals to 20 points each may not look as impressive as Philadelphia giving up 14 total points to the Giants and Niners, but we’ve already mentioned the Brock Purdy caveat, and I’d much rather face Daniel Jones than Trevor Lawrence. The Chiefs have certainly been steady, giving up 30+ points just once all season and holding opponents under 17 points just twice. Kansas City faced teams ranked in the top 10 for offensive DVOA 6 times; none scored 30 points, and only the Bengals got past 24.
The obvious matchup that will determine the outcome of this game is the Philadelphia pass rush (70 sacks, best adjusted sack rate in the league) against Mahomes, and, specifically, Mahomes’ ankle. If the league MVP is close to full strength and stays that way all game, he’ll be narrowly escaping most sacks and creating first downs with his legs and pocket movement in addition to his arm. If he looks like he did in the second half against Cincinnati, even the Chiefs’ strong offensive line will struggle to give him time and space all game long against Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham.
The other matchup I’ll be keeping an eye on is Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive game plan against the Eagles’ run game. If Kansas City can’t slow Philadelphia down on the ground, they’ll need a flawless offensive performance of their own to come out on top in a shootout. If, however, they can muck up the ground game and force Jalen Hurts to make plays through the air…all they need is a couple of stops to get ahead and stay there.
I think the tandem of Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo give the Chiefs a coaching edge coming into this game with two full weeks to prepare, but the Eagles have solid coaching of their own. Nick Sirianni has shown a great feel for in-game coaching, and I give him the advantage once the game starts. I’m positive I’ll be yelling at more than one decision from Reid, whether it’s punting instead of going for it or challenging an inconsequential play early in the game.
At the end of the day, these two teams are separated by the smallest of margins, which is why the line is so low. If both teams play up to their potential and stay healthy, we’re in for a memorable game. I just haven’t reached the point where I can trust Jalen Hurts on such a big stage yet, and I think Philadelphia is at a disadvantage because they haven’t faced much adversity all season long. It’s a little crazy, but their 13-1 start against largely bad teams (Dallas was without Dak Prescott in their first matchup) put them on cruise control even before Jalen Hurts got injured in their Week 15 matchup against the Bears. Last week would have been a great test, but without any evidence I’m just not willing to side with Hurts over Mahomes when the rest of their teams are so closely matched. Chiefs +1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
