2023 NFL Picks Week 1: Room for Improvement
Last Season: 131-142-3
This Week:
Something very bad has happened to the Football Outsiders website, which was my favorite source of football analytics and commentary. My preferred statistic, Aaron Schatz’s DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) lives on at FTN, but I might look into some new comparisons or creating custom statistics in case we run into more problems. Until then, we’ll get by with what we have, starting with the DVOA numbers from the end of last season - let’s get to the Week 1 lines!
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions
This line started at 6.5 and moved down to 4.5 as it became clear the Chiefs would be missing both Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. I still waffled harder than a Belgian Breakfaster (waffles are still a breakfast food there, right?) before finally taking the Lions. I expected a higher scoring game, but the reasons I finally settled on Detroit played out as the game went on: losing Kelce left the Chiefs with zero reliable receiving options, and the Chiefs’ defense without Jones couldn’t find the splash plays they needed to truly derail the Lions’ offense. Detroit’s hype train is now going off the tracks, but in a one-point game it’s important to remember what the story would be if the outcome was flipped; losing to Kansas City without their 2nd- and 3rd-best players would make it clear the Lions aren’t much better than last year’s 9-8 finish. Lions +4.5
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Let’s see…last year these teams split their two matchups, with the Panthers rolling P.J.Walker out against Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota. Both quarterbacks will be different this time around, with Bryce Young starting Week 1 as a rookie and Desmond Ridder making his fifth career start. So why are the Falcons giving the extra half point here? I think there’s been a bit too much excitement about Atlanta’s offensive profile last year and the addition of Bijan Robinson, but running back wasn’t exactly a position of weakness. I think we’re in for a close game, and I like getting more than a field goal between two bad teams. Panthers +3.5
Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I don’t have any reason to think Deshaun Watson will be markedly better than he was last season, but he probably won’t be worse. With that in mind, getting points with the home team seems like a juicy opportunity, especially considering recent games between these division rivals. Since Joe Burrow was drafted in 2020, he’s 24-17-1 as a starter, but just 1-5 against the Browns. Something about Cleveland’s offense has given Cincy a lot of trouble, as they’ve averaged 29.3 points per game in the last three seasons. Throw in slow starts during the Burrow-Zac Taylor era (1-5 in Weeks 1 and 2), and it isn’t hard to see the Browns coming away with an outright win here. Browns +2.5
Indianapolis Colts +5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I think we need to pump the brakes on the Anthony Richardson excitement just a bit. A couple of years ago, I had to eat a lot of my words about Josh Allen as the unfinished, historically inaccurate, freakishly athletic Bills’ quarterback boosted his completion percentage from 52.8% in 2018 to 58.8% and then 69.2% in 2020. I really didn’t think that kind of improvement was possible after someone made it to the NFL, but we shouldn’t think it’s the new norm. Richardson was extremely inaccurate in college, and even if he ends up being a Josh Allen-level developmental success story, it’s going to take more than one training camp with the Colts to get there. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are coming off a season that included a playoff win, and they only need to win by a touchdown against last year’s 32nd-ranked team by DVOA to cover the spread here. If Lawrence takes another step forward with Calvin Ridley in the mix, that’s an easy ask. Jaguars -5
Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Vikings were historically lucky (11-0 in one-score games) en route to a 13-4 finish last season, but regression to the mean is different than regression past it. The Bucs finished 14th in DVOA last season compared to Minnesota’s 28th, but that was the Tom Brady version of Tampa Bay’s offense; this year, Baker Mayfield is under center after beating out Kyle Trask in the preseason. I don’t think the whole year will go well for either team, but in Week 1, the Vikings are at home and have an advantage at head coach and quarterback. I think they’ll cover unless Baker somehow finds his 2020 form, offensive line, and running scheme. Vikings -5.5
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
New Orleans has been pushing salary cap problems into the future since before Drew Brees retired, and the impact is seen a little more each year. They’ve managed to stave off collapse with some great draft hits, but it’s going to fall apart at some point. The residual impact of Sean Payton’s offensive ideas fades with each passing year, giving way to more of Dennis Allen’s uninspired coaching. On the other side of the ball, we have Mike Vrabel’s Titans, who continue to pull out close games with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry making things just hard enough for opponents. I actually expect Derek Carr to look okay this year, but asking him to cover this spread, in his first start, without Alvin Kamara? Seems like a bit much. Titans +3
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
There’s a lot to like about the Steelers as home underdogs here, from their three consecutive Week 1 wins (over the Bengals and Bills, most recently) to the offseason reports of Kenny Pickett’s development and a lot of questions around Brock Purdy’s UCL recovery. But the 49ers looked like one of the best teams in the NFL last year after adding Christian McCaffrey, and they seem to be coming into this game fully healthy. I’d take Pittsburgh if the line was more than a field goal, but San Francisco is the better team, and they should win on the road if they’re a Super Bowl contender again this year. 49ers -2.5
Washington Commanders -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Joshua Dobbs will be under center for the Cardinals in Week 1, and he’s far from the only question mark on the depth chart. Who should we be excited to watch on offense? Hollywood Brown and James Conner aren’t doing much for me, and I don’t have high hopes for head coach Jonathan Gannon after watching some of the simple concepts Philadelphia’s defense struggled with last year. Washington will be thrilled to play without Daniel Snyder around, and they just have more talent across the board than the Cardinals. If they can get a strong showing from their defensive front to go along with big plays from guys like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, it’s going to get out of control fast. Commanders -7
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Houston Texans
On one side, a happy Lamar Jackson with by far his best wide receiver room to-date. On the other, CJ Stroud making his debut for a Texans team that truly earned the second overall pick in the draft this year. I think DeMeco Ryans will make for a good head coach, but he's taking over a rebuild and traveling to take on a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I think the Ravens and Lamar will be looking to make a statement in Week 1. Ravens -9.5
Chicago Bears -1 vs. Green Bay Packers
Last year, Green Bay won their two games against the Bears by a combined score of 55-29. Aaron Rodgers left, but is that really enough to make the Packers underdogs? In our NFC North preview, I said that as a Bears fan all I care about this season is seeing Justin Fields develop as a passer. If he does, we have a chance to win games against average to above-average teams like the Packers. If he doesn't, we'll be lucky to beat bad teams or play through a field-leveling monsoon against better ones. Until I see signs of that progress, I expect the team with better starting talent and depth to come out on top. Packers +1
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Let's go back to the year 2009. A well-regarded offensive coordinator from the New England Patriots heads to the AFC West to take over a team with a talented quarterback with some frustrating habits. Within 3 months, the young quarterback is gone and the coach remains, but the personality conflicts don't seem to stop there. Of course, in 2009 this was Josh McDaniels and Jay Cutler, and McDaniels went on to alienate and trade other players like Brandon Marshall. Now Derek Carr is on the Saints in favor of Jimmy Garoppolo (a bad swap in general, but even worse with a bad offensive line), Darren Waller is gone, and Chandler Jones is being managed…strangely. From the outside, the Raiders got worse at QB and should expect some serious regression from Josh Jacobs, who accounted for 34% of the team's yardage last year. The Broncos improved dramatically at head coach, and I can't imagine getting worse play from Russell Wilson. These division rivals were similar levels of bad last year, and with the opposite directions they're going, a field goal at home feels reasonable. Broncos -3
New England Patriots +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were about as close to winning a Super Bowl as you can get last season, and they got there with pretty dominant performances on both sides of the ball; they were third in both offensive and defensive DVOA. The Patriots had a good defense, but the experiment of putting two player-alienating failed head coaches in charge of the offense didn't work out very well. Bill O'Brien is the Offensive Coordinator now, and if he can guide Mac Jones back to even an average performance, New England should be in the playoff hunt. The gap between a team in the mix and one expected to make the Conference Championship is bigger than 4 points, though - even if the New England offense does a nice job controlling the clock and limiting mistakes, Philadelphia's defense is too good to let them keep up with Jalen Hurts and Co. Eagles -4
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
I assume this line is a result of the Chargers' big performance against the Dolphins in Week 14 last season, when they held Tua to 10 of 28 passing for 145 yards and provided the rest of the league a blueprint for slowing Miami down. The Dolphins are a more talented team this year, though, and I expect head coach Mike McDaniel has made some adjustments since then. Add in new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio’s bump to Miami’s defense and the…unique home field advantage the Chargers secured by moving to become the 8th most popular team in their own city (Lakers, Rams, Dodgers, Kings, Trojans, Bruins, and Clippers, at least), and this season's Chargers might open on a disappointing note even with Kellen Moore in the building. Dolphins +3
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have played the Seahawks tough over the years, including close games with Baker Mayfield and John Wolford under center last session. I was a little tempted to jump on the points here with that in mind and Matthew Stafford back in the mix, but news of Cooper Kupp's injury really scared me off. If the Rams look like the Chiefs from Thursday night, with drops aplenty and nothing but Aaron Donald on defense, Seattle should cover a touchdown with little trouble. Seahawks -4.5
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Giants with Brian Daboll were a bit of a feel-good story last year, but they made the playoffs on the strength of very few wins over good teams. Even if they get a little boost from free agent addition Darren Waller, Daniel Jones is in for a long afternoon against this Dallas defense. I'm so low on Mike McCarthy that I took the Dallas under, but they're talented enough to win this game even with that handicap. Cowboys -3.5
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The first Monday Night Football game of the season gives us Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh Allen, a theoretically exciting showdown with big implications for the AFC East race. I went into detail on the podcast, but I think Rodgers is closer to washed than he is his old self. Dalvin Cook is right there with him, and Breece Hall is coming off a knee injury. Does Garrett Wilson really make up for that and a terrible offensive line? The Jets’ defense played well against the Bills last season, but Buffalo is still very talented and Josh Allen is the MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers used to be. There's a chance Buffalo implodes over the course of a season from hell, but I think they'll be looking to put the league on notice in Week 1, and their multiple years of high-level play together should be an advantage over one Hard Knocks offseason for the opposite sideline. Bills -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
