2022 NFL Picks Week 2: Sorting Through the Wreckage
Last Week: 3-13
This Week:
Things really didn’t turn around after our Thursday Night Football loss last week. Some of it was weird (the Colts tying the Texans), some of it was unfortunate (Carson Wentz flipping up a go-ahead touchdown against Jacksonville), and some was just plain my fault (Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are even worse than I anticipated). It would be nice to bounce back in a big way, but I’ll take an 8-8 finish if I can get it.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I was fortunate enough to get this line when it was first posted, so Thursday’s 27-24 finish was good for a push. After last week we’ll gladly take it, but it’s not an inspiring start by any means. At least our preseason picks for Super Bowl (Chiefs) and MVP (Justin Herbert) are in a good spot to be hedged, assuming Herbert’s ribs don’t keep him out long. Chiefs -3
New York Giants -1.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Pretty sure I won’t have this game on the main screen unless it goes into overtime. Which team with the once-promising-but-still-young quarterback and the superstar-if-not-for-injuries running back will come out ahead? I’m pretty sure I give Brian Daboll the coaching edge, but Carolina probably has the talent advantage when you look at their pass-catchers and defense. I think Baker Mayfield will have fewer jitters in this game than he did against the Browns, and I like him and Carolina enough to take them with the points. Panthers +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Yes, I’m bitter about the Colts’ inability to get out to a lead and bury the Texans last week. Jonathan Taylor had to run the ball 31 times, Matt Ryan threw for 1.5 times as many yards as Davis Mills, and somehow it took 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to even force overtime. I’m even more concerned with their inability to come out of overtime with a win. Jacksonville didn’t exactly show out either, but they at least showed some of the explosiveness and competitiveness they were missing under Urban Meyer last season. Whether they win or not, the Jaguars should be able to make things difficult for the Colts like they did at the end of last year. Jaguars +3.5
Baltimore Ravens -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Baltimore’s Week 1 win over the Jets was about as meh as you can get for a final score of 24-9. Joe Flacco was somehow allowed to throw the ball 59 times in an NFL game in 2022, and the game was within a touchdown at halftime. I expect the Ravens to come out a little stronger in Week 2, and that’s bad news for a Dolphins team coming off a curious Week 1 win themselves. Is holding the Patriots to 7 points an impressive achievement this year? They looked very out of sorts on offense, and Miami didn’t exactly run away with the game. Tua seemed fine, but it took a defensive touchdown and a 4th and 7 conversion-turned-touchdown for Miami to get to 20 points. Baltimore’s defense might be better than New England’s, and their offense absolutely is. I like Baltimore to cover at home. Ravens -4
Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs. New England Patriots
Speaking of New England! The Patriots head to Pittsburgh this weekend to face a team they’ve narratively owned since 2013. New England is 6-1 in their last seven matchups with Pittsburgh, and only two of those wins were by one score. Unfortunately, the advantages the Patriots had for so long might all be gone at this point. I’d really love this line if T.J. Watt was going to play, but I’m happy to take the home team getting points against the version of New England we saw last week. Steelers +2
Cleveland Browns -6.5 vs. New York Jets
I’d rather not spend a lot of time digging into this game, but Cleveland was a bit lucky to come away with a win over Carolina last week. The Jets’ defense looked okay against Baltimore, but that’s about the only takeaway from their performance. Unless they can magic up a run defense or bring the 2012-13 model of Joe Flacco out to start the game, Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett can probably win this game themselves. Browns -6.5
New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve been burned by this match a few times over the years, but I’m not going to let the matchup history distract me too much this week. Tampa Bay looked pretty rough on offense against the Cowboys, but the Saints needed a classic Falcons collapse to pull out a win over Marcus Mariota. Tom Brady is a bit scarier than Mariota, and the Bucs’ defense is in a different league than whatever Atlanta is rolling out these days. I know I’ll feel stupid when the Bucs are sitting on 6 points heading into the fourth quarter, but I can’t bring myself to pick the Saints getting less than a field goal. Buccaneers -2.5
Detroit Lions -1.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Detroit’s streak of moral victories continued, but they’re 3-15 since the start of the Jared Goff-Dan Campbell era. Now they’re being favored against a Washington team that won 7 games last year and upgraded their quarterback. The line feels a little out of whack, and I’m happy to bet against the Lions as favorites until they actually earn it. Commanders +1.5
Los Angeles Rams -10 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’m just ignoring the Week 1 performances of both teams here. I don’t think Atlanta is as good as they looked while they were beating the Saints by 16, and I hope the Rams were just a rusty team facing one of the best teams in the league. This line wouldn’t have seemed crazy heading into Week 1, right? This is my favorite “pump the brakes” pick of Week 2. Rams -10
San Francisco 49ers -9 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Niners didn’t exactly come through for me last week, but we can blame at least part of it on the monsoon conditions in the second half. Their defense looked as dominant as I had hoped for much of the game, and Nick Bosa should be looking to feast on Geno Smith. I’m still not sure what to expect from Trey Lance, and history isn’t on our side; San Francisco hasn’t beaten Seattle by two scores since a showdown between Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson in 2011. I’m counting on a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks and a big bounceback from San Francisco at the same time. 49ers -9
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Not much of a reason to spend time here; I got the line before news of Dak Prescott’s injury came out. I was pretty excited to bet on the Bengals getting points against Mike McCarthy, but it looks even sweeter with Cooper Rush filling in at QB. I’d even take Cincinnati at the new line of -7, so naturally CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott will lead the Cowboys to a two-score victory. Bengals +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I don’t have high aspirations for the Cardinals, but isn’t this an overreaction to their Week 1 loss to the Chiefs? Arizona finished well ahead of the Raiders in DVOA last year (10th to 21st), both teams came out flat this year, and I don’t think we really know what to expect from the Josh McDaniels version of Las Vegas yet. If they’re still struggling to adjust to a new system, Arizona should be able to get ahead and make things hard for Derek Carr. Cardinals +3
Denver Broncos -10 vs. Houston Texans
So the team who couldn’t get past Geno Smith last week is giving double digits now? Cool cool cool. I’m not going to press the panic button because Russell Wilson struggles against his former team, but a 16-point showing against last season’s 21st-ranked defense isn’t what anyone was hoping for. The Broncos absolutely can win by double digits, but I’m not ready to bet on it just yet. Texans +10
Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears have a long way to go, but I’m taking last week as a positive sign for the new coaching staff. They probably shouldn’t have hung in the game as long as they did, and with the crazy weather it was long enough to start the season with a win. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay is no stranger to bouncing back from a bad Week 1 showing; last season they lost 38-3 to the Saints and their next eight games started by Aaron Rodgers., including a 24-14 win over the Bears. It would be nice to see Chicago break their streak of 4 straight double-digit losses to the Packers, but I think we’re still a few steps away. Packers -10
Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Buffalo looked like the best team in the league in Week 1, and Tennessee…looked like they missed A.J. Brown. Their leading receiver was someone named Kyle Philips, but the defensive performance may have been even worse. Daniel Jones completed 17 of 21 passes for the highest completion percentage of his career and Saquon Barkley averaged 9.1 yards per carry. The Buffalo offense was also designed by Brian Daboll, and almost all of their players are better. We could get a bounceback from the Titans, but I’m expecting them to continue struggling against the top teams. Bills -7.5
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
My favorite pick of the week. The Eagles got a lot of hype in the offseason, then nearly choked away a game against the Lions. Minnesota came out and beat up a good Packers team, and I’m not sure Philadelphia has the secondary to make Justin Jefferson sweat. But the line here is almost the standard home 3? The Vikings are exactly the kind of team Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense had trouble beating last year, and I don’t think they’ve improved in the right places to change that. Vikings +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
