2022 NFL Picks Week 13: Favorites Favoritism
A Thursday Night Football win! What a stunning way to kick off Week 13 when we really need to get on a roll. I wasn’t as confident in the rest of the slate, but hopefully our good luck holds and we’re back near .500 heading into the stretch run. Let’s check out the rest of the slate!
New England Patriots +3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I think we’re reaching the point where this version of the Bills just owns the Pats. New England’s only victory in the rivalry last season required truly freaky weather, and Buffalo has the edge in talent and coaching. Less than a touchdown was too easy. Bills -3.5
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Baltimore’s defense has really picked up since adding Roquan Smith, but they haven’t faced the toughest competition. Jacksonville is the only team they’ve faced with a competent offense, and Trevor Lawrence led a fourth-quarter comeback to reach 28 points and steal a win. This week’s opponent, the Broncos, are much more like the Saints and Panthers on offense and their defense has slipped lately to be good rather than great. If the Ravens can’t win here by double-digits at home, we can scratch them off the list of title contenders. Ravens -8.5
Chicago Bears +4 vs. Green Bay Packers
Cris Collinsworth’s praise of Jordan Love was, frankly, gross to listen to after Aaron Rodgers left the game on Sunday night. The dude completed a few passes with an exorbitant amount of YAC and a casual listener would think we were talking about Dan Marino. The return of Justin Fields makes me a little nervous picking against the Bears, but Green Bay is still a much better team and currently boasts a 7-game win streak in the rivalry. I’d like to pick the Bears at home, but I’ll probably wait until next year. Packers -4
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
These two teams are headed in opposite directions, and the way Washington’s defense has been playing lately suggests Daniel Jones will look more like his recent self than the version who led the Giants to a 6-1 start. Unless Saquon Barkley regains his early-season form to give the G-men some degree of explosiveness, Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr. will be dictating the game. Commanders -2.5
Detroit Lions EVEN vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence looked great bringing the Jaguars back from the brink last week, but it still feels like Jacksonville has a hard time putting a complete game together. Detroit’s defense is going to give up points, but I like Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions weapons against Jacksonville’s 26th-ranked defense more than Christian Kirk against Detroit’s 24th-ranked unit. Lions to win
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. New York Jets
This line feels like it’s based on win-loss record alone, with the 9-2 Vikings hosting the 7-4 Jets. Minnesota is much worse by point differential and advanced metrics, much of which comes from opponent adjustments. Changing to Mike White at quarterback won’t push a team to the Super Bowl, but it looks like it’s enough to boost the Jets’ offense to respectability. When a defense is this good, respectable is enough to keep things close on the road. Jets +3
Houston Texans +7 vs. Cleveland Browns
I assume Cleveland’s quarterback of the future will be shaking off a lot of rust in this game, but they should be able to cover a touchdown by just handing the ball to Nick Chubb relentlessly. The Texans rank dead last in DVOA, dead last in offensive DVOA, and haven’t lost by less than 7 points since Week 5. They’re playing out the string at this point, and Kyle Allen won’t be leading any comebacks. Browns -7
Atlanta Falcons +1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
It seems a little odd to see the Falcons getting points at home here against a 4-7 Pittsburgh team, but time might be up on the Marcus Mariota experiment. Atlanta only has two wins in their past six games, one against the Panthers and one against the Bears. The Steelers seem to be playing better of late, with T.J. Watt back in action and an offense scoring over 20 points per game since their Week 9 bye. Putting an experienced coaching staff against a one-dimensional offense feels like a good opportunity for a road win. Steelers -1
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Is it just me, or are people feeling a little too good about the Eagles for running all over the Packers? Green Bay has let every team in the league run on them this year, and Philadelphia didn’t put the game away until Jake Elliott hit a 54-yard field goal. The Titans have the league’s best run defense, and they thrive by attacking the weak points of their opponents. Five points feels a little disrespectful to what Mike Vrabel and Tennessee have accomplished. Titans +5
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Four points feels a little large for any team going against the Dolphins lately, but Miami’s in for a shock in terms of the level of competition. Since Tua Tagovailoa came back from his concussions, he’s played against the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans. Pittsburgh held him to 16 points, and the teams they’ve scored in bunches against rank 24th, 31st, 29th, and 27th in defensive DVOA. The Niners are 5th in defensive DVOA, and Fred Warner dominates the middle of the field where the Dolphins do most of their damage. I don’t love picking either side here, but I’ll pick the team I think will win and enjoy the show. 49ers -4
Los Angeles Rams +7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s defense looked terrible in their overtime loss to the Raiders last week, but who’s going to take advantage of it in this matchup? John Wolford and…Van Jefferson? Even the Rams’ defense has been struggling, yielding 26+ points to the Chiefs, Saints, and Cardinals in the past three weeks. Seattle can still score points, and I just don’t see how this version of the Rams can keep up. Seahawks -7
Cincinnati Bengals +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I am greatly offended to have this and Niners-Dolphins in the same time slot, but what are we going to do? Bump the Cowboys and COLTS out of the Sunday Night Football slot? Bah. Anyway, both of these teams are awesome and Patrick Mahomes is going to have revenge on his mind after losing to the Bengals twice last year. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been flashing a new, diversified offense this season and might get Ja’Marr Chase back for this game. I love the Chiefs and I still like them to win the Super Bowl, but the Bengals are a more balanced team getting points at home. Bengals +2
Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This line makes too much sense to be fun, and the Raiders have been on a real rollercoaster all season. The Chargers are getting healthier, but Mike Williams is still missing. Las Vegas has looked best when they’ve committed to the run game, and the Chargers sport the league’s 29th-ranked run defense. I came really close to picking the Raiders, but I couldn’t pass up a free point with Justin Herbert against the league’s worst pass defense. Chargers +1
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a poorly-run organization with a head coach who redefines “inexperienced.” That might be an advantage over Mike McCarthy, but everything else looks like advantage: Dallas. Micah Parsons won’t even have to chase Matt Ryan to create some sack-fumbles, and Dak Prescott has been scoring 20+ points without much trouble since returning from injury. I’ve been wrong on the Colts before, but this feels like a nationally-televised pants-ing waiting to happen. Cowboys -10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay is probably the grossest above-average team in the league. I’d rather watch the Vikings ten times before laying eyes on what the Buccaneers did against the Browns last week, even if they aren’t as good of a team. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay’s defense is genuinely good, and Andy Dalton is not a good quarterback. The Saints usually give the Bucs a lot of trouble, but their defense just hasn’t been as impressive this year. A little over a field goal at home shouldn’t be asking too much. Buccaneers -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
