2022 NFL Picks Week 14: Time is Running Out
This time last season, we were recovering from a late Friendsgiving and making picks through a haze of cocktails and late-night food prep-induced fatigue. This year, my wife and I welcomed our son to the world, and I’m starting to understand true sleep deprivation. Let’s see what impact it has on our prognostications!
Los Angeles Rams +6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I didn’t know the Rams signed Baker Mayfield until I turned on the game late Thursday night, but somehow it worked out! I thought the spread was a little too big for a road team with one of the worst defenses in the league, and I considered myself lucky to get a push when the Rams scored their first touchdown with 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter. That second touchdown must have been a new dad gift from the universe. Rams +6
Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Lot of talk coming into this game about how the Vikings and Lions are inverse images. Minnesota is five games ahead of Detroit in the standings, but only 19 points better by point differential (+10 to -9). If I looked at those underlying numbers and saw the Vikings favored on the road, I’d probably view the Lions as a great opportunity. Unfortunately, the Lions are getting the standard home line here. I don’t buy Detroit as the superior team just yet. Vikings +2.5
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans received a real beatdown from the Eagles last week, and Treylon Burks is set to miss this week’s game after the concussion he suffered against Philadelphia. The Jaguars have injury problems of their own, though, with Trevor Lawrence leaving last week’s loss to the Lions and returning after halftime. Tennessee might struggle to find explosive plays without Burks, but they’re a much better team than Jacksonville and have won four of their last five meetings by 18+ points. Titans -3.5
Dallas Cowboys -15.5 vs. Houston Texans
It never feels great to pick a line this big, but this is as good of an opportunity as we could hope for. Dallas is now 2nd in DVOA and has four wins of 16+ points in the six games since Dak Prescott returned from injury. Houston is coming off a 13 point loss in a game where they didn’t give up a touchdown to the opposing offense. Cowboys -15.5
Cincinnati Bengals -6 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have owned the Bengals in the Joe Burrow era, including a bizarre Week 8 beatdown this season. Cincinnati is at home here, though, playing their best football of the season. Deshaun Watson’s return last week led to a win, but he was leading the offense who managed 0 touchdowns against the Texans. We’re taking the better team on both sides of the ball at home. Bengals -6
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore will be starting Tyler Huntley for the injured Lamar Jackson this week, really minimizing their potential for a high-scoring outing. They might not need to light up the scoreboard to come away with a win against the Steelers, who have only scored 30 points once this season and are averaging just 17.8 offensive points per game. The Ravens’ defense has been solid since adding Roquan Smith, and that should be enough to keep things tight against Kenny Pickett. Ravens +2
Buffalo Bills -9 vs. New York Jets
The Bills can absolutely cover this spread, but I haven’t seen the week-to-week consistency from their offense to make me feel comfortable taking them against a defense as strong as the Jets’. With injuries mounting for Buffalo, I’ll need to see them get back into rhythm before taking them by multiple scores over other playoff teams. Jets +9
New York Giants +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The first game that came to mind when I saw this matchup was last season’s ugly 13-7 outing that made me think Jalen Hurts couldn’t carry the Eagles past a well-schemed defense. I had entirely forgotten about the ensuing stomping in Philadelphia later that season, where Jalen Hurts got on track and racked up three second-half touchdowns. The Eagles seem to learn and adapt as well as any team in the league, and the Giants just don’t have the roster talent to keep up. Eagles -7
Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Miami Dolphins
Justin Herbert’s absurd throws and the return of Mike Williams are the only reasons to like the Chargers here. Miami is better on offense and defense, and hits the kind of explosive plays the Chargers are vulnerable to regularly. I don’t think they’ll bump into the same problems they faced against the 49ers, and big offensive outings are out of character for this year’s Chargers. Dolphins -3
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Sure, the Seahawks haven’t been able to stop anybody, but just over a field goal? Sam Darnold is leading the Panthers into Seattle to face a superior team. I’m not wildly impressed with Carolina’s recent run of defensive dominance; holding the Falcons, Ravens, and Broncos under 20 points isn’t that impressive this season. Seahawks -3.5
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Tom Brady vs. Brock Purdy enough of an advantage to pick Tampa Bay on the road? The Bucs still look like an above-average team by DVOA, but they’ve needed a lot of magic to win three of their last four games against the Rams, Seahawks, Browns, and Saints. The Niners are considerably better than all of those teams, and their defense has been dominant at home. 49ers -3.5
Denver Broncos +9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs probably only need 20 points to cover this line, right? The Broncos are averaging a league-low 13.8 offensive points per game. 13.8! They’ve only scored 20 points twice, and now they have to take on an angry Patrick Mahomes. It would take an otherworldly effort from a Denver defense who’s already seen a top player traded away this season to keep things within two scores. Chiefs -9
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. New England Patriots
The version of Kyler Murray the Cardinals would need to win this game comfortably hasn’t been spotted since early in the 2021 season. If it weren’t for Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, the Patriots would have every conceivable coaching advantage. New England should be able to ride Rhamondre Stevenson to a road win even if Murray extends a few drives with his legs. Patriots -1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
