2022 NFL Picks Week 15: Riding the Road Teams
Another Thursday Night Football win in the bag! We need to make up 12 games in the next four weeks, and we’re back to full 16-game slates the rest of the way. Let’s jump right in!
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Even with Brock Purdy, the 49ers are playing as well as any team in the NFC. Seattle’s defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone since earlier in the season, and a loaded defensive line seemed like the easiest way to bring bad Geno Smith back. An easy win to start the week. 49ers -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Okay, I think maybe we’ve swung too far on the Vikings. I know they lost to the Lions last week, but the Lions have a pretty good offense! The Colts definitely do not, and they also don’t have anyone to guard Justin Jefferson. Minnesota should win by a touchdown at home against one of the worst teams in the league. Vikings -4
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Even if the Ravens are down to their third-string quarterback, their defense is stacked and the Browns have looked worse since moving to their intended starting quarterback. In a game where neither team is likely to reach 20 points, I like Baltimore with Justin Tucker and an extra field goal in the line. Ravens +3
Buffalo Bills -7.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Tua hasn’t looked great in the past two weeks, and he’s going up against the league’s 4th-ranked defense in freezing temperatures. The Bills need this game badly to stay ahead in the AFC East and on track for a bye week, and I expect them to take care of business. Bills -7.5
Houston Texans +14 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I really hate taking the Chiefs with a line this big, but Houston is just terrible. The turnover luck they got against Dallas last week should have been enough to win outright, and they found a way to blow it. Kansas City won’t make the same kind of mistakes that let Denver cover last week, and two touchdowns is a boring quarter for Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs -14
New Orleans Saints -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder is in at quarterback for the Falcons, and the Superdome should be a tough place to start your career. Atlanta has a decent offense, though, and Marcus Mariota wasn’t exactly a driving force. New Orleans just hasn’t been good often enough this year for me to bank on them covering more than a field goal. Falcons +4
Washington Commanders -4.5 vs. New York Giants
Two weeks ago, these teams tied in New Jersey. Washington had a bye week and the Giants got obliterated by the Eagles, and now the Commanders are favored by 4.5? I think we’d expect both teams to lose to Philadelphia, but 4.5 seems like a big swing from a tightly-locked game just two weeks ago. I kind of hope they tie again. Giants +4.5
New York Jets +0.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The Jets have a lot of injuries coming into this game, but I’m a little more concerned about what Jared Goff can do against a good defense in bad weather. I thought the book was out on how to beat Goff, and hopefully Robert Saleh has read it. Even with Amon-Ra St. Brown active, the Jets seem like a slightly better team with a much better coach. Jets +0.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Trevor Lawrence has looked good in recent weeks, but I can’t trust him to stack up points on one of the league’s best defenses with so few weapons at his disposal. I’m sure Doug Pederson has some tricks up his sleeve for the Cowboys, but this is the roster of a contender going against a rebuilder. One touchdown isn’t asking too much. Cowboys -5
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Call me crazy, but I don’t like picking the Panthers as favorites. Sam Darnold is their quarterback. There isn’t much to love about Pittsburgh, but winning ugly is what they do. Steelers +2.5
Chicago Bears +9 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The best thing for the Bears to do the rest of the season is keep Justin Fields healthy and lose games. Philadelphia is a much better team in the trenches, and it will take a heroic effort from Fields to keep this game within two scores. I think the Eagles will have a letdown game instead of going 16-1, but this won’t be it. Eagles -9
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray hasn’t been great this year, but I think you need some level of creativity to put up points on this year’s Denver defense. Russell Wilson’s performance against the Chiefs was probably his best of the season, and while I’m not expecting another three touchdowns here, he should move the ball well enough on Arizona’s 26th-ranked defense to cover a field goal at home. Broncos -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I think the Buccaneers might just be bad. Their last three wins have come against the Rams, Seahawks, and Saints by a combined nine points. They’ve only scored 20+ points five times this season and once since November. The Bengals are a little dinged up, but they’re clearly superior on both sides of the ball and need to keep winning to keep their division hopes alive. Bengals -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
Everyone is fawning over Justin Herbert for his performance last week, and it’s not entirely unfounded. He made some incredible plays both within and out of structure, but I think it’s important to note the Chargers still only scored 23 points against the Dolphins. They have the 25th-ranked run defense, and Mike Vrabel loves to grind teams down until he gets an ugly win. I think the Titans have a better chance of rebounding here than really folding their season in altogether after three straight losses. Titans +3
Las Vegas Raiders EVEN vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots are very good on defense, which means they’re a big step ahead of anything the Raiders can do this year. I don’t think Josh McDaniels has the keys to beating his old mentor, and even Matt Patricia and Joe Judge can probably figure out a way to score on the Las Vegas defense. Patriots to Win
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Packers had a big leg up on the Rams even before they became expensive and injured. I think Green Bay’s offense is a bad matchup for the best version of the Rams’ defense, and nothing we’ve seen from John Wolford, Baker Mayfield, or Bryce Perkins suggests they’ll be racking up points on offense. A touchdown at home isn’t asking a lot. Packers -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
