2022 NFL Picks Week 16: Bouncing Back from Bad Beats
Last week we were 0-3 on Saturday and 7-5-1 otherwise, and those three losses took a lot of joy out of the NFL Saturdays I love so much. Watching Minnesota play only one half of football and still nearly cover against the Colts was rough, but seeing Baltimore score just three points against the Browns was even worse. Let’s see if a few more bounces go our way this week and move us a little closer to finishing the season at .500!
New York Jets -2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I might have taken the Mike White Jets with this line, but a surging Trevor Lawrence getting points against Zach Wilson was too tempting to pass up. I’m not ready to say Jacksonville is good yet; they need more consistency on defense and some real wide receivers. Lawrence is playing well enough to beat bad teams regularly, though, and Zach Wilson makes the Jets a bad team. Jaguars +2.5
Chicago Bears +8 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has clinched a playoff spot, but they still need one win to clinch the AFC East and they have their eyes on the real prize of the top seed in the AFC and the conference’s lone bye. Kansas City should pick up another win this week, and Buffalo can’t afford a slip-up against Chicago. The Bears rank 29th in DVOA and it would take a heroic game from Justin Fields to stay within a score of what Josh Allen will do to this version of the Bears’ defense. Bills -8
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Since their Week 10 bye, the Ravens have scored 13, 27, 10, 16, and 3 points. Their scheduled starter in Lamar Jackson’s absence has shoulder tendinitis, and they still don’t have any receivers. Atlanta is 5-9, but they’ve only lost two games by 7 or more points all season. It won’t be pretty, but the Falcons can cover a line this big with their run game. Falcons +6.5
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I know Seattle has looked rough, losing four of their last five games, but they haven’t lost by double digits since Week 2 against San Francisco. Kenneth Walker looks set to play, and the Chiefs haven’t put up a strong defensive performance since Week 12 against the Bryce Perkins Rams. I like the Chiefs to win at home, but 10 points is a lot to cover against a good Seahawks offense. Seahawks +10
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. New York Giants
Picking against Justin Jefferson is scary, but we might be due for a Kirk Cousins stinker, and the Giants have shown a strong pass rush over their past few games. Even if Minnesota plays well, a healthy Saquon Barkley can probably produce enough big plays to keep things close. Brian Daboll has kept the Giants competitive all season, and I think he can do it again here against the league’s strangest division leader. Giants +4
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. New Orleans Saints
I still don’t understand how the Browns managed to cover three points last week, and no one is worried about Cleveland’s pass offense yet. New Orleans has a lot of problems of their own, but their defense can keep them in games and they seem happy to get into slugfests. I like the points in a low-scoring matchup. Saints +3
New England Patriots +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Is this line so low purely out of respect for Bill Belichick? If he had better coaches on his staff I’d be a little more enthusiastic, but lost in the commotion around the Patriots’ bizarre final play last week is a question of the play call itself. If the players weren’t meant to attempt the laterals, why didn’t New England just kneel the clock out for overtime? Just in case Rhamondre Stevenson was going to break a 50-yard TD run? Cincinnati is a more talented team, and they have a coaching edge everywhere outside of head coach. Don’t overthink it. Bengals -3
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have been feisty lately, but they’re also justifiably overlooked week in and week out. They’ve lost their last nine games and would only have covered a three point line three times all season. Tennessee is struggling and won’t have Ryan Tannehill, but they kept things close against the Chiefs in a similar spot. A field goal isn’t asking much against a straight-up bad Houston team. Titans -3
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The only thing I like less than everyone being in on the Lions is picking Sam Darnold getting less than a field goal. Detroit’s defense has quietly improved from cripplingly bad to just meh, and that’s enough to keep Carolina in check. On the other side of the ball, I don’t think the Panthers have the personnel needed to pressure Goff or stymie the Lions at full health. Lions -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Washington was looking cute until they lost their rematch against the Giants, and Taylor Heinicke is going to be running for his life in this one. The Niners are just a buzzsaw right now, and they haven’t shown a tendency of allowing backdoor covers that scare me away from a line like this; nine of their ten wins this season have come by 8+ points, and eight have come by double digits. Washington shouldn’t have their usual advantage in the trenches, and they don’t have much to fall back on. 49ers -6.5
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This line moved way too much with news of Jalen Hurts’ injury. Gardner Minshew is a perfectly competent backup quarterback, and he specializes in making the right reads and getting the ball out quickly. If he was less experienced I’d be a bit more worried about him against the Dallas pass rush, but I believe in him and the Eagles’ offensive environment more than anything Dallas has shown on offense lately. Eagles +4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Mitchell Trubisky is favored against a team with a decent offense here. The Raiders probably didn’t deserve their win last week, but they don’t need to win to get us a cover here. All they have to do is score 16 to get us a win based on Pittsburgh’s season average of 17.9 points per game. Raiders +2.5
Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Miami is the better team by advanced metrics and the eye test, and they’ll be playing at home here instead of in freezing conditions in Buffalo or Green Bay. The Packers aren’t situated to take advantage of special teams weaknesses, and Aaron Rodgers has been looking for the right time to throw in the towel all season long. We’re taking Tua. Dolphins -3.5
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Don’t watch this game unless you really need to escape the family. At this point I’m taking Denver because they’re good on defense and the Rams aren’t good anywhere. Aaron Donald is now expected to miss this game, meaning the stars-and-scrubs Rams are basically Jalen Ramsey and a bunch of scrubs. It won’t be fun, but Russell Wilson should be able to win by a field goal against this version of the defending Super Bowl champs. Broncos -2.5
Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I probably would have taken the Cardinals if Colt McCoy was playing, but it’s going to be Trace McSorley under center for Arizona this week. The Buccaneers are gross, but they’re the far superior team in this matchup and they somehow still need wins to keep control over the NFC South. I’d probably avoid this game too. Buccaneers -7.5
Indianapolis Colts +4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
If the Chargers are going to be a real playoff team this year, they need to make a statement against the Colts. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both healthy, and Jonathan Taylor is on IR. If Justin Herbert can’t cover a touchdown in this matchup, I won’t take the Chargers as favorites again until they overhaul the coaching staff. Chargers -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
