2022 NFL Picks Week 17: The Laws of Gods and Men (and Football)
Only two weeks remain in the regular season, and after last week’s Christmas Day meltdown we’re a long way from a respectable season. We’ve tried digging deep into the analytics and we’ve tried riding hot hands, but this late in the year it should be clear which teams are deserving of a big line. And when all else fails: good things don’t happen to the Vikings and Chargers.
Tennessee Titans +12 vs. Dallas Cowboys
We went back and forth on this one a few times before ultimately deciding the Titans were just too injured to keep up in a game against a playoff team. Malik Willis was able to keep things close against the Chiefs, but that was back when Tennessee had a (mostly) healthy roster. Their coaching advantage was almost enough to ruin our pick here again, but the Cowboys got just enough stops to get us a cover. Cowboys -12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. Carolina Panthers
I’d feel a lot better about picking the Panthers if Jaycee Horn was playing, but we haven’t seen anything from the Bucs to suggest they’ll pick on an opponent’s weakness en route to a blowout. The Bucs have scored 20 points once since their Week 11 bye and needed overtime to reach 19 against the Cardinals last week. Carolina’s defense has been good enough all year, and the Bucs’ run defense isn’t what it used to be; they’re a middling 13th after dominating the line of scrimmage in 2019 and 2020. I don’t expect Carolina to replicate what they did against the Lions, but if they can get 14 it might be enough to cover against this version of Tampa Bay. Panthers +4
Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. New Orleans Saints
Gardner Minshew will be under center for the Eagles again this week, and he might have pulled out a cover for us last week against the Cowboys if not for some very ill-timed fumbles. New Orleans isn’t the same caliber of opponent as Dallas, and Philadelphia’s costly injury to Lane Johnson won’t be as impactful this week as it will be in the stretch run. The Eagles are absolutely a touchdown better than the Saints, even if Taysom Hill does some weird stuff. Eagles -6
New England Patriots -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami goes from Tua to Teddy and they become worse than the Patriots? New England has a great defense, but their quarterback and offensive coordinator seem to hate each other and their best playmaker out of the doghouse (looking at you, Kendrick Bourne) is a 230 lb running back. The Pats look great against terrible quarterbacks, but the Dolphins just need Teddy to hit Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill a couple of times to win this game outright. Dolphins +2.5
Houston Texans +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence is questionable to play, likely because the Week 18 matchup against the Titans is the only game that really matters for the Jaguars in terms of playoff hopes. If he does play, Jacksonville has advantages across the board in this matchup, and they’ve been playing with a new purpose since their Week 11 bye. I don’t love making the pick in light of Jacksonville’s lack of motivation, but if the Texans win the Bears move closer to the number one pick. It’s a win-win! Jaguars -3
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Kansas City has been killing me this season, most recently by covering a double digit spread against the league’s 12th-ranked offense by DVOA despite scoring just 24 points. Now they’re giving a little under two touchdowns to an utterly inept Denver team with a new interim coach and the same Russell Wilson they’ve had all season. The Chiefs haven’t beaten the Broncos by this many points since December of last season, but this might be the lowest Denver has fallen in recent memory and Kansas City needs to win to keep their chance at the 1-seed alive. I think they’ll come out focused enough to win big against a Broncos team ready for the offseason. Chiefs -12.5
New York Giants -5.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
It seems like the Colts should have lost every game this year by at least a touchdown, and their first performance with Nick Foles was about as bleak as I’ve ever seen. With the game in New York and the Giants fighting for their playoff lives, I think Brian Daboll will push enough of the right buttons to win comfortably here. Fingers crossed Wink Martindale doesn’t blitz his way to a backdoor cover against a team as lost as the Colts. Giants -5.5
Washington Commanders -2 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns seem like the easy pick here, especially with Carson Wentz back in the lineup for the Commanders. Something about the matchup doesn’t feel right, though. Washington’s defensive line should make things difficult for the Cleveland run game, and Deshaun Watson hasn’t shown flashes of carrying the offense himself. It doesn’t feel good to pick Washington, but at least they have a scary set of playmakers to cover a field goal. Commanders -2
Detroit Lions -6 vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago really choked away this matchup earlier in the year, and their running game is a bad matchup for Detroit’s defense. The Lions should win, but six points feels like a lot for a team that just got blown out by the Panthers. Bears +6
Atlanta Falcons -5.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Falcons are 5-10, and only have one win by more than four points on the season. This week they get to play against Arizona’s fourth-string quarterback in David Blough, but is that enough to justify a line this high? The Arizona offense can usually get to “meh” even without Kyler Murray, and their defense has been playing respectably with J.J. Watt’s retirement looming. I don’t feel good about it, but the line just feels a little too high for a bad team to cover. Cardinals +5.5
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Derek Carr has been benched, meaning Jarrett Stidham will be starting against the 49ers and their league-leading defense. That’s not a good start, and I don’t think the Raiders’ 31st-ranked defense will force Brock Purdy into his first terrible game. I’m not sure why this line isn’t double digits, but I’ll take it. 49ers -9.5
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 vs. New York Jets
Mike White is back for the Jets, and there’s some buzz around the way his presence energizes the team or at least improves the vibes over whatever Zach “we didn’t let the defense down” Wilson is doing. I don’t think it’s entirely unjustified, but the Jets are 1-2 in Mike White games with the lone win coming against the Trevor Siemian Bears. Seattle hasn’t shown much of late, but getting points at home against the 7-8 Jets who have lost four games in a row feels like an overcorrection. Seahawks +1.5
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 12-3, the Packers are 7-8. Somehow Green Bay is 11th in DVOA while the Vikings are 25th, and their point differentials suggest they’re very similar teams. Minnesota won the Week 1 matchup between these teams when the Packers seemed only mildly interested in covering Justin Jefferson, and while Green Bay’s offense has improved in recent weeks they’ve only broken 30 points in regulation twice all year. Still, they need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Vikings are just jostling for seeding. A sweep over the rival Packers would be nice, but Vikings fans historically don’t get nice things. Packers -3
Los Angeles Chargers -6 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Is there a Baker Mayfield renaissance happening with the Rams? Probably not, but he certainly raises their offensive ceiling beyond what John Wolford or Bryce Perkins provided. The Chargers are experiencing a surge of their own, winning four of their last five games and looking a good deal more competent with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field. Only one of those four wins has come by more than six points. I like the Chargers to win, but a full touchdown is too much. Rams +6
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The last meeting between these two teams was not kind to the quarterbacks, but we’ll see if Kenny Pickett and Tyler Huntley can make it to the end of this one. If they do, the Ravens have the stronger defense and the better kicker, so giving a field goal feels alright. Ravens -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals +1 vs. Buffalo Bills
I don’t even want to make a pick in this game, because it’s set up to be one of the most entertaining Monday Night Football games in quite some time. The Bengals are looking like one of the most well-rounded teams in football, with a defense consistently getting the job done despite being mediocre by DVOA. The same metrics love the Bills, ranking them in the top 5 on offense and defense, but on-the-field results haven’t looked as dominant; their current six-game win streak includes one-score wins over the Browns, Lions, Jets, and Dolphins. For this matchup, I just like the way the Bills’ defense matches up against Cincinnati more than the other way around. The Bengals are set up to give the Chiefs fits, but Buffalo is a much different monster on offense. I’ll take Buffalo to win, but mostly I just can’t wait to kick up my feet and watch. Bills -1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
