2022 NFL Picks Week 3: Running with the Road Teams
Not a winning week, but only barely a losing one! It always takes some time to get into the flow of the season, and maybe we’re getting there. Two weeks is usually enough to draw some conclusions; I’m pretty positive the Chiefs and Bills are really good, and I’m 100% sure the Seahawks and Bears are not. Of course, we aren’t picking the games straight up.
Let’s see if we can get things going the right direction in Week 3.
Cleveland Browns -5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bad start, once again. Maybe Thursday Night Football just doesn’t like me very much. I’m not going to dwell on it for too long because a Chris Boswell missed field goal from 49 yards might have made all the difference. Cleveland wasn’t exactly dominant against Mitch Trubisky, but they are now 3-0 with Jacoby Brissett. We’ll get back to them next week. Steelers +5
Miami Dolphins +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Am I bitter about Miami’s 21-point comeback to outright beat the Ravens last week? Absolutely. Am I underestimating them in this matchup? I don’t think so. Buffalo has some troubling (particularly going against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) injuries in the secondary, but nothing about the Dolphins makes me think they can slow down Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. Last season Buffalo won their two matchups with Miami by a combined score of 61-11. The season before that it was a bit closer at 87-54, but Buffalo has averaged 37 points per game against the Dolphins in their last four matchups. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Tua to keep pace, but Buffalo isn’t going to mess around and have the same coverage busts Baltimore had last week. The warpath continues. Bills -4.5
New York Jets +4.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Okay, so Cincinnati has sucked so far. I really thought I was safe with them at +2.5 last week, the line BEFORE it was announced that Dak Prescott wouldn’t be playing. They still couldn’t cover, mostly because Micah Parsons was eating Joe Burrow’s lunch all game long. I don’t think Cincy is running into the same issue here. The Jets rank 22nd in adjusted sack rate, and while Joe Flacco made me eat my words with a miraculous comeback against the Browns last week, I’m comfortable saying he won’t manage to do it twice. It’s less than a touchdown, and the Bengals can’t afford to start 0-3. Bengals -4.5
Minnesota Vikings -6 vs. Detroit Lions
I was a little surprised to see almost a touchdown here, and not just because Kirk Cousins looked like Mitch Trubisky against the Eagles last week. Detroit can’t apply the same kind of pressure Philadelphia did up front, but their offense might be just as dynamic. Minnesota’s defense has some real problems, starting in the secondary, and their approach of giving 10 yards of cushion to every Eagles’ receiver was suboptimal. Even if Minnesota asserts themselves as the better team early on, I like the chances of a backdoor cover from a motivated Lions team who has played Minnesota tough in their last three meetings. Lions +6
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Houston Texans
I have no real argument for disagreeing with this line. I was hoping to see some strides from Justin Fields this season, and I haven’t. I haven’t seen confirmation of his weaknesses either, because it’s hard to see much of anything in 28 pass attempts across two games! That said, Houston has looked mostly dead on offense all season, and the Bears can put Davis Mills under pressure. It’s going to be a terrible game, but maybe Chicago will open up their offense and attempt *gasp* 20 passes against their old coach’s vanilla defense like they didn’t against the Niners’ or Packers’ more formidable units. Bears -3
Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Did you know that Indianapolis sucks? I did not, but it really looks that way through two games. They’ve given Kansas City some trouble over the past five years, but they were just shut out by the Jaguars. Jonathan Taylor can’t do everything, and it looks like Matt Ryan can’t do anything. I really thought he was a clear upgrade over Carson Wentz, but at least Wentz provided some variance. Kansas City is going to score early and often here against a Colts’ team whose offense has managed just 20 points in two games. One touchdown isn’t asking a lot. Chiefs -6.5
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans should win this game easily against Baker Mayfield, but at some point the balancing act takes a tumble. The Saints’ defense has lived up to the billing for the start of another year, and they kept things close against the Buccaneers despite very little help from their offense. I’ve watched enough Bears’ games over the years to know you can’t keep that dance up forever, and Jameis Winston playing through fractured vertebrae won’t help the offense get back on track. I just don’t know if New Orleans has the juice they need to cover a full field goal on the road. Panthers +3
Washington Commanders +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz is going to haunt me all year. In Week 1 he brought the Commanders (ugh) all the way back to win and cover, and in Week 2 his backdoor cover efforts fell just short against the Lions. The biggest issue I see here is Washington’s defense against Philadelphia’s offensive weapons. I still don’t believe in Jalen Hurts as a QB who can pull a team through the postseason, but he played well enough to come away with two wins against Washington last year. The half point really makes me nervous, but I think the Eagles can pressure Wentz into some mistakes that will ultimately turn this game into a rout. Eagles -3.5
Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Gross. This game and this line provoke such a non-reaction from me that I wish it wasn’t scheduled at all. Las Vegas played close games against the Chargers and Cardinals, two teams famous for tripping over their own feet. Tennessee has looked utterly lost with a diminished Derrick Henry and no A.J. Brown. In this case I just think Mike Vrabel has enough to beat out Josh McDaniels and keep his team from dropping to 0-3, and I’m hoping we see a bit of the old Derrick Henry against a mediocre Raiders’ run defense. Titans +2.5
New England Patriots +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
New England’s defense has been good to start the year, but it isn’t the defense of years past. Their offense has been…dull. They can run the ball, but outside of a shocking Nelson Agholor deep ball against Pittsburgh, they might be the opposite of the Miami offense that mounted a comeback against Baltimore last week. I think Lamar Jackson will have another great game, and the Pats just don’t have the offensive personnel (or coaching) to keep pace. Ravens -3
Los Angeles Chargers -7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes, yeeeeees, the Chargers favored by a touchdown “at home.” Jacksonville won’t benefit from the vacation/transplant advantage many teams enjoy when visiting the 7th most popular team in Los Angeles, but it still doesn’t leave the Chargers with a real advantage. More importantly, Justin Herbert is dealing with a rib cartilage injury painful enough to prevent him from throwing in practice on Friday. Jacksonville is looking like a competent team, and the Chargers almost never win easy; they won just four games by two scores last year, and those came against Las Vegas, Cincinnati in an all-time weird game, the Giants, and the Broncos with Drew Lock. Competence is enough to at least push a touchdown. Jaguars +7
Seattle Seahawks -2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Neither of these teams is very good, but the Falcons are kind of interesting. Cordarelle Patterson is still producing as a running back, and Atlanta has been scoring points despite an odd insistence on avoiding Kyle Pitts. There’s just so much more skill on the field for Atlanta here, and I’m still pretty sure Geno Smith sucks. Falcons +2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I’ve really enjoyed picking Tom Brady against the Packers for the past couple of years, but this season feels different. Green Bay looked lost in Week 1 but got things somewhat on track against the Bears last week. Tampa has faced two solid defenses in Dallas and New Orleans, but I’m not sure Green Bay is much easier and the Bucs might be running Scotty Miller out as their WR1 with injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones. The vibes coming out of Tampa are just all wrong, so I’ll take Aaron Rodgers and the points and grimace my way through it. Packers +2.5
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have been beating up on the Cardinals for a while now, and I haven’t seen anything from Arizona to convince me this season will be any different. Kyler Murray’s backyard football is exciting to watch, but it hasn’t produced sustained success against the top teams in the league. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are just waiting for another chance to short-circuit those big plays, and the Cards’ defense has taken a big step back this season. I would love to see the line at 3, but Matt Stafford and co. should win by at least a touchdown. Rams -3.5
Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
It’s not necessarily a bad thing to have Jimmy G back under center in San Francisco. Trey Lance wasn’t lighting up the scoreboard in his limited time, and it’s not like the 49ers don’t know what to run with Jimmy around. Denver hasn’t looked great, in large part because of their coach’s struggles with time and game management. It might just be masking a bigger concern, though, which is Russell Wilson’s struggles through two games. Against two mediocre defenses, he’s completed under 60% of his passes and thrown only two touchdowns while gaining 5 yards on the ground and being sacked 5 times. Maybe the Broncos will figure everything out soon, but I don’t want to bet on it happening against Nick Bosa. 49ers -1.5
New York Giants -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Giants will be 15-0 before I start to reconsider my stance on Daniel Jones. Yes, Brian Daboll seems like a solid head coach. They couldn’t score more than 21 points against the Titans or Panthers, and the Dallas defense is a class ahead of both of those teams. The Cowboys owned the Giants last year, and I think Cooper Rush is good enough to keep their offense afloat and competitive against Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones! Cowboys +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
