2023 NFL Picks Week 2: That's More Like It
Last Week: 10-6
This Week:
What a week! I wish there was some more data behind it, but a lot of our picks in Week 1 were based on ignoring offseason hype (see: Bears over/under of 7.5 wins). Whatever the methodology, it worked in our favor and we’re looking good heading into Week 2. I jumped on some of these lines early in the week because 1) I’m on vacation with the family in Cabo San Lucas, and 2) some of them, like Cowboys -3 before the Jets-Bills Monday Night game, were too juicy to pass up. I’ll try to address it if there’s significant line movement, but that’s pretty unusual. And Kirby, if you’re reading this, you never get to complain about me doubting the Vikings again. What a betrayal.
On to the picks!
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sure, it would have been nice to get this line without the extra half point (and, in fact, it’s fallen to 6 since I locked it in), but that’s what happens when you faceplant in Week 1 against Baker Mayfield despite Justin Jefferson racking up 150 receiving yards. The Vikings are entirely incapable of running the ball, and the Eagles will be licking their chops to play a one-dimensional offense led by Kirk Cousins. The biggest risk I can see is a backdoor cover, but Philly won eight games by at least eight points in the regular season last year, including a 24-7 stomping of Minnesota in Week 2. Do we really think things have evened out since then? Eagles -7.5
Atlanta Falcons +1 vs. Green Bay Packers
Congrats to the Falcons on picking up a win over the Panthers in Week 1. Their two late touchdowns from rookie sensati-wait, what’s that? Bijan wasn’t the one putting the game away, it was last year’s breakout running back Tyler Allgeier? Seems like there might be a lesson there about using high picks to draft running backs. It’s a little strange to see Atlanta listed as an underdog after winning 24-10, but they were playing a rookie quarterback and only pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Packers also got a win against a terrible team, but their game was never in doubt. Jordan Love certainly won’t be facing his first ferocious, NFL-level defense in this matchup, so I like Green Bay to win. Packers -1
Buffalo Bills -10 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Bills somehow managed to lose to a Zach Wilson-led Jets team, but those rollercoaster games are just part of the Josh Allen package against top defenses these days. I don’t think the Raiders are good at all, but people are all worked up about their win (the line is down to 8.5 now) over last year’s most disappointing team even though Denver might have won if not for a missed extra point and a missed field goal. No one should be celebrating in the Vegas locker room, and they won’t be after this game. Bills -10
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati has a good record against the Ravens in recent years, but they’re just 1-1 in games when Lamar Jackson played. Baltimore has rolled out Josh Johnson, Tyler Huntley, and Anthony Brown in the other matchups and mostly kept things close. I wasn’t thrilled with what the Ravens did on offense last week, but this line borders on disrespect. Ravens +3.5
Detroit Lions -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Looks like overreactions on both sides of the matchup. The Lions were solid last week, but they were playing a severely handicapped version of Kansas City. Seattle lost to the Rams, but there’s some divisional weirdness involved in that particular matchup, and Puka Nacua is obviously the next big thing in wide receivers. I don’t know if the Seahawks can win, but good things don’t happen to the Lions and they almost lost to a team that couldn’t catch any passes. Seahawks +5.5
Houston Texans +1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson is favored on the road in only his second professional start! I didn’t see anything special from either team last week, but Houston was the better team by the end of last season and they both have unproven rookies at quarterback. Let’s take the home team and the points without much evidence for either team having a real edge. Texans +1
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars and their fans are rightly excited about how Calvin Ridley looked in Week 1, and he’ll be able to cause some problems for Kansas City’s defense. I hoped to see a more dominant overall performance from Jacksonville to really feel like they’ve arrived or taken another step forward from last year. The Chiefs were tough to watch last Thursday, but they were playing a much better opponent than Jacksonville did and should have Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back this week. A field goal isn’t much for an Andy Reid team with extra rest and a real urgency to avoid an 0-2 start. Chiefs -2.5
Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Of course the Justin Herbert-Kellen Moore era couldn’t get off to a perfect start, but it was nice to see the Chargers at least put up some numbers with the talent they have! The 34 points they dropped on a talented Vic Fangio defense tied their highest output from last season and gave them a chance to win despite a monster day from Tyreek Hill. Tennessee and Ryan Tannehill looked utterly lost on offense, and I just don’t know enough about the Derek Carr version of the Saints to pass judgment on their defense. I don’t think the Titans can make Herbert consistently uncomfortable in the pocket, and they definitely won’t be cracking 30 points unless Derrick Henry turns back the clock. I’m willing to bet against him finding that gear again here. Chargers -3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Chicago Bears
I mean, I’m not blown away by Tampa Bay’s win over Minnesota. They were my favorite medium-sized underdog to win outright, but I didn’t want to pick Baker Mayfield for obvious reasons. This one feels a lot clearer, because Lavonte David and Devin White seem like the perfect foil to Justin Fields’ broken-play improv ball, and it doesn’t look like Chicago is bringing much else to the table this season. That was a ghastly performance against Green Bay, and until further notice, my Bears need more than three points on the road. Buccaneers -3
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 vs. New York Giants
The Cardinals managed a noble riposte to Washington’s attack last week, but now they host a team with competent coaching and reasonable talent. Are the Giants much better than the Commanders? Of course not! But Josh Dobbs isn’t winning games any time soon, and Brian Daboll’s squad will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing performance against the Cowboys. They may only score 25, but that’s enough to cover this line. Giants -4.5
Los Angeles Rams +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
What a game by Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua! The Rams straight up dominated the Seahawks last week and made me eat my words about what they could do without Cooper Kupp or Jalen Ramsey. I guess they can draft better receivers than the Chiefs no matter how late their picks come in the draft. Unfortunately, they play a star-studded team on both sides of the ball this week; they would need some top-end talent to keep up with San Francisco, and this iteration of the Rams doesn’t have it. 49ers -7
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. New York Jets
I was excited to get this line before Aaron Rodgers got injured on Monday Night Football. The Jets might have a top-tier defense (might - it’s only been one game), but the Cowboys are the real deal on that side of the ball and they’ll be harassing Zach Wilson all game long. The line has jumped to 9.5, but I’d still be taking Dallas at that number. Luckily, I don’t have to, and I’m counting my early line for the picks because I called this one from the jump and will be wallowing in schadenfRodgers for at least a few more weeks. Cowboys -3
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders
This is the kind of game that makes me hate picking every matchup each week. Was the Denver performance in the first half a preview of what they can do with Sean Payton running the show? Or did they just find a little magic they couldn’t replicate in the second half? Should we expect Washington to be even worse than they were against the Cardinals? Or was that a basement-level showing and they’re just a Jacoby Brissett appearance away from being a Wild Card team? I’m not sure which way to go on either team, but I need to see more from Russell Wilson before I bet on him again. Commanders +3.5
New England Patriots +2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Bill Belichick, despite terrible assistant coaching decisions, can slow down an opposing offense as well as anyone in the league today. Can he do it against this Miami team, though? The Patriots had a lot of trouble with Tyreek Hill when he was on the Chiefs, and he doesn’t look like he’s lost a step. I think New England can still make a nice playoff run, but I don’t think they’re ready for what Miami’s offense will throw at them and they don’t have the weapons on offense to keep pace. Dolphins -2.5
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Ehhh…I don’t think I found a single lesson watching either of these teams in Week 1. New Orleans played an old school knuckle-dragger from the 60s against Tennessee, and Carolina looked like a team starting a rookie quarterback without much talent around him. I don’t feel good about either team here, but New Orleans has the edge in proven NFL talent. Saints -3
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 vs. Cleveland Browns
One game and the Cleveland Browns are favorites on the road against a division rival. They looked good against Cincinnati last week, but as I mentioned in last week’s picks, the Bengals have been slow starters in recent years. Pittsburgh will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start and they need to bounce back in a big way after being whooped by San Francisco. I expect Deshaun Watson to have a tougher day against T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick than he did Cincy, and Kenny Pickett will be happy to play anyone besides the Niners. Steelers +1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
