2023 NFL Picks Week 3: Keep Them (Road) Doggies Rollin'
Another good week in the books even with the Vikings’ loathsome backdoor cover to start things off last Thursday. I’m picking against them again this week, because I’m quarantined in the home office/guest bedroom with COVID and feeling a bit spiteful; we’ll see who comes out on top.
If you didn’t think this season was weird enough, the most exciting games on the slate might be Lions-Falcons and Bengals-Rams, a quartet including exactly one playoff team from last season. The NFL is as unpredictable and enjoyable as ever. Let’s get into the matchups!
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 vs. New York Giants
I thought the biggest risk coming into this game was the injury status of San Francisco’s offensive weapons on a short week, starting with Brandon Aiyuk, who never saw the field, Deebo Samuel suffered a rib injury during the game and it didn’t matter one bit. The Niners stacked up 30 points and made Daniel Jones look like the guy from the first six quarters of the Giants season. Double digits is a tall ask, but San Francisco is one of maybe four teams in the NFL you shouldn’t mind taking anyway. 49ers -10.5
Cleveland Browns -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Nick Chubb is out for the season, robbing me of a top-end fantasy running back and all of us of a positive reason to watch the Cleveland Browns. Now it’s up to Myles Garrett and Deshaun Watson to carry the Browns to the playoffs. Garrett will probably hold up his end of the bargain, but Watson is only completing 55% of his passes through the first two games, a hair below his rate over six games last year. The Titans’ offense at least looked functional against the Chargers last week, and Mike Vrabel gives them the kind of coaching edge I love pairing with a medium-sized underdog line. Titans +4.5
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Here it is, a matchup between two teams who struggled to overcome their terrible defenses last season and spent first round picks on running backs. David Montgomery is out for the Lions and Tyler Allgeier saw his snap percentage fall from 56% in Week 1 to 44% in Week 2, so we might be treated to an old school showdown between Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. I don’t know if Atlanta can go into Detroit and come away with a win, but with all of the Lions’ injuries and their struggles against the run last season, I’m happy to take the points. Falcons +3.5
Green Bay Packers -2 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are currently 4th in defensive DVOA, nestled right between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. The Jordan Love Packers haven’t played a high-quality NFL defense yet, so this will be a big test for the young quarterback. I think Matt LaFleur will dial up some big gains against New Orleans, but I’m not sure Green Bay’s defense has answers for Derek Carr throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy (for now) Michael Thomas. It won’t be pretty, but I like what I’ve seen from the Saints in close, ugly games. Saints +2
Jacksonville Jaguars -9 vs. Houston Texans
We’ll get to the Jets and Patriots later, but division rivalries can produce some weird results. Would you have guessed that the Houston Texans were 19-5 against the Jaguars since the start of the 2011-12 season? That’s a pretty lopsided run even acknowledging how bad Jacksonville has been in stretches. Of course, Trevor Lawrence may have helped them exorcize their bull-shaped demons in a 31-3 beatdown in Week 17 of last year, but this Texans team comes in a little different with DeMeco Ryans coaching and C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson leading the youth movement. I don’t think we’ve seen enough from the Jags this year to bank on them covering more than a touchdown unless it’s against a team like the Cardinals or Bears. Texans +9
Miami Dolphins -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
So the Dolphins are at home, with a better offense and defense, a healthier roster, and…they’re giving less than a touchdown? Something smells a little foul here, but watching the Broncos go from up 21-3 to down 35-24 against Sam Howell was pretty brutal. The Commanders have some weapons, but they aren’t loaded and defense was supposed to be the calling card of this year’s Denver squad. Patrick Surtain II can only cover one of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Miami gets ahead early and Russ struggles against a Dolphins defense looking to make a statement, we’ll have a blowout. Dolphins -6.5
Minnesota Vikings EVEN vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers West vs. Chargers Midwest! These teams really feel like bizzaro versions of each other, with Justin Herbert playing the role of a much-more-talented but less-winning version of Kirk Cousins to this point in his career. Justin Jefferson is going to have a big day against Brandon Staley’s defense just like Tyreek Hill did in Week 1, but Minnesota can’t do what Miami did in the other facets of offense. The Chargers are too good to fall to 0-3 against this Minnesota team, and Herbert will be able to handle the blitzes Brian Flores sends his way. Chargers (West) to Win
New York Jets +3 vs. New England Patriots
Here we go, another divisional landslide: since the beginning of the 2011-12 season, New England is 22-2 against the Jets, with both losses coming in overtime. Only two of those wins have come by less than three points. Is Zach Wilson going to turn that trend around now? Yeah, I don’t think so either. Quick shoutout to the awesome field goal block New England schemed up against Miami - maybe that will be the difference in getting a cover here. Patriots -3
Baltimore Ravens -8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This line feels big, but I’m banking on a bit of divisional superiority here to carry the day. Baltimore is 2-0 with wins over the Texans (25-9) and Bengals. Indianapolis is 1-1 with a win over the Texans (31-20) and a loss to the Jaguars. Losing Anthony Richardson isn’t as big of an immediate step back as a normal QB1 injury with his inexperience and Gardner Minshew ready to step in, but the Colts just don’t have a lot of top-end talent on either side of the ball. The Ravens need to win big against teams like Indy to remain in the top contenders tier, and Lamar needs a big scoring day before I really buy their revamped receiving corps. I’m expecting big things from them here in Week 3. Ravens -8
Washington Commanders +6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Congratulations to Sam Howell and the Commanders for rallying to a big win over the Broncos last week just like the Raiders did in Week 1. Washington actually presents some matchup problems for Buffalo, with a deep set of hyper-athletic defensive linemen capable of bothering and containing Josh Allen. Their offense poses some problems as well, but Buffalo is still a really good team on both sides of the ball. Unless they start suffering some of the big injuries they endured last season, I like them giving less than a touchdown to the middling teams in the league. Bills -6.5
Seattle Seahawks -6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is out, which means Andy Dalton will be under center for the Panthers this week. Much like the Colts, Carolina shouldn’t suffer too much in the short term; Young wasn’t playing particularly well, and Dalton might provide some of the veteran steadiness they need to get on track. Brian Burns and the rest of the Carolina defense is in line for a big day against Seattle’s banged-up offensive line, and I expect the Panthers to rediscover last year’s run game at some point. I know it’s in Seattle, but 6 is a lot of points against a Seahawks’ defense that can’t stop anyone. Panthers +6
Arizona Cardinals +12 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Arizona is 0-2 but 2-0 against the spread with closer-than-expected games against the Commanders and Giants so far. This Cowboys team, with or without Trevon Diggs, is a big step ahead of their NFC East brethren. I see this game playing out like the second half of Giants-Cardinals in Week 2, but with even less of a home-field advantage for Arizona. Flying through the Phoenix airport this week I saw a ton of Cowboys gear, and it’s not late enough in the season for Dallas to take their gut-punch loss. Cowboys -12
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 vs. Chicago Bears
This is a good chance to see if the Chiefs’ receivers are hearing footsteps when they drop Patrick Mahomes’ passes or if they just have butterfingers, because no one in the Chicago secondary will be close to them. The Bears have looked entirely lost on defense against both the Packers and the Bucs, and Kansas City won’t have trouble scheming up ways to score 30+. The Bears just can’t keep up against teams this good, whether Justin Fields stops playing like a robot or not. Chiefs -12.5
Las Vegas Raiders +1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Josh McDaniels is not a good NFL head coach. Mike Tomlin definitely is, and T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward must be salivating at the sight of the Vegas offensive line after dealing with the Niners and Browns in the first two weeks. I don’t like what Pittsburgh has showed us on offense so far, but it won’t matter against the league’s bottom tier as long as everyone stays healthy. Steelers -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Baker Mayfield storyline has been fun, but enough is enough. Taking on the Vikings and Bears hardly suggests a meaningful development in your abilities. Philadelphia’s defensive line will be getting after Baker all evening, and Jalen Hurts should be cracking 30 points again, like they have in 8 of their last 12 games. Eagles -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This line moved at least three points during the week, so I’m thinking there’s something genuinely wrong with Joe Burrow’s calf. In any case, the Rams have proven to be a good and dangerous team with Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, and I need some evidence Burrow is feeling better before I take Cincinnati again; 152 passing yards per game isn’t going to get the job done. If the Bengals rediscover their form from last season, they can win this one running away, but until I see those flashes I like the points. Rams +6.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
